Daily Briefs

Ligand Pharmaceuticals holds a portfolio of revenue, royalty & milestone generating assets that have been vetted by its internal investment team.
Ligand considers individual biopharmaceutical products, platforms, companies & income streams in its opportunity set.
It targets late-stage and commercial income-producing assets when making investments.

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Consistent 2024 Result; Stable Occupancy Amid Capacity Expansion

By Tina Banerjee

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) delivered consistent performance with 2024 revenue rising 16% YoY, while EBITDA growing at a faster pace of 17% YoY.
Singapore, Turkiye & Europe, India, Malaysia show strength with favorable patient mix, higher occupancy, and higher revenue per in-patient.
IHH added 1004 beds in 2024 and is well on track to add ~4,000 beds (+33% capacity) by 2028 through both organic and inorganic expansions.

Medtronic Plc.: Hugo Robotic Surgical Platform Rollout to Support A Trajectory Of Sustainable Growth!

Medtronic’s third-quarter results of fiscal year 2025 present a mixed yet promising picture of the company’s performance and strategic initiatives.
The company has reported mid-single-digit organic revenue growth for the ninth consecutive quarter, highlighting consistent market performance.
Significant areas of growth include the Cardiac Ablation Solutions, which reported a 22% increase, as well as strong double-digit growth in leadless pacing, Neuromodulation, and Diabetes segments.

AZTR: Netherton Topline By Year-End

Azitra is developing genetically engineered bacteria for therapeutic use in dermatology.
The company possesses a microbial library of 1,500 unique bacterial strains that are candidates for a variety of indications.
Azitra’s lead candidate is ATR-12 for the rare disease Netherton Syndrome (NS).

PegBio 派格生物 IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Good

PegBio is looking at raising up to USD 100m to list in Hong Kong.
We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and a brief valuation.
We look at the difference between previous filing and current PHIP filing. We see massive delays which don’t position the company well for the listing.

Penumbra Inc.: Will Its Market Penetration & Access Initiatives Help Capture The Thrombectomy Market?

Penumbra’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings reveal a company that continues to prioritize its thrombectomy business, showcasing impressive growth figures in the U.S. market while dealing with challenges in international operations.
The company’s non-GAAP revenue for Q4 2024 was $321.3 million, reflecting a 12.9% year-over-year increase on an adjusted basis, excluding the Italian payback adjustment.
When looking at the full year, Penumbra’s revenue reached over $1.2 billion, signifying a 13.4% increase compared to 2023.

SBC: Recent Steps Implemented to Support Growth

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

In SBC’s home market, Japan, demand for aesthetic medical treatments has grown in recent years, partially reflecting the impact of social media.
The rising acceptance of and popularity of aesthetic medicine is partially attributable to growing demand for dermatological treatments.
Younger and middle age people appear to be more interested in elective cosmetic procedures and SBC revenue growth is highly correlated to franchisee expansion and as the company broadens its service offerings.

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (3902 JP): Research Update

Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY24 (Dec year-end) earnings results with full-year gross profit [GP] of ¥4,331mil (-13.9% YoY), an operating profit [OP] of ¥3mil (-99.8% YoY) on sales of ¥5,906mil (-8.0% YoY).
Given the Q3 performance, the firm revised down its full-year forecasts on 11 November, however, the full-year results fell short of the revised guidance of OP of ¥510mil on sales of ¥6,600mil.
MTP’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

EDSA: Raises 15 Million to Advance EB06

On February 14, 2024, Edesa Biotech, Inc. (EDSA) announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 that ended December 31, 2024 and provided a business update.
The company recently announced it raised $15 million in a private placement with healthcare-focused institutional investors.
The funds will be utilized to advance its anti-CXCL10 monoclonal antibody, EB06, for the treatment of vitiligo.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Shenzhen International, Fluor Corp, Franklin Electric Co, HIRANO TECSEED Co (Kinzoku), DBS, Valmont Industries, Flowserve Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Expectations For “The Big April Basket” 2025
Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Good News from Positive Profit Alert
Fluor Corporation: Why Energy Transition & Infrastructure Spending Are Supercharging Growth!
Franklin Electric: Will Its Focus on Energy Systems Pay Off?
Hirano Tecseed Co., Ltd. (6245 JP): Research Update
Buybacks Surge as Earnings Season Nears End
Valmont Industries: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!
Flowserve Corporation: Mogas Acquisition & Integration to Strengthen Competitive Position & Boost Long-Term Growth Objectives!

TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Expectations For “The Big April Basket” 2025

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In the TOPIX Index, some “low liquidity” names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2025 and their flow implications.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Good News from Positive Profit Alert

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen International (152 HK)‘s FY24 net profit will range at HK$2.8-3.1bn (53-63% growth YoY), boosted by a HK$2.3bn gain from South China Logistics Park Transformation.
Extrapolating this gain to the whole land plot will generate a profit of HK$11.4bn, or 66% of the current market capitalisation. The stock is significantly undervalued at 0.49x P/B.
At an assumed 50% payout ratio, SZI’s yield is at 9%. Moreover, with stable profit expected for FY25 and FY26, the yield will be maintained for the next two years.

Fluor Corporation: Why Energy Transition & Infrastructure Spending Are Supercharging Growth!

Fluor Corporation’s recent earnings announcement reflects a mix of positive financial results and ongoing strategic restructuring.
The company reported a revenue of $16.3 billion for the year, marking a 5.4% increase from 2023, alongside a net income of $2.1 billion, largely influenced by the deconsolidation of its investment in NuScale Power and subsequent administrative accounting adjustments.
This shows Fluor’s capacity to stabilize its financial footing while adapting to dynamic market conditions.

Franklin Electric: Will Its Focus on Energy Systems Pay Off?

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Franklin Electric delivered a mixed performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 against a backdrop of challenging macroeconomic conditions.
The company reported a modest year-over-year increase of 3% in consolidated sales for the fourth quarter, driven primarily by growth in the Distribution and newly renamed Energy Systems segments, while sales in the Water Systems segment were flat.
Despite achieving higher volumes across segments, the company faced diverse challenges that impacted its overall performance.

Hirano Tecseed Co., Ltd. (6245 JP): Research Update

HT has maintained its FY24 guidance of OP of ¥2,900mil (-10.4% YoY) on sales of ¥44,000mil (-6.3% YoY).
Management commits to pay out the higher of a DOE of 3.5% or a dividend pay-out ratio of 60% during the current medium-term plan (FY24~FY27).
HT has not changed the view on the medium to long-term growth potential in the EV market, however, for the time being, it remains cautious.

Buybacks Surge as Earnings Season Nears End

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow of S$265 million from Feb 21-27, 2025.
DBS Group Holdings led share buybacks with 350,000 shares at S$46.73 each; total buybacks amounted to S$31,062,634.
Wilmar International’s FY24 core net profit declined 26% to US$1.16 billion, with sales volume growth in most divisions.

Valmont Industries: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

Valmont Industries, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, citing a strong performance that aligned with expectations despite facing headwinds.
The company noted significant achievements in operational and commercial areas, which aided in delivering solid outcomes.
Key highlights included a focus on infrastructure and agricultural growth, as well as enhancements in operational flexibility and customer-driven innovation.

Flowserve Corporation: Mogas Acquisition & Integration to Strengthen Competitive Position & Boost Long-Term Growth Objectives!

Flowserve Corporation presented its fourth-quarter and year-end 2024 financial update, highlighting significant improvements and achievements throughout the year.
The company reported robust growth with bookings reaching nearly $1.2 billion for the quarter, showing strong growth momentum in both original equipment and aftermarket segments.
Their backlog closed near a record $2.8 billion, supported by strong cash flow generation of $197 million for the quarter, attributed to effective working capital management.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, Toyota Motor, JD.com , PointsBet Holdings , Mixue Group, Chery Automobile, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Genuine Parts Co, Mahindra & Mahindra and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well
BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Continuing to Power Up
Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising
JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move
PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)
MIXUE Group (2097 HK): What to Do Now?
Chery Automobile IPO Preview
Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
Genuine Parts Company: A Closer Look at Its Earnings Cadence & Market Conditions!
Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Tractor Firms – February 2025; Strong Show Continues

BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.2bn via selling 4% additional shares.
The company has undertaken a few deals before and they have ended up performing well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Continuing to Power Up

By Brian Freitas

Overnight, BYD (1211 HK) has announced a placement of 118m shares at a price range of HK$333-345/share that could raise up to HK$40.7bn (US$5.2bn).
The Pink Sheets listing for BYD (BYDDY.PK) closed at US$87.1/share and traded US$155m for the day. That close implies an open of HK$338.7/share for BYD, middle of the placement range.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers later this week while buying from Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index trackers will come in April.

Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising

Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a new Shareholder Benefit Program (株主優待 or kabunushiyutai). Often these programs are designed to give small unknown companies a way to build shareholder awareness/loyalty.
Toyota, needless to say, is not a small, unknown company building awareness. So this is a bribe or inducement to own shares or get people to use higher value product.
This is not a great look, and not great for shareholders. It smells of Toyota trying to buy votes as crossholders sell. But below we look at the math.

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

By Gaudenz Schneider

JD.com (9618 HK) upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.
Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.
Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

On 26 February, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Mixi Inc (2121 JP) at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).
Subsequently, BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU) disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.
BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK): What to Do Now?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group (2097 HK) has a successful IPO in Hong Kong, with share price surged 43.2%. We will trim from here and will not buy at the current level.
Our forecasts call for a decent 20.8% and 17.6% earnings growth for FY25 and FY26, putting it on RICH PERs of 19.1x for FY25 and 16.3x for FY26.
The Chinese tea sector has average PERs of 12.4x and 10.5x, suggesting MIXUE’s leadership is well reflected in the over 50% premium, and the safety margin has significantly narrowed.

Chery Automobile IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Chery Automobile is getting ready to complete an IPO in Hong Kong in the coming months. The company could raise up to US$1 billion in this IPO.
Chery Auto is the second largest automaker in China and the 11th largest auto company globally. The valuation of Chery Auto could be more than 100 billion yuan (US$14 billion).
Chery Auto has one of the best records among all the major auto companies globally in the past three years in terms of sales and net profit growth.

Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Melco Resorts and Entertainment’s Q4/24 results remained soft, owing to a decline in the EBITDA margin, and despite GGR outperforming that of peers.
In addition, the company’s debt reduction and deleveraging continued to lag peers, as FCF generation was constrained by the soft earnings, ongoing share repurchases, as well as capex requirements (including for the development project in Sri Lanka).

Genuine Parts Company: A Closer Look at Its Earnings Cadence & Market Conditions!

Genuine Parts Company reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ending 2024, revealing a mixed set of results amidst challenging market conditions.
The company’s total sales for 2024 were $23.5 billion, representing a growth of 1.7% compared to the previous year.
This growth was bolstered by strategic acquisitions which contributed 260 basis points but was offset by weaker market conditions, particularly in the industrial segment.

Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Tractor Firms – February 2025; Strong Show Continues

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Tractor volume continued to be strong in Feb’25.Favorable reservoir level,strong sowing for the Rabi season and government support are expected to drive good demand for tractors in the medium term.
We summarize the sales volume published by listed players Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) and Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) in February 2025.
Positive management commentary augurs well for uptick in tractor OEM stocks and related auto ancillary companies like GNA Axles Ltd (GNA IN) in medium term.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Baidu, Gemvax & Kael, Plover Bay Technologies, Oneconnect Financial Technology, Arista Networks, WeDoctor Holdings, Jabil Circuit, Shift4 Payments, Cadence Design Sys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Baidu Inc.: When Will Its Efforts Towards Generative AI
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Moves Lead to Changes in Forecast
Plover Bay Technologies (1523.HK) – A Milestone Year with Strong Growth and Expanding Opportunities
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO
Arista Networks: Can its Cloud Titan Engagement & Expansion Bolster Growth In Foreseeable Future?
Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings – The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Mar-2025): HP cuts 2k jobs, offshores China manufacturing for NA by 4Q25
Shift4 Payments: Why Its Unified Commerce Platform Expansion Is Driving Our Bullishness!
Cadence Design Systems: AI-Powered EDA Tools Are Revolutionizing Chip Design!

Baidu Inc.: When Will Its Efforts Towards Generative AI

Baidu’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results reveal a company navigating both challenges and opportunities, driven by its ongoing transformation into an AI-centric entity.
The reported total revenues for the fourth quarter amounted to RMB 34.1 billion, a 2% decrease year-over-year, while full-year revenues were down by 1%, at RMB 133.1 billion.
Despite these slight declines, Baidu Core’s revenue performance was stable, increasing by 1% for both the fourth quarter and full year.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Moves Lead to Changes in Forecast

By Brian Freitas

With the averaging period for the April rebalance commencing today, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.65-1x ADV to buy in the adds and between 0.5-1.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.
The big rally has taken Gemvax & Kael into inclusion zone while underperformance leads to ISC Co and Techwing dropping out of inclusion zone.

Plover Bay Technologies (1523.HK) – A Milestone Year with Strong Growth and Expanding Opportunities

By Pyramids and Pagodas

Plover Bay Technologies (1523.HK , “Plover Bay”) with a market cap of approximately USD 739 million, experienced another stellar year with its FY24A annual results, showcasing a notable 24% revenue increase, exceeding the USD 100 million threshold (also known as the “valley of death ”) to reach USD 117 million, while also realizing a 36% YoY growth in net profit, amounting to USD 38 million.
This success is complemented by strategic partnerships, and ongoing innovation.
With deepening collaborations, an expanding product line-up, and an emphasis on recurring revenues, Plover Bay is well-positioned for sustained growth in 2025 and beyond.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preliminary non-binding privatisation offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 (US$7.98 per ADS), a 72.33% premium to the undisturbed price.
Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect around net cash and is at a material discount to historical trading ranges.
If a binding proposal materialises, the offer price will not be increased. A high minority participation rate could be an issue for the vote.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

Dual-Listed OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK/OCFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/ digital insurance play, has announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect’s controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
Ping An is offering, by way of a Scheme, HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price is final.
What now? Back in OneConnect’s boards’ court whether to engage or not. Which they should. No competing Offer will emerge.

Arista Networks: Can its Cloud Titan Engagement & Expansion Bolster Growth In Foreseeable Future?

Arista Networks’ results for the fourth quarter of 2024 reflect significant strides and some challenges in various segments.
The company reported revenue of $1.93 billion for the quarter, contributing to an annual growth of approximately 19.5%, surpassing its initial forecast of 10-12% amidst robust AI-related demand.
This performance helped achieve a non-GAAP operating margin of 47.5%, marking a solid financial standing.

Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings – The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

We Doctor’s business structure has undergone significant changes. Its positioning has become the AI-enabled healthcare solutions provider. The current business model of We Doctor is To G (To Government) model.
Whether We Doctor can replicate Tianjin model in other cities is uncertain because it may not have deep connections/resources in new cities/regions. Profit model of AI+ healthcare isn’t yet clear.
We Doctor’s Pre-IPO valuation has reached US$6.7 billion, which is too expensive. Reasonable valuation could be just US$1-2 billion, and should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Mar-2025): HP cuts 2k jobs, offshores China manufacturing for NA by 4Q25

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

HP plans to cut 2,000 jobs and shift 90% of its manufacturing from China to North America by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Hushan successfully transforms car door handles into profitable aftermarket products, carving out a niche in the market.
IBM closes its research facility in China and lays off 1,800 employees, while companies like Jabil, Aequs, and Tata export Indian-made Apple components to China and Vietnam.

Shift4 Payments: Why Its Unified Commerce Platform Expansion Is Driving Our Bullishness!

Shift4 Payments Inc. reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, setting records across several key performance indicators.
The company announced a 49% year-over-year increase in end-to-end payment volumes to $47.9 billion and a 50% rise in gross revenue less network fees, amounting to $405 million.
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 51% to $205.9 million, while adjusted free cash flow saw a significant rise of 78% to $134 million.

Cadence Design Systems: AI-Powered EDA Tools Are Revolutionizing Chip Design!

Cadence Design Systems Inc. reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with notable achievements in revenue and operating margins.
The year concluded with a record backlog of $6.8 billion, reflecting heightened demand for Cadence’s AI-driven chip-to-systems portfolio and the expanded application of its AI solutions in semiconductor innovation.
The company observed exceptional momentum in its partnerships, including with NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Marvell, highlighting increased adoption of its AI-powered products such as Cadence Cerebrus, SimAI, and Allegro X AI.

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Mar 03

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 28th): Elite Material and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 28th): Elite Material, Lotes, Chung-Hsin Electric & Machinery Mfg
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 28th): Kakao, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Feb 28th): Airports of Thailand, CP Foods, PTT, Bangkok Bank
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 28th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 28th): Elite Material, Lotes, Chung-Hsin Electric & Machinery Mfg

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 28th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Elite Material, Lotes, Chung-Hsin Electric & Machinery Mfg, Pharmaessentia, Global Unichip.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 28th): Kakao, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Feb 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD482.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD951mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Kakao, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Feb 28th): Airports of Thailand, CP Foods, PTT, Bangkok Bank

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Feb 28th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Airports of Thailand, CP Foods, PTT, Bangkok Bank, PTT GlobalChem.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 28th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD993.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,316mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, Accton Technology, Unimicron Technology.

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Mar 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names
Sparx Launches Another Offensively Underpriced Takeover at a Fat Premium – SNT (6319) +94%
Merger Arb Mondays (03 Mar) – Seven & I, Makino, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Tam Jai, Vesync, Insignia
Pentamaster (1665 HK): Pricing WAS Fair As Offer Comfortably Gets Up
Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer
Weekly Update (MIDD, SNDK, RHLD, SNRE)
SSI Weekly Newsletter Highlights: SWTX and NATH Potential Buyouts, LQDA FDA Update and More
Strategic Reviews, Mergers, and Asset Sales: Analyzing Upside Potential in Active Portfolio Ideas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best.
Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have ever had. By a long ways.
This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes cleared HK$800bn for the second week in a row. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$75bn which was perhaps a new record.
Notable again is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$865bn traded and SOUTHBOUND “only” bought HK$75bn, HK$395bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.
Last week I flipped to short Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). Sentiment may worsen and there’s lots to sell later this week. Staying short Alibaba for now.

Sparx Launches Another Offensively Underpriced Takeover at a Fat Premium – SNT (6319) +94%

Sparx on Friday announced a Tender Offer at 0.55x book and an EV of less than inventory (<20% of revenue) for Snt Corp (6319 JP) – another metal monozukuri company.
Last year they did it on IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP). That one got bumped. This one could too, but cross-holders own nearly 60%.
This kind of company has skill-sets which may be portable but the product line is tied to old Japan. The takeover

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Mar) – Seven & I, Makino, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Tam Jai, Vesync, Insignia

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Tonami Holdings (9070 JP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Tam Jai International (2217 HK).
Lowest spreads: Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Proto Corp (4298 JP).

Pentamaster (1665 HK): Pricing WAS Fair As Offer Comfortably Gets Up

By David Blennerhassett

Pentamaster International (1665 HK)‘s Scheme overwhelmingly gets up after a wild week of trading.
After touching an intra-day low of HK$0.78/share on the 25th Feb – 28% adrift of the HK$1.00/share terms – shares closed at HK$0.97/share prior the results of the Scheme Meeting.
58.2% of disinterested shareholders opted to vote. Just 0.5% of those shareholders present voted against the Scheme; or just 0.29% of total disinterested shareholders. Not even close.

Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer

By Special Situation Investments

AEON Mall (8905 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.
The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July.
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.

Weekly Update (MIDD, SNDK, RHLD, SNRE)

By Richard Howe

On Monday, Western Digital (WDC) spun off its NAND flash business, Sandisk (SNDK).
On Friday, CompoSecure (CMPO) spun off its management company, Resolute Holdings (RHLD).
During the week, we got earnings from Howard Hughes (HHH) and Sunrise Communications (SNRE).

SSI Weekly Newsletter Highlights: SWTX and NATH Potential Buyouts, LQDA FDA Update and More

SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX) is in late-stage acquisition talks with Merck KGaA, with a potential buyout offer at $85/share.
Liquidia (LQDA) had its FDA case denied, delaying Yutrepia’s market entry until May 2025, with commercialization on track.
ContextLogic (LOGC) received a $150m strategic investment from BC Partners, enhancing its cash balance and NOL monetization potential.

Strategic Reviews, Mergers, and Asset Sales: Analyzing Upside Potential in Active Portfolio Ideas

By Special Situation Investments

Sage Therapeutics rejected Biogen’s $7.22/share offer, initiating a strategic review for potential sale, indicating a possible higher premium.
SPAR Group’s merger with Highwire Capital faces uncertainty due to funding issues, with potential for significant stock price decline.
Kronos Bio’s strategic review follows clinical trial discontinuation, with potential sale or reverse merger, trading below net cash value.

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Mar 03

Daily Brief ECM: JX Advanced Metals IPO Preview and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

JX Advanced Metals IPO Preview
Weekly Deals Digest (02 Mar) – Japan Post Bank, 7&I, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Mixue, JXAM
MIXUE IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx
Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Why Not Own International Peers Instead?
ECM Weekly (3rd Mar 2025) – Japan Post Bank, JX Advance, Mixue, Chifeng, JSW Cement, Premier, Guzman

JX Advanced Metals IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is seeking to raise about ¥460 billion in the upcoming IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The indicative IPO price is ¥862 per share.
The final IPO pricing will be on 10 March. JX Advanced Metals will be listed on 19 March. Eneos is selling as many as 534.9 million shares in the IPO.
The company has a strong customer base. It is a key supplier to TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron for sputtering targets and high-purity metals.

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Mar) – Japan Post Bank, 7&I, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Mixue, JXAM