Daily Briefs

According to Reuters, CATL plans to launch its Hong Kong listing process including book building during the week of 12 May.
We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 423.6 billion RMB (up 17% YoY) and net profit of 55.6 billion RMB (up 13.1% YoY) in 2025.
Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap. We believe CATL’s shares are undervalued.

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

By Brian Freitas

Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).
There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.
NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) will have passives buying, while NIO (9866 HK) switches to a sell.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by >HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn. The next two weeks flat.
Two weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. This past week saw only 3 days of SOUTHBOUND trading and saw net selling of big internet names.
This week threatens to be quiet as well, as tariff news moves away from China for a little while, and towards foreign auto exporters, Canada, Mexico, and “trade frameworks.”

CSI 300 Index: Tactical Outlook Following the Labor Day Holiday

By Nico Rosti

Following an extended holiday beginning May 1st, the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) resumes trading on May 6th.
The WEEKLY close before the holiday—during a shortened trading week—was modestly negative. However, the index would need to decline to 3697 or lower to trigger a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Since the index has already closed 1 week down, our time model suggests there is a good chance (62%) it could go up this week.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

A quiet week as most indices – HK and mainland – saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week.
For a couple of months I’ve thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial’s technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years.
We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.

In Response to Tariff & “De Minimis” Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into…Amazon?

By Daniel Hellberg

Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
Temu won’t sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, & will rely on local fulfillment
The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com

Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of “card revenue+derivative products”.
Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”
Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government’s supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel
In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in meaningfully above estimates at 177 k in April (138 k e / 185 k revised p), albeit the March numbers were revised downwards to 185 k (from 228 k). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The average hourly earnings rose 3.8% y-o-y (3.9% e / 3.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that US officials have “repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues”, and added that China is currently evaluating the situation.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can’t Shake The Tariff Overhang

By Sameer Taneja

Share prices are gradually stabilizing, influenced by news reports suggesting that Trump may eventually reduce tariffs on China (although trust overhang with Trump statements remains an issue).
Besides Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK), most companies have halted capital allocation decisions like buybacks till more clarity emerges.
Stella International (1836 HK) has the highest US revenue exposure at 47%, followed by Crystal International (2232 HK) at 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK) at 58%.

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May 06

Daily Brief Indonesia: Vale Indonesia Tbk and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Vale Indonesia: Still Battling Nickel Price Decline in Q1/25

Vale Indonesia: Still Battling Nickel Price Decline in Q1/25

By Graeme Cunningham

Vale Indonesia’s Q1/25 net profit beat estimates only on non-core items, with a reversal to a gain from Q1/24 on the fair value recognition of a derivative asset
Core earnings declined yoy on an unexpected maintenance shutdown-driven decline in volume and nickel price drop which offset a decline in costs
Trading at a P/B of 0.5x and with peers also well below 1.0x, much of the industry’s current distress has been priced in, but immediate catalysts are few

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May 06

Daily Brief Japan: Simplex Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Simplex Holdings (4373 JP) – Disciplined Delivery and Expecting Sales Growth Acceleration

Simplex Holdings (4373 JP) – Disciplined Delivery and Expecting Sales Growth Acceleration

By Astris Advisory Japan

Results in line, demonstrating resilience – FY3/25 results were in line with guidance, as Simplex responded effectively in driving a notable earnings recovery in H2 FY3/25.
Orders and backlog growth were robust, denoting high earnings visibility.
Management provided clarity over the insurance business, which will continue as part of Financial Retail, and FY3/26 guidance points to sustained sales and earnings growth YoY in the high teens.

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May 06

Daily Brief Industrials: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Hanwha Ocean , Eva Airways, Shilchar Technologies, Titan International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing
Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Some Changes to Expectation; Three Weeks to Base Date
A Pair Trade of Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Ocean
Shilchar Technologies Q4FY25 : Full Capacity Utilization Achieved Ahead of Schedule.
TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.
TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.

CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing

According to Reuters, CATL plans to launch its Hong Kong listing process including book building during the week of 12 May.
We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 423.6 billion RMB (up 17% YoY) and net profit of 55.6 billion RMB (up 13.1% YoY) in 2025.
Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap. We believe CATL’s shares are undervalued.

Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread

By Sanghyun Park

Local traders are targeting the spread between day and NXT’s after-hours, a classic arb play similar to what Japanese instos used when ATS first launched, now emerging in Korea.
The gap persists because institutional flow on NXT is still minimal, with recent data showing instos accounting for just 1-2% of total turnover.
NXT’s night session is seeing heavy retail flow, providing instos with the liquidity to trade. This creates a rare opportunity to capitalize on early inefficiencies before others catch on.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Some Changes to Expectation; Three Weeks to Base Date

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100.

A Pair Trade of Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Ocean

In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) (go long) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) (go short).
Hanwha Ocean faces bigger overhang risk of KDB continuing to sell additional shares of the company as compared to Hanwha Aerospace’s rights offering shares dilution risk.
Hanwha Aerospace/Hanwha Ocean price ratio (5 year period) is near the 2 standard deviation (STD) mark which could suggest a reversion to the mean.

Shilchar Technologies Q4FY25 : Full Capacity Utilization Achieved Ahead of Schedule.

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Shilchar achieved full capacity utilization ahead of FY26 guidance, delivering record quarterly and annual profitability.
The early ramp-up boosts earnings visibility, positioning Shilchar to benefit from strong domestic and export transformer demand.
Near-Term growth outlook strengthens with a INR 750–800 crore revenue guidance for FY26, while medium-term capex plans are under evaluation.

TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.

Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.

Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

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May 06

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Gold Road Resources, Nan Ya Plastics, Gravita India, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Base Oil, Rio Tinto PLC, ArcelorMittal, Crude Oil, Gold and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.5bn One-Way; Several High-Impact Flow Names
Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer
Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations
Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report
ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/18] WTI Tumbles on OPEC Supply Boost and Economic Growth Fears
Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR’s effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.5bn One-Way; Several High-Impact Flow Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect five changes for the TDIV index and there could be index flows of US$2.5bn one-way due to capping.

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

By Arun George

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges.
The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.

Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations

By Rahul Jain

Gravita reported steady FY25 results with ~10% EBITDA margins, strong cash generation, and maintained a net cash position despite ongoing capex.
Business mix is evolving with increasing aluminium recycling, higher Africa contribution, and new verticals like lithium-ion, aiming to double capacity by FY27.
Valuations appear elevated but are supported by strong ROIC, clear growth visibility, and alignment with global ESG trends.

Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff

By Vinod Nedumudy

February marks 18.7% NR yield growth MoM, 21.3% growth YoY
Exports of NR too go up by an impressive 23.7% MoM
Malaysian gloves set to upend China’s competition in US market

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US tariffs.
Demand already slowed amid uncertainty about impact of tariffs.
Slowdown in demand highlights widespread repercussion of tariffs, even for products that are not directly impacted.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth

By Rahul Jain

Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.
Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.
Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/18] WTI Tumbles on OPEC Supply Boost and Economic Growth Fears

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures fell 7.5% for the week ending 02/May, weighed by OPEC supply hike and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations.
The U.S. rig count fell by three to 584. The oil rig count fell by four to 479, while gas rigs grew by two to 101.
WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.84 on 02/May from 0.82 on 25/Apr. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 8.9%.

Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

By The Commodity Report

The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.
Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.
Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.

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May 06

Daily Brief Industrials: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Hanwha Ocean , Eva Airways, Shilchar Technologies, Titan International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing
Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Some Changes to Expectation; Three Weeks to Base Date
A Pair Trade of Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Ocean
Shilchar Technologies Q4FY25 : Full Capacity Utilization Achieved Ahead of Schedule.
TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.
TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.

CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing

According to Reuters, CATL plans to launch its Hong Kong listing process including book building during the week of 12 May.
We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 423.6 billion RMB (up 17% YoY) and net profit of 55.6 billion RMB (up 13.1% YoY) in 2025.
Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap. We believe CATL’s shares are undervalued.

Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread

By Sanghyun Park

Local traders are targeting the spread between day and NXT’s after-hours, a classic arb play similar to what Japanese instos used when ATS first launched, now emerging in Korea.
The gap persists because institutional flow on NXT is still minimal, with recent data showing instos accounting for just 1-2% of total turnover.
NXT’s night session is seeing heavy retail flow, providing instos with the liquidity to trade. This creates a rare opportunity to capitalize on early inefficiencies before others catch on.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Some Changes to Expectation; Three Weeks to Base Date

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100.

A Pair Trade of Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Ocean

In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) (go long) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) (go short).
Hanwha Ocean faces bigger overhang risk of KDB continuing to sell additional shares of the company as compared to Hanwha Aerospace’s rights offering shares dilution risk.
Hanwha Aerospace/Hanwha Ocean price ratio (5 year period) is near the 2 standard deviation (STD) mark which could suggest a reversion to the mean.

Shilchar Technologies Q4FY25 : Full Capacity Utilization Achieved Ahead of Schedule.

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Shilchar achieved full capacity utilization ahead of FY26 guidance, delivering record quarterly and annual profitability.
The early ramp-up boosts earnings visibility, positioning Shilchar to benefit from strong domestic and export transformer demand.
Near-Term growth outlook strengthens with a INR 750–800 crore revenue guidance for FY26, while medium-term capex plans are under evaluation.

TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.

Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.

Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

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May 06

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NetEase , Tencent, MongoDB , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, SmartPay Holdings, Etoro Group, Smarttech247 Group, Simplex Holdings, Nemetschek SE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week
MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels
Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) Enters Exclusivity With Shift4 (?) As Tyro Walks
EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO
Smarttech247 Group PLC – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 28/04/2025
Simplex Holdings (4373 JP) – Disciplined Delivery and Expecting Sales Growth Acceleration
Nemetschek (NEM GR): Strengthening the AI Roadmap with Google Cloud

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

By Brian Freitas

Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).
There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.
NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) will have passives buying, while NIO (9866 HK) switches to a sell.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by >HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn. The next two weeks flat.
Two weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. This past week saw only 3 days of SOUTHBOUND trading and saw net selling of big internet names.
This week threatens to be quiet as well, as tariff news moves away from China for a little while, and towards foreign auto exporters, Canada, Mexico, and “trade frameworks.”

MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

MongoDB (MDB US) is forecasted to be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to an index weighting of lower than 0.1% on the last day of March and April.
Shopify (SHOP US) is the forecasted replacement. The company became eligible following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and eBay Inc (EBAY US) are the main addition candidates for the acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by mid-2025 and the December 2025 review.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread
CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) Enters Exclusivity With Shift4 (?) As Tyro Walks

By David Blennerhassett

On the 17th March, eftpos terminal provider Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) announced the receipt of two NBIOs
One from Tyro (TYR AU) (@ NZ$1.00/share) and one from a third party (believed to be Shift4 (FOUR US)). Both parties were granted a limited period of commercial due diligence.
After Shift4 (if indeed them) bumped terms to NZ$1.20/share/A$1.12/share, it was granted exclusivity on the 2nd May. Tyro has now walked.

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO

By IPO Boutique

The company set terms with a F-1/A putting 10 million shares for sale at a range of $46-$50 which would value the company as high as $4.05b.
BlackRock and funds managed by BlackRock placed a 20-percent cornerstone investment order and is on the cover of the prospectus.
The blueprint to getting an IPO out the door during this time is to shrink the size of the transaction, bring in a cornerstone investor and provide an attractive valuation.

Smarttech247 Group PLC – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 28/04/2025

By Hybridan

Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps 28th April 2025 @HybridanLLP * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement ****Alphabetically arranged Dish of the day Admissions: Last Friday (25th April), The Smarter Web Company (AQSE:SWC), announced its first day of dealings on the on the Aquis Stock Exchange.
The Smarter Web Company is a UK-based web design agency, specialising in creating bespoke, mobile-friendly websites and offers a range of online marketing strategies to help businesses enhance their online presence.
Services include various web design packages, logo design, Search Engine Optimisation, animation and custom development.

Simplex Holdings (4373 JP) – Disciplined Delivery and Expecting Sales Growth Acceleration

By Astris Advisory Japan

Results in line, demonstrating resilience – FY3/25 results were in line with guidance, as Simplex responded effectively in driving a notable earnings recovery in H2 FY3/25.
Orders and backlog growth were robust, denoting high earnings visibility.
Management provided clarity over the insurance business, which will continue as part of Financial Retail, and FY3/26 guidance points to sustained sales and earnings growth YoY in the high teens.

Nemetschek (NEM GR): Strengthening the AI Roadmap with Google Cloud

By Gregory Ramirez

Nemetschek has partnered with Google Cloud to embed AI into its AEC/O and media software, expand global market access through digital marketplaces, and promote sustainability in design and construction workflows.
For Q1 2025, it reported better-than-expected revenue growth, though EBITDA was temporarily impacted by the insolvency of a payment service provider; underlying margins remain strong, and full-year guidance was reaffirmed.
Nemetschek remains one of Europe’s fastest-growing software firms, driven by a successful transition to subscriptions, with strong visibility through 2027–2028.

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May 06

Daily Brief Consumer: Guangzhou Automobile Group, PDD Holdings, Ather Energy, Mahindra & Mahindra, MGM China Holdings, Kayou, JNBY Design Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
In Response to Tariff & “De Minimis” Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into…Amazon?
Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?
Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind
HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can’t Shake The Tariff Overhang
Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

A quiet week as most indices – HK and mainland – saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week.
For a couple of months I’ve thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.

In Response to Tariff & “De Minimis” Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into…Amazon?

By Daniel Hellberg

Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
Temu won’t sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, & will rely on local fulfillment
The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com

Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?

By Devi Subhakesan

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) lists on Indian stock exchanges today with expectations of a subdued debut.
Following its IPO, and early VC investors gradually reducing their stakes, the ownership and influence dynamics may begin to tilt more toward Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) that now owns 30%.
Is this shift a threat to Ather’s innovation-driven DNA, or should investors support a stronger collaboration with Hero Motocorp to unlock accelerated growth and take on competition from ICE incumbents?

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Strong Core Performance:Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) delivered robust growth in Auto &Farm segments in Q4FY25,with SUV volumes up 20% &tractor volumes up 12%,alongside market share gains in both segments.
Strategic Expansion & Capital Allocation: The company outlined a clear roadmap for scaling EV and ICE capacities to 85K/month by FY27.
Valuation Upside from Growth Platforms:With scalable and emerging “growth gems” across real estate, hospitality,renewables, and EVs, M&M’s Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation pegs fair value at INR 3,437/share, including the EV business.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel
In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in meaningfully above estimates at 177 k in April (138 k e / 185 k revised p), albeit the March numbers were revised downwards to 185 k (from 228 k). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The average hourly earnings rose 3.8% y-o-y (3.9% e / 3.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that US officials have “repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues”, and added that China is currently evaluating the situation.

Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of “card revenue+derivative products”.
Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”
Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government’s supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can’t Shake The Tariff Overhang

By Sameer Taneja

Share prices are gradually stabilizing, influenced by news reports suggesting that Trump may eventually reduce tariffs on China (although trust overhang with Trump statements remains an issue).
Besides Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK), most companies have halted capital allocation decisions like buybacks till more clarity emerges.
Stella International (1836 HK) has the highest US revenue exposure at 47%, followed by Crystal International (2232 HK) at 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK) at 58%.

Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge

By Sumeet Singh

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO.
Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

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May 06

Daily Brief Financials: Shin Kong Financial Holding, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Bright Smart Securities And, Health In Tech, American Integrity Insurance Group, Aspen Insurance Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher
CSI 300 Index: Tactical Outlook Following the Labor Day Holiday
Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value
HIT: Newly Formed Advisory Board and Advisor With Extensive Public Affairs Experience Appear Timely
HIT: Strong 1Q25 Revenue Growth as HIT Expands its Offerings & Broadens its Target Market
American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO

ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher

The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen.
There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.
Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.

CSI 300 Index: Tactical Outlook Following the Labor Day Holiday

By Nico Rosti

Following an extended holiday beginning May 1st, the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) resumes trading on May 6th.
The WEEKLY close before the holiday—during a shortened trading week—was modestly negative. However, the index would need to decline to 3697 or lower to trigger a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Since the index has already closed 1 week down, our time model suggests there is a good chance (62%) it could go up this week.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial’s technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years.
We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.

HIT: Newly Formed Advisory Board and Advisor With Extensive Public Affairs Experience Appear Timely

As HIT continues to expand services and enhance its platform, the company aims to broaden its target market, as it believes that organizations of all sizes can benefit from its AI-driven technology platform, which is designed to streamline and facilitate the process of researching and obtaining healthcare insurance.
HIT began development of a large-group third-party AI-powered underwriting solutions for mid-sized and larger businesses and, in 1Q25, delivered solutions to large employers, including one that employs 1k+ people.

HIT: Strong 1Q25 Revenue Growth as HIT Expands its Offerings & Broadens its Target Market