Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
• Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Alimentation Couche-Tard just withdrew their offer to buy Seven&i for $47.2bn, and within two days, Seven’s share price is down 12.5% and ACT’s is up 10.6%.
• Seven’s management deluded itself into thinking it could match ACT’s returns by selling off non-core assets. This is pure financial gimmickry, and the market sees right through it.
• Seven will never see a deal as good as the one ACT offered, and failing to capitalize on should be investigated as a potential crime against common sense.

• ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
• Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
• The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes again US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$550mm a day. Meituan the top buy extending a very strong 12 week run.
• Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. INFO TECH negative again after two weeks of buying broke a three-month sell streak.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Korea surpassed France as the top exporter of cosmetics to the USA in 2024. Korea exported $1.7 billion worth of cosmetics to the USA in 2024, up 54.2% YoY.
• CJ Olive Young’s online cosmetic sales to overseas markets soared 70% YoY in 1H 2025, fueled largely by the explosive demand from the United States.
• We have raised our NAV valuation of CJ Corp to 207,713 won per share (up 28%). We raised the valuation of CJ Olive Young to 7 trillion won. 

• Concerns for sugar cane yields and sugar content in major sugar market exporter
• China’s soybean import demand reached record seasonal high, following Brazilian crop
• Short covering seen in grain complex, USDA trimmed US corn availability expectations, driving force behind corn price recovery; tariff impacts on Brazilian products into US market, potential changes in sweetener mix for Coca Cola

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
• In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).

• The company that describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company positioned at the nexus of brands, retailers and consumers is to debut on Wednesday, July 23rd.
• According to guidance, that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with long-only, 1-on-1 conversions including anchor indications.
• The company showed solid growth in 2024 of nearly 19% and followed that up with solid flash numbers of +7.5% growth in Q2.

• In 25Q1, Jin Jiang did not show a turning point in performance.There’s uncertainty about whether 2025 performance target can be achieved due to low efficiency of membership system/weak overseas business.
• The growth of the core mid-to-low end economic market is weak.The transition to the high-end market or international expansion is difficult to shoulder the banner of growth in short term.
• Valuation of Jin Jiang could be lower than Atour and H World Group, who have found new development paths and growth points.A relatively conservative valuation range is P/E of 15-18x.

• JB Hi-Fi Limited has presented a mixed financial performance for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, showcasing its resilience in a competitive and challenging retail environment.
• The company reported a solid increase in total sales across its key divisions, namely JB Hi-Fi Australia, JB Hi-Fi New Zealand, and The Good Guys.
• Total sales in JB Hi-Fi Australia grew by 7.2%, reaching AUD 3.88 billion, while JB Hi-Fi New Zealand exceeded expectations with a 20% rise in sales to NZD 202.5 million.