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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Piolax Inc, Tencent, Melco International Development, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, DigiPlus Interactive , Dhampur Bio Organics, Megmilk Snow Brand, Morinaga Milk Industry Co, JP-HOLDINGS, INC., Globus Spirits and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Piolax (5988 JP) – Murakami-San Gets BIG Buyback Tender Offer
  • Asian Equities: It’s China’s Year – Our “China Twelve” In the Year of the Snake
  • StubWorld: Melco Is Trading Too Tight
  • Companies with More Cash on Hand Are Expected to Use Cross-Shareholdings to Repurchase Shares
  • Digiplus Interactive (PLUS PM): FY24 Earnings Preview, Cheap Despite Quadrupling Since Jan 2024
  • Dhampur Bio Organics Limited: Q3 & 9M FY25 Quarterly Update
  • Megmilk Snow Brand (2270 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Morinaga Milk Industry Co (2264 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • JP-HOLDINGS, INC. (2749 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Globus Spirits Limited Q3 FY25: Navigating Cost Pressures & Charting Future Growth


Piolax (5988 JP) – Murakami-San Gets BIG Buyback Tender Offer

By Travis Lundy

  • Piolax Inc (5988 JP) is a small, low ROE, over-capitalised autoparts maker mostly making low-moat parts, but they sell A LOT of them. About a gajillion. 
  • They started 100% div payout ratios 3yrs ago, and last year started a new MTMP to pay out 100% and then buy back a lot of stock. Murakami bought 10%.
  • In November they launched a big buyback. Now they are launching a 23.78% Tender Offer Buyback where Murakami-san will sell. Big accretion on forward expectations downgrades. Hmmm… 🤨

Asian Equities: It’s China’s Year – Our “China Twelve” In the Year of the Snake

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • We believe in 2025 HK/China shall outperform EM. While the undervalued and under-owned characteristic of the China market is well-known, monetizability of China’s technological capabilities has become apparent only recently.
  • Policy stimuli during the upcoming NPC could catalyze consumer sentiment and market performance. China’s structural hurdles, Debt, Demographics and Deflation, remain. But correct stock and sector selection can generate alpha.
  • We prefer the internet platforms, consumer discretionary and high dividend yield, the latter largely SOEs. Our “China Twelve” are mostly reasonably valued (low teen PE), with double digit EPS growth.

StubWorld: Melco Is Trading Too Tight

By David Blennerhassett

  • At an 8% discount to NAV, Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Companies with More Cash on Hand Are Expected to Use Cross-Shareholdings to Repurchase Shares

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Stock sale allows brokers to pass on to the company the attraction of being able to diversify its shareholders, and the cross-shareholding sales scheme allows them to obtain higher commissions.
  • One of the solutions that companies have come up with in the absence of improved return on capital is to reduce their policy shareholdings.
  • The use of share repurchases to buy back cross-shareholdings is a very good way to improve return on capital because it also reduces the amount of cash on hand.

Digiplus Interactive (PLUS PM): FY24 Earnings Preview, Cheap Despite Quadrupling Since Jan 2024

By Sameer Taneja

  • DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) has seen remarkable performance lately, with its share price increasing by 20% this month, 32% YTD, and 300% since January 2024.
  • The share price performance is driven by optimism over the company’s shortlisting for a Brazilian operating license and a recent broker upgrade with a bold price target of 55.4 pesos.
  • Currently trading at 13.7x and 10.5x FY24/25 PE with an ROCE exceeding 35%, we anticipate the next catalyst will be the company’s strong FY24 earnings report in April.

Dhampur Bio Organics Limited: Q3 & 9M FY25 Quarterly Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Dhampur Bio Organics (DBOL IN)’ Q3 FY25 revenue surged 74.33% YoY, fueled by robust sugar and country liquor performance amid increased sales volumes.
  • The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and positions DBO to transition toward value-added sugar production, mitigating commodity risks.
  • Despite operational challenges and declining EBITDA margins, DBO’s strategic focus on premiumization and improved cane development underscores resilient long-term growth potential.

Megmilk Snow Brand (2270 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Megmilk Snow Brand’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 revenue was JPY469.7bn (+2.0% YoY), with operating profit at JPY16.3bn (+0.0% YoY).
  • Dairy Products segment revenue reached JPY197.8bn (+1.5% YoY), while operating profit was JPY8.0bn (+0.7% YoY).
  • Beverages and Desserts segment revenue totaled JPY203.8bn (+3.8% YoY), with operating profit at JPY5.5bn (+0.4% YoY).

Morinaga Milk Industry Co (2264 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales were JPY430.7bn (+1.8% YoY), with operating profit at JPY2.5bn (-8.9% YoY).
  • Net income fell by 76.5% YoY due to reduced operating and recurring profits and absence of prior extraordinary gains.
  • Sales increased across all business segments, but operating profits declined due to rising costs and promotional expenses.

JP-HOLDINGS, INC. (2749 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 6.5% YoY, with operating profit and recurring profit growing 25.5% and 28.1% YoY, respectively.
  • The company opened 20 new facilities, including nurseries and after-school clubs, expanding its child-rearing support facilities.
  • Net income attributable to owners rose 36.6% YoY, driven by increased child enrollment and revised staffing ratios.

Globus Spirits Limited Q3 FY25: Navigating Cost Pressures & Charting Future Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Globus Spirits (GBSL IN)’ Q3 FY25 performance saw a 12.5% YoY revenue decline and significant cost pressures, while its consumer segment, especially luxury posted remarkable double-digit growth.
  • After reduction of FCI price, Company anticipate achieving margins of Rs. 5-7 per liter from ethanol, aiming for a long-term average of Rs. 7 per liter.
  • From Q4 onwards, manufacturing segment will also perform well along with growth in the consumer segment as well.

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Daily Brief Financials: Block , Link REIT, Westpac Banking, Commerzbank AG, Grandy House, Hana Financial, Beneficient, Mercuria Holdings, Monex Group Inc, ONDO INSUR TECH and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Block CEO: Twitter Evolution, Bitcoin and Digital Freedom
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Feb-2025): HK’s Link REIT Manager Now Offers Private Funds.
  • EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
  • UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank’s CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges
  • Grandy House (8999 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)
  • BENF: F3Q25 Earnings – EPS Miss Near-Term Holding Pattern on Growth
  • Mercuria Holdings (7347 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
  • Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 13/02/2025


Block CEO: Twitter Evolution, Bitcoin and Digital Freedom

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Jack Dorsey’s interest in understanding what was happening in neighborhoods led him to programming
  • The original vision for Twitter was simply to be able to see what friends were doing and share updates
  • The development of new features on Twitter, such as replies, hashtags, and retweets, was driven by how people were using the platform and their needs for public conversation and sharing information.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-Feb-2025): HK’s Link REIT Manager Now Offers Private Funds.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Link REIT’s HK manager is starting a private funds venture in the market, showcasing a new area of investment and growth potential.
  • Yanlord is looking to sell a half-stake in an Anson Road project for $240M, indicating a strategic move in their property portfolio.
  • Weave Living is expanding its presence in Singapore with 2 new locations, adding a total of 330 units to their portfolio.

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) – Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. 
  • Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
  • The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.

UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank’s CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Commerzbank’s Strong Standalone Outlook: The bank exceeded 2024 targets, announced a 100% payout ratio by 2028, and aims for €14.2 billion in revenue and 15% RoTE by 2028, reducing the urgency for a sale.
  • UniCredit’s Takeover Strategy: UniCredit has secured a 28% synthetic stake in Commerzbank and plans to convert it into equity by mid-2025, with a potential >€20/share bid expected late 2025/early 2026.
  • Political and Regulatory Challenges: The German government (12% owner), labor unions, and local politicians oppose the deal, citing financial sovereignty concerns, making a near-term takeover highly uncertain despite UniCredit’s strategic push.

Grandy House (8999 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Grandy House’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales reached JPY40.0bn, with operating profit at JPY713mn, and net income at JPY218mn.
  • The Real Estate Sales segment saw YoY growth, while Pre-cut Parts faced declines due to weak housing starts.
  • Total assets decreased to JPY69.9bn, driven by reduced inventories; total liabilities fell to JPY45.4bn.

Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

By Victor Galliano

  • Our weighted metrics of share valuations, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into an investment valuation matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations
  • We stick with Hana Financial for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for management to deliver on its Value-Up plan over the medium term
  • Woori is the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and its improving pre- and post-provision returns along with efficiency ratio

BENF: F3Q25 Earnings – EPS Miss Near-Term Holding Pattern on Growth

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Key F3Q25 takeaways include: 1) while we expect loan originations to remain limited in the near term, the pending approval of the Public Stockholder Enhancement Transactions likely drives sustainable growth in volumes over time 2) the recently announced acquisition of Mercantial Bank extends the company’s custody services, with a focus on higher-fee digital assets, thereby further diversifying BENF’s revenue base and 3) our lower earnings outlook primarily reflects OpEx generally consistent with F325 run-rates combined with a flatter revenue trajectory, with growth mostly dependent on reaccelerating loan originations.
  • While we still see considerable upside potential for the stock over time, we recognize a meaningful upward revaluation likely necessitates sustained growth in loan origination volumes driving an inflection in profitability.
  • That said, BENF’s Tangible Book Value (TBV) per share of ~$1.15 likely provides downside support for the stock.

Mercuria Holdings (7347 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Mercuria Investment Co., Ltd. reported a 4.7% YoY decline in operating revenue to JPY5.6bn, with gross profit rising 12.2% YoY.
  • Recurring profit decreased 23.9% YoY to JPY1.2bn, affected by increased SG&A expenses and investment losses in fund investments.
  • FY12/25 earnings forecast projects operating revenue of JPY6.4–9.1bn and a dividend forecast of JPY22.0 per share.

Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated net operating revenue was JPY18.2bn, down 15.0% YoY, up 17.7% QoQ, with commissions received at JPY7.9bn.
  • US segment net operating revenue increased 1.8% YoY, decreased 1.1% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at USD59.1mn.
  • Crypto Asset segment net trading income rose 121.2% YoY, 140.6% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at JPY6.3bn.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 13/02/2025

By Hybridan

  • The Company which designs, manufactures and supplies critical components, modules, systems and associated services to the energy, medical and industrial sectors has today announced that its subsidiary Booth Industries, has secured a new £4.5m contract to supply pressure-rated fire doors for HS2.
  • The contract expands upon Booth Industries’ involvement in the HS2 project, following the £36m contract secured in September 2020 to supply cross passage doors for the London-to-West Midlands segment of the route.
  • Booth will begin mass production of the cross-passage sliding doorsets in its 600m², production cell during 2025. 

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Daily Brief Health Care: Daiichi Sankyo, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Kestra Medical Technologies, Veeda Clinical Research Ltd, Natco Pharma, Nektar Therapeutics, Cybin , Canbas Co Ltd, Aethlon Medical , NLS Pharmaceutics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small
  • Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma
  • Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Device IPO
  • Veeda Clinical Research Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Natco Pharma Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis: 20% Lower Circuit Post Result
  • Nektar Therapeutics: Potential Blockbuster Drug and Mispricing Amidst Re-Analyzed Data and Legal Dispute with Lilly
  • Cybin, Inc.: A Cash Flow Analysis
  • Canbas Co Ltd (4575 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
  • Aethlon Medical Inc – The company expects to conduct a capital raise that
  • NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP) Core Investment Case 13022025


Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small

By Akshat Shah

  • Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Given its similarity to Hong Kong-listed Hansoh Pharma, we think it is worth a comparison between the two.
  • Both companies are decent biopharma players and are trading at a premium to other pharmaceutical company peers. Upon comparison, we think Hengrui’s H should be at a premium to Hansoh.

Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Device IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • They are a commercial-stage, wearable medical device and digital healthcare company focused on transforming patient outcomes in cardiovascular disease.
  • As of January 31, 2025, the ASSURE WCD is actively being prescribed by more than 550 hospitals and has been worn by over 17,000 patients.
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the last week of February or the first week of March. 

Veeda Clinical Research Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Veeda Clinical Research Ltd (3340714Z IN)  (VCRL) is looking to raise about US$115m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, CLSA, IIFL, SBI.
  • VCRL is a global contract research organization offering comprehensive drug development services, including non-clinical, pre-clinical, clinical trials, and studies across diverse drug types like generics, biosimilars, and medical devices.
  • The company operates in key global markets, including North America, Europe, and Asia, with a presence in India.

Natco Pharma Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis: 20% Lower Circuit Post Result

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • There will be significant drop in revenue in FY26 due to the loss of exclusivity of the key product, but company is looking for acquisition & doing R&D.  
  • Natco is focusing on launching the oral version of Semaglutide in the Indian market and is awaiting regulatory approvals for clinical trials.
  • Primary reason of fall in revenue was the absence of sales from a key product.

Nektar Therapeutics: Potential Blockbuster Drug and Mispricing Amidst Re-Analyzed Data and Legal Dispute with Lilly

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Nektar Therapeutics trades at 50% of its cash, with potential upside from its atopic dermatitis treatment and Dapirolizumab royalties.
  • Rezpegaldesleukin’s re-analyzed EASI75 delta is 21%, potentially increasing to 43% due to data anomalies.
  • NKTR’s litigation against Eli Lilly for data misanalysis could result in substantial compensation if settled.

Cybin, Inc.: A Cash Flow Analysis

By Water Tower Research

  • 3QFY25 earnings release. The most important pieces of information from the earnings release of a late clinical-stage biotech company like Cybin (NYSE: CYBN) are principally updates on upcoming clinical milestones and the state of its balance sheet.
  • On this basis, we highlight the key takeaways from Cybin’s 3QFY25 earnings report that was released this week.
  • Milestones update. The release hinted at slight timeline slippages in upcoming milestones, which can be considered the normal course of business in the clinical research world.

Canbas Co Ltd (4575 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • CanBas reported no operating revenue and a net loss of JPY480mn, with R&D expenses increasing by 33.9% YoY.
  • Total assets rose by JPY699mn due to stock acquisition rights exercise, increasing cash and deposits by JPY973mn.
  • Phase 3 clinical trial preparation in Europe for CBP501 is ongoing, with anticipated costs of approximately JPY5.5bn.

Aethlon Medical Inc – The company expects to conduct a capital raise that

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The company expects to conduct a capital raise that, along with the expected (and recent) exercise of outstanding warrants, could extend its cash runway significantly.
  • Additionally, AEMD has made cost reductions and also stands to benefit from the up to 43.5% cash tax rebate on clinical trial-related R&D costs in Australia and lower costs of conducting clinical trials in India.
  • Separately, while the company’s near-term focus is on assessing the Hemopurifier as a potential treatment for oncology, longer-term AEMD continues to view the device as a potential tool in the treatment of viruses, organ transplants and other medical areas.

NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP) Core Investment Case 13022025

By ACF Equity Research

  • NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP:NasdaqCM) is a clinical-stage Swiss foreign issuer biotech advancing the Dual Orexin Receptor Agonist (DOXA) platform, a next-generation approach to treating neurological, neurodegenerative (NDD), and metabolic disorders.
  • The DOXA platform is designed to restore orexin signaling and modulate neuroinflammatory pathways, offering a possible market leading approach to sleep-wake disorders, ALS, and other NDDs. The DOXA platform presents a high-value opportunity for breakthrough therapies, in CNS, immune dysregulation and metabolic medicine.
  • Following shareholder approval and SEC sign off for the merger with KDST, NLSP will divest Mazindol and other assets, to focus on the DOXA pipeline.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Correlation Plumbing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Correlation Plumbing


Correlation Plumbing

By Alpha Exchange

  • Nvidia set a new record for the largest single one day loss of market cap, losing 700 billion on a 17% down move
  • Market risk is about being wrongly sized and underestimating volatility, diversifying assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and broad market put spreads is recommended
  • Financial market insurance is not like hurricane insurance, as exposures within markets are interconnected and risk can be amplified when positions are crowded

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Hot Inflation Report and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Hot Inflation Report
  • Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady
  • Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape but Gains for Names to Benefit from a US Focused AI Industry
  • Singapore Market Roundup (12-Feb-2025): Q&M aims to improve margins post expansion: Phillip Securities.


Ohayo Japan | Hot Inflation Report

By Mark Chadwick

  • Strong January CPI raised inflation concerns and doubts about Fed rate cuts, fueling speculation that rates may stay on hold through 2025.
  • Reddit (RDDT) fell 12% on earnings miss and Trade Desk (TTD) dropped 25% after missing Q4 sales and weak Q1 guidance.
  • Japan’s machine tool orders fell 18.8% month-on-month to ¥116.1 billion in January, but rose 4.7% year-on-year, driven by continued export demand

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

By The Circuit

  • Strong quarter with big surprise on EPS and above-expectation guidance
  • Positive performance in PCs and automotive sectors, with design wins and partnerships
  • Concerns over competitive landscape and market expectations, but overall solid performance from Qualcomm and potential for growth opportunities in the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape but Gains for Names to Benefit from a US Focused AI Industry

By Andrew Jackson

  • Softbank racking up big losses in 3Q but market looking to Stargate.
  • Japanese cosmetics names continue to struggle with Kose missing after Shiseido the day before.
  • Toray’s -12% drop yesterday looks excessive given the overall outlook remains buoyant.

Singapore Market Roundup (12-Feb-2025): Q&M aims to improve margins post expansion: Phillip Securities.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Q&M aims to improve margins after expansion phase, says Phillip Securities, indicating positive outlook for the company.
  • DBS remains optimistic on GuocoLand following strong 1HFY2025 performance, highlighting potential growth opportunities.
  • Wilmar faces challenges in China operations, but UOB Kay Hian anticipates a brighter future ahead, suggesting positive changes. Analysts raise DBS target prices above $51, predicting capital returns for investors.

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Daily Brief ECM: Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Innovation and Overseas Expansion Driving Earnings Rebound
  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK): Potential Valuation Upside with Upcoming Mixue IPO
  • CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates
  • WeWork India Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma – “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation


Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
  • He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
  • The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Innovation and Overseas Expansion Driving Earnings Rebound

By Sumeet Singh

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
  • JHP  has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Guming Holdings (1364 HK): Potential Valuation Upside with Upcoming Mixue IPO

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) ‘s shares closed 7% below issue price by end of yesterday’s trading. 
  • Institutional investors may be cautious, with many likely waiting for the upcoming IPO of Mixue Group (MIX HK), widely viewed as a more attractive and bigger opportunity in tea space.
  • The upcoming Mixue IPO—aiming to raise about USD500 million—could spark broader investor interest in the sector and may boost valuations for Guming given its relative operational strengths.

CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about updates from its most recent filings.

WeWork India Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN)  (WIML) is looking to raise about US$450m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JMFin, ICICI, Jefferies, Kotak, 360 One.
  • WIML was established in 2016 under the name, “Halosaur Bengaluru Private Limited” and is backed by Embassy Group. It is one of the leading premium flexible workspace operators.
  • WIML has been the largest operator by total revenue in the past three Fiscals, according to the CBRE Report.

Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma – “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Most revenue was contributed by Kewei, but kewei has been included in VBP.Together with increasing competition, the outlook is gloomy if Sunshine Lake Pharma continues to mainly rely on Kewei.
  • There’s a significant gap in Sunshine Lake Pharma’s R&D progress/clinical data compared to the products of peers.The pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years
  • Sunshine Lake Pharma is inferior to other pharmaceutical companies in China.Even if CJ Pharma will be merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, its market value should be lower than leading Biotech.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Extremes; ChipMOS Still High and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Extremes; ChipMOS Still High
  • DBS – Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.
  • Shimano (7309) | A Slow but Steady Ascent
  • Action Construction Equipment Limited: Q3 FY25 Update
  • Recruit 3Q: Strong Set of Results Despite Slowdown in Labour Markets
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Feb-2025): Foxconn chair denies Nissan takeover, focuses on collaboration.
  • [Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Surpasses Estimates on Strong Gas Trading and Higher LNG Prices
  • American International Group (AIG) – Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024
  • Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Feb-2025): LaSalle appoints APAC Co-Heads; Claire Tang moves to Rava.


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Extremes; ChipMOS Still High

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +24.7% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread At Current Level
  • ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for Closer to Parity Before Going Long Again
  • ChipMOS: +1.8% Premium; Can Continue to Consider Shorting at Current Level

DBS – Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Granular data from DBS shows worsening credit metrics in Greater China and in Hong Kong.
  • We use DBS and other banks, as a window on credit metrics for China banks and HK local banks.
  • The NPL ratio for its HK business moved from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY, while Pillar 3 data shows sharp rise in New NPLs in 2H24

Shimano (7309) | A Slow but Steady Ascent

By Mark Chadwick

  • Cautious but Credible – FY25 guidance underwhelms, but Shimano’s realism is justified. The bike market is recovering, even if 2025 will be a grind.
  • Sitting on a Cash Pile – ¥530 billion in net financial assets, yet capital returns remain restrained. Investors will be watching for bolder moves.
  • Quality Wins – mid-cycle ROIC north of 20% and end-market inventories normalising – a long-term winner at a fair price.

Action Construction Equipment Limited: Q3 FY25 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Action Construction Equipment (ACCE IN)’s Q3/9M-FY25 performance shows strong revenue growth (up 16.6% in Q3, 15.2% over nine months), improved EBITDA margins, and robust unit sales in key equipment segments.
  • Improved product mix and a focus on high-value equipment drive operational efficiency, boosting profitability amid increasing infrastructure and capital expenditure trends.
  • In the next 2 years, company will increase the proportion of exports that will drive the revenue growth.

Recruit 3Q: Strong Set of Results Despite Slowdown in Labour Markets

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 3QFY03/2025 results today which were in line with estimates. Despite labour markets cooling off, Recruit managed to report a strong set of results.
  • The company also has provided revised guidance for full-year FY03/2025 with an upward revision to revenues while Adj. EBITDA is forecast to be above the midpoint of the previous range.
  • Despite the slowdown in labour markets, Recruit’s monetisation efforts have paid off, however, we would not rush to make an entry.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Feb-2025): Foxconn chair denies Nissan takeover, focuses on collaboration.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Foxconn chairman emphasizes collaboration with Nissan, denies interest in takeover, focusing on their partnership.
  • SMIC targets automotive growth, facing competition in China’s chip market, seeking to expand market share.
  • Microip sees 489% revenue growth post-CES success, expanding ‘designless’ strategy, fueling January success.

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Surpasses Estimates on Strong Gas Trading and Higher LNG Prices

By Suhas Reddy

  • In Q4, TotalEnergies beat adjusted net income forecasts by 4.8% and revenue projections by 11%. Adjusted net income and EPS rose by 8.1% QoQ and 9.2%, respectively.
  • TotalEnergies’ average gas price realisation rose 8.3% QoQ, European refining margins surged by 68.2% QoQ, while LNG price realisation rose 4.6%.
  • TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon production rose 0.7% QoQ to 2.43 mboepd, as a 4.5% gas output increase offset a 2.4% oil production decline.

American International Group (AIG) – Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • AIG has completed efforts to reposition itself as a leader in the insurance industry
  • The company has a renewed strategy for growth and improved financial performance
  • A strong leadership team and clear vision for the future position AIG to deliver value for customers and shareholders

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.

By Patrick Liao

  • US-China trade war has led to tariff uncertainties. China’s subsidy program has stimulated pre-purchasing by customers in 1Q25, resulting in increased demand for televisions, tablets, phones, and IT products. 
  • All three major product lines have shown seasonal growth. which LDDI has shown the largest growth, SoC follows closely, and SMDDI has lower growth.
  • DeepSeek will accelerate the implementation and popularization of AI applications, benefiting the company.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Feb-2025): LaSalle appoints APAC Co-Heads; Claire Tang moves to Rava.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • LaSalle appoints Japan, Korea-based APAC Co-Heads as Tang heads to Rava, highlighting leadership changes within the company.
  • Dash Living’s expansion in Japan to 19 locations through partnerships with BlackRock and Greystar reflects their growth strategy in the region.
  • Swire Properties expecting a $103M loss as Pacific Place rents drop 16% due to markdowns, showcasing the impact of market changes on the company.

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Daily Brief Crypto: The More Things Change and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same


The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

By Etherbridge

  • 2025 is off to a tough start. Our call on boring or scary price action seems to be holding up.
  • Bitcoin remains boring and is range-bound between $106k and $91k.
  • Altcoins have been scary, with the average sector down 25%+. Sector Performance for Jan 2025.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger
  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: GTJA, ZTE In; CTG, China Coal Out
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March
  • Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding
  • EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market


Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly, Ingenia Communities (INA AU) and Lifestyle Communities (LIC AU) –  companies which provide low-cost housing needs for working, semi-retired, and/or retired people – are mulling a merger.
  • Part of the rumourmill pivots off of the fact Lifestyle will release its 1H25E results after market on the 24th Feb, shortly ahead of Ingenia’s own release the following morning.
  • Lifestyle’s share price remain 25% adrift of levels shortly ahead of a July 2024 ABC report alleging excessive exit fees. 

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

By Brian Freitas


FXI Rebalance Preview: GTJA, ZTE In; CTG, China Coal Out

By Brian Freitas


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.

Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00 per share, securing over 43% shareholder support. Shareholders will vote on February 28, with deal completion expected in mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.
  • Strategic acquisition boosts Banco BPM’s non-interest income to 50% of total revenues and strengthens its wealth management and insurance business, reinforcing its defense against UniCredit’s €10 billion takeover attempt.
  • Market assigns a 92% probability of deal completion. Shareholders are advised to accept, as failure to tender may result in lower liquidity.

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
  • Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
  • Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.

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Daily Brief Macro: Technically Speaking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)
  • Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March
  • The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?
  • US Inflation Ending Cutting Cycle
  • Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports
  • Trump’s Tariffs: Steel First, and Then Reciprocal and Finally Cars
  • India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan’25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts
  • When Markets Meet Mercantilism
  • Overview #15 – Who’s Afraid of the USD?
  • Trump The Disrupter


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong’s secular bull market gained after DeepSeek’s announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.
  • Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.
  • BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.

Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March

By Douglas Kim

  • Nextrade (NXT) is an alternative trading system (ATS) in Korea which will start to go live on 4 March.
  • Nextrade provided a list of 10 stocks including Lotte Shopping,  Cheil Worldwide,  Kolon Industries, LG Uplus, and S Oil that will start to trade on NXT starting 4 March. 
  • Most of these 10 stocks tend to be lower beta stocks with relatively low amounts of share volatility. These 10 stocks are up on average 2.8% YTD, underperforming KOSPI.

The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.
  • For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.
  • This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.

US Inflation Ending Cutting Cycle

By Phil Rush

  • Intensifying US inflationary pressures significantly exceeded consensus expectations in January, accumulating news potentially worth 1pp in 2026 since the Fed first cut.
  • We now doubt there can be sufficient downside news to offset these hawkish pressures, with the Fed on hold in March. That means we see the next Fed move as a hike in 2026.
  • Annual core inflationary pressures are not outliers in the US, nor is its labour market resilience, so other central banks should struggle to sustain cutting cycles beyond H1.

Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
  • India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
  • ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

Trump’s Tariffs: Steel First, and Then Reciprocal and Finally Cars

By Alex Ng

  • The 25% Steel and Aluminum tariff could have small to modest adverse inflation and GDP growth impacts on the U.S., but reciprocal and more product tariffs create trade policy uncertainty. 
  • This could amplify the impact of the cumulative tariffs under president Trump’s administration.
  • President Donald Trump 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports from March 12 has no exemptions, though Trump did hint at an exemption for Australia on U.S. aircraft imports. 

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan’25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar’25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan’25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. 
  • Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar’25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep’25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. 
  • If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep’25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec’25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. 

When Markets Meet Mercantilism

By Massif Capital Research

  • The global investment landscape is undergoing a paradigm shift as geopolitical risks evolve from transient shocks to structural forces reshaping market efficiency.
  • Historically, markets absorbed episodic geopolitical crises—like oil embargoes or regional conflicts—through short-term volatility and mean-reverting adjustments.
  • However, the post-2020 era has seen economic policy fused with national security imperatives, exemplified by techno-nationalism (e.g., U.S. CHIPS Act), weaponized supply chains (e.g., rare earth export controls), and financial system fragmentation (e.g., SWIFT exclusions).

Overview #15 – Who’s Afraid of the USD?

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia
  • India’s rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market

Trump The Disrupter

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Trump is a disrupter. But it is game change NOT game end.
  • If he as we expect unleashes a global deregulation wave, reins in government, implements Reagonomics 2.0 and level the trade playing field everyone benefits.
  • We are overweight on US equities and the dollar and believe every market dip is an opportunity to exposure in conviction stocks.

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