Smartkarma Daily Briefs, Author at Smartkarma

Nov 22

Daily Brief Private Markets: Turing Space nets US$3M to expand digital identity solutions globally | e27 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

Turing Space nets US$3M to expand digital identity solutions globally | e27

Turing Space nets US$3M to expand digital identity solutions globally | e27

By e27

Turing Space, a Taiwan-based trust-tech company, has raised over US$3 million in a strategic funding round led by Profederal, a corporate counselling platform.
The company plans to use the capital to accelerate research and development of its digital identity infrastructure and expand its operations in Taiwan, Europe, and Japan, where it aims to develop more cross-border verification solutions.
A portion of the funds will also be used to hire new talent and enhance user experience in Taiwan.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Bitcoin Briefly Touched $99 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Bitcoin Briefly Touched $99,000
Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem
How Will Trump’s Renewed Stance on Renewables Impact Indian Energy Companies?
[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:Gaming Sector Update/NTES US/3690 HK/Douyin/BABA US/PDD US/JD US/700HK
WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap Tech Trends for 2025

Ohayo Japan | Bitcoin Briefly Touched $99,000

By Mark Chadwick

U.S. markets advanced Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading gains, rising 1.1%
Honda Motor will begin test production of all solid-state EV batteries in January at a new facility in Tochigi prefecture,
Nissan Motor plans to restructure its Thai operations by fall 2025, affecting around 1,000 employees at its two Bangkok-area plants.

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

By Andrew Jackson

Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.
Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.
Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names – watch Kubota.

How Will Trump’s Renewed Stance on Renewables Impact Indian Energy Companies?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Trump’s new policy on renewables could have significant implications for Indian renewable players, particularly those who heavily rely on exports to the US market.
The potential rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act and the imposition of trade barriers and tariffs could lead to a decrease in demand for Indian solar modules in the US
Waaree Energies, Adani Enterprises, and Vikram Solar, which have a high concentration of exports in their overall revenue, are likely to be the most affected

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK:In the 46th week of 2024, market demand is booming and new brands gain market share.(///////////////)
XPEV US: Xpeng’s vehicle revenue and gross profit margin exceeded expectations in the third quarter, but service revenue was lower than expected, resulting in lower-than-expected profits.(/)
LKNCY US: Luckin Signs Memorandum for Brazilian Coffee Bean Purchases.(+)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:Gaming Sector Update/NTES US/3690 HK/Douyin/BABA US/PDD US/JD US/700HK

By Ying Pan

Gaming Sector Update/NTES US: NPPA Releases November Domestic and Imported Game Approvals(+)
3690 HK/Douyin:Douyin Local Life’s Double 11 Sales Increase by 53% YoY, Indicating Rising Consumer Spending in China, Bodes Well for Meituan.(+)
BABA US/PDD US/JD US: Taobao/Tmall launches “Go Bargain” feature (+/+/+)

WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap Tech Trends for 2025

By Water Tower Research

AI Continues to Grab Investor Interest as Expectations Have It Affecting Nearly Everything AI is in every company now.
It has been having a major impact on the tech sector for some time, it accelerated in 2024, and is likely to continue driving tech in 2025.
Every company is now building neutral networks, and this is driving growth in data centers, hardware, and specifically GFP/AI chips.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount
KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word
Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX
Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

By Travis Lundy

Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line.
There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

By Arun George

The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain.

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup

By Sanghyun Park

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Dec reshuffle looks set—official lineup drops post-close today.
Passive flows for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 are estimated at 40T KRW and 3.5T KRW, based on typical flow sizes until the effective date.
These predictions combine my sim results with reliable local intel. The accuracy’s solid enough to start pulling the trigger on trades.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

By Brian Freitas

There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word

By Brian Freitas

There will be 8 additions and 8 deletions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
Most of the inclusions were forecast but there is a lot of variance among the list of deletions… index committee knows best!
Fadu (440110 KS) was ignored for yet another rebalance, while Snh Inc (051980 KS) has also not been included in the index.

Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …

By David Blennerhassett

Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK), a leading IoT cloud platform in China, was listed on the 18th March 2021 at US$21.00/ADS. The share price is currently down 92.5%.
Tuya subsequently established a primary dual-listing in Hong Kong on the 5th July 2022, priced at HK$19.30/share. Those shares are down ~23%
Temasek-Backed 65 Equity Partners has now acquired a 13% stake (equivalent to ~6.2% of the voting rights) in Tuya, with a view to establishing a secondary listing on the SGX.

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX

By Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) implied volatility fell across the term structure and skew. The skew displays a smile favoring specific option strategies.
The most traded HKEX traded tailor-made combinations are Call and Put Spreads. Straddles, Strangles and Butterflies have become less popular most recently.
While three quarters of all strategies take a long volatility position, there is a balance in bullish, bearish, and market-neutral strategies.

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 9th October, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reached an agreement to buy Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US) for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.
The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.
Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals – notably from China – as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Credit: Adani Green Energy – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Adani Green Energy – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives
Adani Ports – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives – Lucror Analytics
Adani Green Energy – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Adani Green Energy – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives

By Tanvi Arora

The US indictment of key executives is a material credit negative for the Adani Group, with the allegations being more serious than those from Hindenburg Research’s short-sell report in January 2023.
In the near term, the US indictment is likely to constrain the group’s access to financing, particularly in the offshore market.
We note that the Justice Department’s charges are directed at the individual executives, not at Adani Green Energy or other group entities.

Adani Ports – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

The US indictment of key executives is a material credit negative for the Adani Group, with the allegations being more serious than those from Hindenburg Research’s short-sell report in January 2023.
In the near term, the US indictment is likely to constrain the group’s access to financing, particularly in the offshore market.
We note that the Justice Department’s charges are directed at the individual executives, not at Adani Green Energy or other group entities.

Adani Green Energy – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Tanvi Arora

Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) is one of the world’s largest developers and operators of solar and wind power.
The company’s assets are geographically diversified across India, with total locked-in capacity of 20.4 GW (of which 10.9 GW was operational as of June 2024).
AGEL is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Gajah Tunggal, ReNew Energy, Adani Green Energy, Bharti Airtel, UPL Limited
Treasuries fell yesterday, with yields up 1-3 bps across the curve following a soft auction of 20Y notes.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 4.32%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.41%.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief ECM: Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals
FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
FineToday Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth and Margins Have Wavered
LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon
SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation
Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

By Sumeet Singh

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue.
The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

FineToday Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth and Margins Have Wavered

By Sumeet Singh

CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon

By Sanghyun Park

The local market’s buzzing that LG Chem could face a 200-300 billion KRW tax hit from Pillar Two next year, with LGES ramping up U.S. production.
LG Chem may be reconsidering its plan to sell 2% of its LGES stake, dropping ownership below 80%, shifting the tax burden to LGES instead of itself.
Flagging this now—LG Chem’s tax burden looms. Consider shorting LGES or a long-short with LG Chem, plus prep for the 2T KRW block deal with the pre-disclosure process.

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.

Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds

By Nicholas Tan

Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It operates the second largest and fastest growing postpartum care and recovery service in China, as per Frost & Sullivan. It operates an extensive network of 59 premium postpartum centers.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout
The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 21)
Tuya: Improving Sales Growth and Profit Margins Help to Clench Investment by 65 Equity Partners
DigiPlus (PLUS PM): Brazil License And CasinoPlus Acquisition Game Changing Catalysts For The Future
Straits Trading (STRTR SP): An Undervalued Real Estate Stock with Multitude of Opportunities
PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin
Qualcomm’s $4 Billion PC Chip Bet: Can It Dominate Beyond Smartphones?
[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$33) Target Price Change]: Good Result, and It Will Only Get Better
[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus
Why Ancora Thinks Harmonic Inc. Should Explore a Strategic Sale: What Investors Need to Know!

Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout

By Nimish Maheshwari

Gautam Adani and executives indicted in U.S. for bribery, fraud, and obstructing justice tied to renewable energy projects worth billions.
Allegations spotlight governance risks, promoter-driven models, and transparency issues in Indian conglomerates, threatening investor trust in Adani Group and renewable energy sectors.
Adani Group issued media statement saying that charges in indictment are baseless and denied.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 21)

By David Mudd

Hong Kong is again trading well below its historical multiple valuation levels after the October/November correction. Mainland investors bought a record amount the day after Trump’s win.
Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) reported consensus beating results with its online game segment surging. The company is benefiting from AI upgrades in its office SAAS business.
Precision Tsugami China (1651 HK) posted blockbuster earnings for its 1H25 as the machine tool sector rebounds on the back of factories upgrading to intelligent manufacturing.

Tuya: Improving Sales Growth and Profit Margins Help to Clench Investment by 65 Equity Partners

By Douglas Kim

On 18 November, it was announced that 65 Equity Partners (backed by Temasek) will invest US$100 million (S$134 million) for a 13% stake in Tuya Inc (TUYA US).
Net cash as a percentage of market cap is currently at 92%. Tuya’s sales growth and improvement in operating margin in 1Q-3Q 2024 have also been impressive this year.
Comps are trading at average EV/EBITDA of 13.7x in 2025 versus 2.3x for for Tuya. If Tuya continues its turnaround, its valuation gap versus its peers could decrease further.

DigiPlus (PLUS PM): Brazil License And CasinoPlus Acquisition Game Changing Catalysts For The Future

By Sameer Taneja

DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) presented PSE Star investor day yesterday and briefly analyzed two game-changing catalysts from the call: a) CasinoPlus acquisition and b) Brazil license.
The expected TAM associated with e-games/Bingo in Brazil is 250 bn pesos (4 bn USD), compared to the Philippines, which is currently cycling at 160 bn pesos (Q3 PAGCOR data).
The stock trades at 7.8x FYPE with 15% of the market cap in cash and a 3.8% dividend yield (30% payout ratio) with a seasonal uptick in Q4 FY24.

Straits Trading (STRTR SP): An Undervalued Real Estate Stock with Multitude of Opportunities

By Kilde

Straits Trading (STRTR SP) is a conglomerate-investment company with diversified investments in resources, real estate and hospitality.
Straits Trading’s key growth engine is its real-estate arm – Straits Real Estate (SRE) which has a diversified property portfolio across different geographies and various sectors.
Despite fluctuations in STC’s earnings, the company continues to pay stable dividends to its shareholders. As at the end of June 30, 2024, Straits Trading generated cash and bank balances of SGD476.4m. STC continues to generate positive cash from operations.

PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin

By Ming Lu

In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.
We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.
We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.

Qualcomm’s $4 Billion PC Chip Bet: Can It Dominate Beyond Smartphones?

By Baptista Research

Qualcomm is aggressively pushing into the PC market, aiming to transform its identity from a mobile chip giant to a diversified computing powerhouse.
At its recent investor day, Qualcomm announced bold revenue projections of $4 billion from PC chips by 2029, alongside significant strides in automotive, industrial IoT, and XR markets.
This marks a pivotal moment as Qualcomm ventures beyond its traditional smartphone business, which currently accounts for 75% of its chip revenue.

[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$33) Target Price Change]: Good Result, and It Will Only Get Better

By Eric Wen

Xiaomi reported CY3Q24 revenue, non-IFRS EBIT and non-IFRS net income 4.7%, 7.8%, and 16.6% vs. consensus.
C4Q should be even stronger, as (1) appliance subsidy drive IoT revenue and margin improvement, (2) SU7 production output ~doubles
We reiterate Xiaomi as our TOP BUY idea and raise Xiaomi’s TP to HK$ 33 to reflect the improved profit outlook. Our TP implies 26.6x CY25 P/E.

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

By Eric Wen

TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.
We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.
We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.

Why Ancora Thinks Harmonic Inc. Should Explore a Strategic Sale: What Investors Need to Know!

By Baptista Research

Harmonic reported record results for the third quarter of 2024, with total company revenue and profitability exceeding expectations.
The company’s Broadband and Video segments both contributed significantly to this performance, showcasing strong execution on business plans.
The Broadband revenue reached $145.3 million, marking a 92% year-over-year increase and a 56% sequential increase.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Macro: Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends
EM as an Asset Class 2024
Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty
The Drill: Commodities post Trump election
EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 22 Nov 2024

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory – in particular, “earnings inflections” – i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions.
Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.
We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India’s could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later.

EM as an Asset Class 2024

By At Any Rate

EM sovereign debt has seen significant changes since the pandemic, but no wave of defaults has occurred
China’s debt numbers are higher than Europe’s for the first time, impacting the global market
Sovereign debt restructuring remains a complex and idiosyncratic process, with challenges ahead for debt dynamics and growth in the EM market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

By Andreas Steno

Looking at the current polls, there’s no clear path to a functioning coalition in Germany.
The three potential options are: CDU/CSU pairing with SPD – a move toward stability but lacking excitement; CDU teaming up with the Greens – a less likely scenario given weak polling and major ideological clashes; and finally, the Merz dream coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, which remains far from reaching the crucial 50% mark.
With all three options falling short, creativity (or desperation) might be the only way forward.

The Drill: Commodities post Trump election

By Ulrik Simmelholt

The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet?
This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has begun to return as risks were initially overestimated.
Nuclear energy is likely an underappreciated theme in the new Trump administration, while tariff threats appear overblown.

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

By Phil Rush

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.
The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.
Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 22 Nov 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

The investment side in Malaysia over the post COVID years has really taken off.
In Thailand, private investment contracted (-1.4%), reflecting political and economic challenges driving offshore investments.
Bangkok has seen little progress in mobility since the mid-1990s.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Australia: Arcadium Lithium and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount
Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

By Arun George

The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain.

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 9th October, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reached an agreement to buy Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US) for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.
The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.
Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals – notably from China – as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Thailand: Bangkok Dusit Medical Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Both Thai and Foreign Patient Drive Growth, Margins Expand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Both Thai and Foreign Patient Drive Growth, Margins Expand

By Tina Banerjee

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) posted 6% rise in revenue from hospital operations in 3Q24 as both International and Thai patients revenue reported growth of 8% and 6%, respectively.
EBITDA grew at 8% YoY to THB7.1B, due to cost control while net profit also rose 9% YoY to THB4.2B on lower interest cost.
BDMS opened Phuket Cancer Center in October 2024 which will help expand cancer patient coverage in Southern part of Thailand.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief South Korea: Shinsung Delta Tech, Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp, Sunic System Ltd., LG Energy Solution and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word
LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup

By Sanghyun Park

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Dec reshuffle looks set—official lineup drops post-close today.
Passive flows for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 are estimated at 40T KRW and 3.5T KRW, based on typical flow sizes until the effective date.
These predictions combine my sim results with reliable local intel. The accuracy’s solid enough to start pulling the trigger on trades.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

By Brian Freitas

There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word

By Brian Freitas

There will be 8 additions and 8 deletions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
Most of the inclusions were forecast but there is a lot of variance among the list of deletions… index committee knows best!
Fadu (440110 KS) was ignored for yet another rebalance, while Snh Inc (051980 KS) has also not been included in the index.

LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon

By Sanghyun Park

The local market’s buzzing that LG Chem could face a 200-300 billion KRW tax hit from Pillar Two next year, with LGES ramping up U.S. production.
LG Chem may be reconsidering its plan to sell 2% of its LGES stake, dropping ownership below 80%, shifting the tax burden to LGES instead of itself.
Flagging this now—LG Chem’s tax burden looms. Consider shorting LGES or a long-short with LG Chem, plus prep for the 2T KRW block deal with the pre-disclosure process.

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