Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Constituent changes to the S&P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.5bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&P500 Equal Weight Index.
The Select Sector index trackers and S&P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the S&P500 INDEX and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF will be selling Broadcom (AVGO US) at the same time as the Select Sector and S&P500 Equal Weight Index trackers.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Privatisation by PAG?

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” PAG, the controlling shareholder, likely aims to privatise Fengxiang.
The offer will likely be structured as a privatisation by merger by absorption requiring approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection).
The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates a reasonable offer. An offer of HK$1.80-2.00 (a 21%—33% premium to the last close) could win over these shareholders’ backing.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$204mn One-Way; No Index Changes Likely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see zero index changes based on the latest available data but we estimate there to be US$204mn one-way flows due to capping.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (March 10 – 14): Sentiment Shifts, Option Volumes Cool

By John Ley

Market sentiment shifted again this week, with participation in stock gains dropping sharply from last week’s levels.
Option volumes continued to decline from February peaks, though single stocks saw a notable increase in activity on Friday.
We cover stocks with liquid options that have earnings reports in the coming week.

Hyundai India’s ₹31,500 Cr Related-Party Deal Sparks Governance Debate

By Nimish Maheshwari

Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) has proposed seven related-party transactions worth over INR 31,500 crore, just months after its record-breaking IPO.
Proxy advisors are sharply divided, with concerns around valuation, transparency, and fairness, raising governance red flags for a newly listed company.
Despite likely approval due to promoter holding, investor trust hinges on how Hyundai communicates and ensures accountability post-IPO.

Monster Beverage Corporation: An Insight Into Its Market Share Dynamics

Monster Beverage Company’s recent quarterly and full-year earnings provide insight into both the strengths and challenges faced by the company in a dynamic and competitive market.
The company reported record quarterly net sales of $1.81 billion, reflecting a 4.7% increase over the prior year, or 7.8% on a foreign currency-adjusted basis.
This growth was fueled by a strong performance in the global energy drink market, with particular strength in regions like EMEA and Asia-Pacific, where growth rates reached double digits.

Stellantis: Is There Any Scope For Market Share Improvement In The Near Future?

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Stellantis’ full-year 2024 results present a period of transition and challenge for the company as it navigates a demanding market environment.
The company emphasized a strong focus on product launches, stakeholder trust, and regional empowerment.
Notably, Stellantis launched new models in both the U.S. and Europe, such as the Dodge Daytona, Wagoneer S, and Grande Panda, indicating a strategic push to capture consumer interest.

MBOs Will Rise, Even if Companies and Funds Are Sleeping in the Same Bed but Having Different Dreams

By Aki Matsumoto

Even if a company goes private due to listing costs, it is good for investors to shift to a more share price-conscious management in order to maintain the listing.
Many companies want to take over management rights with the founding family, but find it not easy to continue as a publicly traded company and consider going private.
New problems lie ahead in the coming years between founding families who chose MBO to inherit the management control of “family business” and MBO funds who have to Exit.

LE: Snapping the Catalog: Reaching the Next Level; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End after reviewing the March catalog.
With the March “The Power of Pretty” theme, Lands’ End has taken the next major step in creating a lifestyle driven catalog which can serve as a guide for multiple categories, offerings and looks for the Lands’ End shopper.
Focusing on both “The Power” and “The Pretty” of many categories, the March catalog offers multiple complete looks.

Hormel Foods Corporation: Strategic Transformation & Modernization Initiatives As A Powerful Growth Flywheel!

Hormel Foods Corporation recently held its first quarter earnings call for the fiscal year 2025, presenting a mix of promising developments and ongoing challenges.
The company has demonstrated resilience with a top-line growth of 1% in organic net sales, meeting expectations despite a challenging environment marked by dynamic consumer conditions and supply chain pressures.
Hormel Foods’ strength lies significantly in its value-added product portfolio, which continued to perform well, providing robust growth driven by brands such as SPAM, Applegate, Jennie-O, and Hormel Black Label Bacon.

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Mar 18

Daily Brief Financials: Ping An Insurance (H), Apollo Global Management , Nikkei 225, USD, Klarna Group, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, NIFTY Index, EURO/US DOLLAR, Block , Global Indemnity Group LLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): 2024 Earnings, Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move
Apollo: Connoisseurs of Complexity – [Business Breakdowns, EP.208]
Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance
Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile
Klarna IPO Preview
Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 10 – 14): Relative Strength and Volatility Trends in Focus
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–13): Outperforming SPX in Low-Volatility Trade
Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?
Block Inc: Is The Growth in Gross Payment Volume Here To Stay?
GBLI: Global Indemnity Group releases 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results which showed continued improvement in underwriting efforts.

Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): 2024 Earnings, Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

By Gaudenz Schneider

Ping An Insurance (2318 HK / 601318 CH) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
Option markets are currently pricing in a significantly larger post-announcement price move than historical patterns would suggest.
Two trade examples for calendar spreads, taking advantage of elevated near-term implied volatility, are presented.

Apollo: Connoisseurs of Complexity – [Business Breakdowns, EP.208]

By Business Breakdowns

Analyst and writer based in New York discusses the evolution of financial markets and reflects on personal experiences with Apollo
Apollo is known for its hard work and talent in protecting their capital, with a focus on complexity and balance sheet analysis
Apollo is a global alternative asset manager with around 750 billion in total AUM, divided into yield, hybrid, and equity strategies, making it one of the top players in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.
As explained by Travis Lundy and Brian Freitas the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.
The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.

Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

By At Any Rate

Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollar
Erosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowback
Introduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Klarna IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Klarna is seeking to raise more than $1 billion in the IPO and targeting more than $15 billion in the listing.
Klarna’s operating margin improved from -51.5% in 2022 to -14.2% in 2023, and -4.3% in 2024.
Klarna generated revenue of US$2.8 billion (up 23.5% YoY) and operating loss of US$121 million in 2024 (versus operating loss of US$323 million in 2023).

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 10 – 14): Relative Strength and Volatility Trends in Focus

By John Ley

Kospi’s price action was concentrated in just two days, with the rest of the week marked by quiet trading.
We examine Kospi’s performance relative to SPX within the broader global index landscape. .
A word of caution on long volatility positions as current implied vol levels come into focus.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–13): Outperforming SPX in Low-Volatility Trade

By John Ley

Nifty traded in an exceptionally narrow range during a holiday-shortened week, a stark contrast to volatility in other markets.
We highlight Nifty’s relative performance against SPX across both long- and short-term time frames.
Implied volatility softened as the quiet range and muted trading activity put pressure on options pricing.

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

By At Any Rate

A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.
The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.
The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Block Inc: Is The Growth in Gross Payment Volume Here To Stay?

Block has demonstrated a noteworthy performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, highlighted by its significant growth in gross profit alongside strategic advances in both Square and Cash App functionalities.
The company, formerly Square Inc., has expanded its capabilities by evolving Square from a mere payments tool into a comprehensive commerce platform and enriching Cash App’s financial services.
The organizational restructuring is aimed at enhancing execution velocity, enabling the company to swiftly adapt and innovate within its roadmap.

GBLI: Global Indemnity Group releases 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results which showed continued improvement in underwriting efforts.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Anta Sports, Sunac, China Tower, HKEx
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 14th): Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 14th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asustek, Hon Hai, Quanta Computer
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 14th): Nanya Technology, Bora Pharmaceuticals, Jinan Acetate

HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Anta Sports, Sunac, China Tower, HKEx

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 7th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Trip.Com, Anta Sports, Sunac, China Tower, HKEx, CSOP HSTECH 2X ETF.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 14th): Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Mar 14th which has an aggregated holding worth USD483.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,135mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 14th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asustek, Hon Hai, Quanta Computer

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 14th which has an aggregated holding worth USD919.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,912mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Asustek Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 14th): Nanya Technology, Bora Pharmaceuticals, Jinan Acetate

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Nanya Technology, Bora Pharmaceuticals, Jinan Acetate Chemical, China Steel, Alchip Technologies.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (17th Mar 2025) -JPB and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (17th Mar 2025) -JPB, Recruit, Austal, BoB, Chifeng, Guarantee, Anjoy, Softcare, AvePoint

ECM Weekly (17th Mar 2025) -JPB, Recruit, Austal, BoB, Chifeng, Guarantee, Anjoy, Softcare, AvePoint

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at a few of the upcoming listings in Hong Kong.
On the placements front, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) managed to do better than its last deal while Austal Ltd (ASB AU) didn’t do too well.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Surge and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Surge
China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?
Japan Morning Connection: Solid Tech Rebound Ahead of the NVDA Developers Conference This Week
[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 11/52] Our First Read of Trumponomics
[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Surge

By Mark Chadwick

U.S. stocks surged Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 2.1% to 5,638 and the Nasdaq climbing 2.6% — their best day in 2025
Sekisui House has entered a capital and business alliance with Tsuchiya Holdings, acquiring a 6.15% stake for hundreds of millions of yen
Toyota Tsusho will acquire US-based auto recycler Radius Recycling for ¥134.4bn.

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.
Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact.
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).

Japan Morning Connection: Solid Tech Rebound Ahead of the NVDA Developers Conference This Week

By Andrew Jackson

Expect a strong follow through from Japan’s SPE despite a rare outperformance last week
Laggards such as TEL, Screen and Micronics may be targets.
Many mainstay EU defence names surged to new highs; expect heavies and JSW upside

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 11/52] Our First Read of Trumponomics

By Eric Wen

The market reflects on Trump’s economic policy to find the rationale behind. Our issue with Steven Miran’s proposal of strong -tariff/weak-dollar is whether it will bring back manufacturing to USA;
Child birth policy from the capital of Inner-Mongolia could boost consumption and cost the country only Rmb100bn a year;
BYD launches 1,000 V super charge. Xiaomi and XPEV talking about overseas expansion. LI Auto guided C1Q25 sharply lower.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

By Ying Pan

Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu’s search market share;
JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;
NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief Event-Driven: CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence
Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading
Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)
A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
Merger Arb Mondays (17 Mar) – Seven & I, Tenma, Proto, OneConnect, Vesync, Tam Jai, Insignia
Weekly Deals Digest (16 Mar) – Rio Tinto, De Grey, HKBN, ESR, Seven & I, Makino, Tenma, JXAM
SelfWealth (SWF AU): 22nd April Scheme Vote

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article.
In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion

Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.
The flows here are still striking. >25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.
A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included.

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement.
A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap.
My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Mar) – Seven & I, Tenma, Proto, OneConnect, Vesync, Tam Jai, Insignia

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU).
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Proto Corp (4298 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Mar) – Rio Tinto, De Grey, HKBN, ESR, Seven & I, Makino, Tenma, JXAM

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) to list on 19 March.
Event-Driven developments: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP).

SelfWealth (SWF AU): 22nd April Scheme Vote

On the 27th Feb 2025, online trading player SelfWealth Ltd (SWF AU entered into Scheme with Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava.
Svava tabled a A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme, trumping Bell Financial (BFG AU)‘s A$0.25/share earlier bid. Svava also has a 18.83% stake.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd April. Expected implementation on the 7th May. The IE (Grant Thorton) says fair & reasonable.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Increasing Size and Diversity and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Increasing Size and Diversity
China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) – 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab’s Headwinds
CDL (CIT SP): Corporate Governance Casualty. Shareholder Pain Runs Deeper than Promoter Family Feud
Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback
Salesforce.Com Inc – Salesforce’s Growth Is Slowing—Can Agentforce Turn Things Around?
Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener
Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer
Home Depot’s Surprise Sales Rebound—But Is It Enough to Overcome a Tough 2025?
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook
The TJX Companies: How Consumer Demographic Diversification Is Playing A Critical Role In Its Strategy!

CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Increasing Size and Diversity

By Angus Mackintosh

A meeting with CP ALL (CPALL TB) management revealed some interesting new initiatives to drive growth as the company remains upbeat about its store expansion for 2025.
The company is moving towards opening larger-sized stores, with more RTE and RTD offerings and some parking and food vendors outside, which will help diversify merchandise offerings..
It is unclear what direction Seven & I’s restructuring will take, but looking through that, the company is trading on historically attractive valuations.

China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) – 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab’s Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The NHSA has issued clear instructions for VBP in 2025, including two batches of national VBP of drugs and one batch of medical consumables VBP. TCM will also be included.
The sales growth of GLP-1s has entered a turning point, it will be far from the previously high expectations. The actual market size of GLP-1s could be only US$100 billion.
Rapid sales growth of Efgartigimod is the key factor for Zai Lab to narrow the losses.But whether it can be breakeven relies on the decline of cost/expenses, not revenue growth.

CDL (CIT SP): Corporate Governance Casualty. Shareholder Pain Runs Deeper than Promoter Family Feud

By Devi Subhakesan

City Developments (CIT SP) aka CDL’s boardroom battle, framed as a family feud, grabbed media attention and overshadowed more serious, long-ignored corporate governance issues.
Despite prolonged underperformance and founder-family control controversies, CDL’s board have failed to enact decisive reforms to restore shareholder value.
The CDL saga exposes systemic risks in family-run, publicly listed firms where often corporate governance gets compromised and minority shareholder interests are undermined.

Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

By Michael Causton

Seven & I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.
This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.
But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.

Salesforce.Com Inc – Salesforce’s Growth Is Slowing—Can Agentforce Turn Things Around?

Salesforce delivered a strong financial performance for fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant progress in its AI and Data Cloud initiatives.
The company reported annual revenue of $37.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the prior year, with fourth-quarter revenue reaching $10 billion—its first-ever $10 billion quarter.
Subscription and support revenue grew by 10% in constant currency, indicating continued demand for its enterprise software solutions.

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener

By Rahul Jain

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.
Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.
Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.

Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer

By Mark Chadwick

Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.
Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.
De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.

Home Depot’s Surprise Sales Rebound—But Is It Enough to Overcome a Tough 2025?

Home Depot’s latest financial results presented a mixed picture, with some encouraging signs of recovery despite a cautious outlook for the coming year.
Total sales for fiscal 2024 rose 4.5% to $159.5 billion, though comparable sales for the year declined by 1.8%.
However, fourth-quarter same-store sales showed improvement, rising 0.8%—breaking an eight-quarter streak of declines and exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% drop.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.

The TJX Companies: How Consumer Demographic Diversification Is Playing A Critical Role In Its Strategy!

The TJX Companies, Inc. reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding expectations in multiple areas.
With net sales of $16.4 billion, which marks a 5% increase over last year’s adjusted figures, the company demonstrated consistent strength across all divisions.
The driving factor was a 5% increase in consolidated comparable store sales, which stemmed from increased customer transactions.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief Macro: Trump Administration Begins Weaning US Economy Off Addiction to Fiscal Profligacy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Trump Administration Begins Weaning US Economy Off Addiction to Fiscal Profligacy
What Are The Odds of a Trump Recession in 2025?
Why the Market Won’t Crash From Here
LLM Quant Revolution: From ChatGPT to Wall Street | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #003

Trump Administration Begins Weaning US Economy Off Addiction to Fiscal Profligacy

By Said Desaque

The mainstream media have focused on the short-term inflationary impact of tariffs, but the longer-term implications are deflationary. Prevailing conditions are crucial in determining the size of the inflationary impact.
The US economy and financial markets became addicted to prolonged fiscal and monetary policy profligacy after the COVID-19 pandemic. Government-related employment adjustment has just commenced under the Trump administration.
Fiscal policy will be tightened in 2026 due to expiring tax provisions passed in 2017. President Trump needs sizeable tariff revenues if their extension is not to jeopardise government finances.

What Are The Odds of a Trump Recession in 2025?

By Cam Hui

The market’s risk appetite was recently dented by a heightened fears that Trump is engineering a recession.
Our analysis of current economic conditions shows low recession risk and our base case calls for a growth scare.
We assess recession odds at one in three and we will continue to monitor the evolution of changes in business confidence and financial conditions to measure future slowdown risk.

Why the Market Won’t Crash From Here

By Cam Hui

We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth.
In the short run, however, sentiment has become overly bearish and the price momentum unwind that sparked the latest downdraft seems to be abating.
Our base case calls for a short-term relief rally, followed by a choppy decline into H2 2025.

LLM Quant Revolution: From ChatGPT to Wall Street | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #003

By William Mann

Research and agentic workflows in finance are evolving with the use of AI and large language models like ChatGPT.
LLMs can process information quickly, analyze data, and assist in generating investment ideas, but human oversight is crucial.
Using a multimodal approach with different LLMs specialized for specific tasks can enhance decision-making in investing and democratize access to sophisticated analysis tools.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Mar 17

Most Read: Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group, Hoa Phat Group Jsc, Pilbara Minerals, Broadcom , CK Hutchison Holdings, Tsuruha Holdings, Spartan Resources /Australi, HKBN Ltd, Technology One and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Gunma Bank (8334) And DHFG (7327) In Integration Talks – ‘Guess The Ratio’ Is ‘Efficiency Vs Value’
MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn
CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence
Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade
Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion

Gunma Bank (8334) And DHFG (7327) In Integration Talks – ‘Guess The Ratio’ Is ‘Efficiency Vs Value’

Nikkei Business reported Friday 14 March that Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP) (“DHFG”) were in talks to integrate to create a Super-Regional Bank
Gunma and Daishi-Hokuetsu are part of the same multiple-regional bank alliances, including the Gunma-Daishi Hokuetsu Alliance since 2021, in order to collaborate regionally, build scale, and lower service provision cost.
As Gunma and Daishi Hokuetsu serve adjacent jurisdictions, and they are already exploring sharing branches, this makes sense. The World with Interest (rates above zero) may cause more integration talk.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank (NAB VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.1% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$26m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.
Vietnam is on the watchlist of a global index provider for possible reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market and that could lead to inflows to the stocks.

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium (SLI US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close of trading on 21 March.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.
The largest inflows will be in Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Albemarle (ALB US) while there will be outflows from MP Materials (MP US) and Lynas Corp (LYC AU).

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article.
In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Technology One (TNE AU) will be added to the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) at the close on 21 March.
Surprisingly, there are no deletions from the index. The two inclusions, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.6% leading to a round-trip trade of A$288m.
There will be huge buying of A$1.2bn in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) at the same time from S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and related index trackers.

Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion

Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief Australia: Spartan Resources /Australi, Technology One, Rio Tinto Ltd, SelfWealth Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade
Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion
Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)
Weekly Deals Digest (16 Mar) – Rio Tinto, De Grey, HKBN, ESR, Seven & I, Makino, Tenma, JXAM
SelfWealth (SWF AU): 22nd April Scheme Vote

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Technology One (TNE AU) will be added to the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) at the close on 21 March.
Surprisingly, there are no deletions from the index. The two inclusions, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.6% leading to a round-trip trade of A$288m.
There will be huge buying of A$1.2bn in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) at the same time from S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and related index trackers.

Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion

Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement.
A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap.
My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Mar) – Rio Tinto, De Grey, HKBN, ESR, Seven & I, Makino, Tenma, JXAM

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) to list on 19 March.
Event-Driven developments: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP).

SelfWealth (SWF AU): 22nd April Scheme Vote