Daily Briefs

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved.
Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.

SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add

Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them.
Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It’s worth a look.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532) – High Growth, OK Multiple, Big Index Inclusion Coming Up?

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is a high-growth consulting company. This year sees 22% annual revenue growth and 25% OP growth to Feb 2025. Q3 results come out tomorrow.
The stock has a fairly large and concentrated active institutional holder base, though interestingly, the foreign active insto base is very long-tailed. LOTS of investors hold this.
The company is likely to see an index inclusion imminently which will over time mean a buy of more than a third of Maximum Real World Float.

HMM’s Shaping up to Be a Solid Pick for Classic Dividend Arbitrage Plays

By Sanghyun Park

To stay in the Value-up index by June, HMM needs to maintain high ROE, but with 2023’s dip and a 2024 estimate around mid-10%, they’ll be borderline in the rankings.
Local markets expect HMM’s dividend payout to range from 840 KRW to mid-1,000 KRW, with a yield of 4.5% to 8%, while futures show mild backwardation in February and March.
HMM may finalize the dividend and announce the record date by late January, with the record date likely in mid to late February.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Calls CC Capital’s $4.30/Share NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

After wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU) announced – and subsequently rejected Bain’s A$4.00/share Offer, CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with its own A$4.30/share NBIO.
IFL have yet to reach an opinion on CC Capital bid. And to make things interesting, Bain has sweetened its Offer to $4.30/share, matching CC Capital’s terms.
What now? Either, IFL opens the data room to both parties. Or rejects both. I think they should engage.

CVSG: A Special Sit with 2x Potential

CVS Group plc (“CVSG”) has seen its share price take a hit recently, but the decline seems to stem from two short-term issues rather than any real damage to the business fundamentals.
The first blow came in March 2024 when the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) unexpectedly announced a nationwide review of veterinary services for household pets.
These investigations typically last 12 to 18 months, so we’re looking at a resolution by late 2025 with a mid term resolution being around the corner mid-year.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Changes in March

There could be 1 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 3.12bn (US$426m). Passives need to trade between 0.24-0.33x ADV in the potential changes.
There is one very close add and the final list could change depending on price performance over the next 10 trading days.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

By John Ley

Tough week with 82% of optionable stocks we survey declining on the week but no sign of panic as investors still prefer Calls over Puts.
Tencent was far and away the volume leader, accounting for 37% of all option trading.
Materials was the only Sector to see price gains and implied vol rose across all Sectors we survey.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief Macro: A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025
Experts Offer Insights As Vietnam Joins PEFC For EUDR Rubber
Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)
China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?
Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds
The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies
Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?
US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo
Global Commodities: Right on cue
Global FX: No calm before the storm

A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025

By The Bid

Equity markets have performed well in the past two years, with 2024 being another strong year
Looking ahead to 2025, we explore the impact of inflation, interest rates, and artificial intelligence on the market
BlackRock’s global CIO discusses the rarity of three years of 20%+ returns, opportunities in AI, and challenges facing investors in the new year.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Experts Offer Insights As Vietnam Joins PEFC For EUDR Rubber

By Vinod Nedumudy

Highlights · VFCS/PEFC certification covers 123,927 ha of rubber plantations · PEFC EUDR Due Diligence System shows the way for Vietnam · Experts point to offer of premium as new opportunity In its efforts to align with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), Vietnam has made significant strides through the Vietnam Forest Certification System (VFCS) and its partnership with the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC).
Giving Vietnam Forest Certification Office’s (VFCO’s) insights on navigating EUDR, Dr. Nguyen Hoang Tiep, Deputy Director, VFCO, said at the Vietnam Rubber Dinner 2024 Seminar held at White Palace Convention Centre in Ho Chi Minh City on December 12 that the VFCO-PEFC efforts aim to ensure sustainable forestry practices and facilitate compliance with stringent international requirements for deforestation-free commodities.
Vietnam became the 50th member of the PEFC in 2019, marking an important step in integrating international standards into its forestry sector.

Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)

By Andreas Steno

Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.
Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.
This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.

China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?

By Andreas Steno

Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.
This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.
Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.

Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds

By Odd Lots

Term premium is a key concept in measuring bond yields and interest rates
The global economy is experiencing fiscal pressures and political noise, impacting bond markets
Central bank asset purchases and sell-offs, along with regulatory reforms, are influencing the bond market and interest rates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

By Nomura – The Week Ahead

Trump plans to put serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to immigration and drug issues, impacting Asian currencies
US and UK CPI data in focus for the week ahead, with expectations of higher inflation
Currency depreciation pressures in Asia expected to continue, with China and Korea most vulnerable to depreciation pressures

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

By Nitin Mangal

The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.
The Fed’s balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.
Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Right on cue

China implementing stimulus measures to boost growth
Cold weather leading to increased demand for heating fuel oil
Global oil inventories at record lows, with improving sentiment on China leading to potential increase in domestic demand.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: No calm before the storm

Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief Australia: Insignia Financial and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Calls CC Capital’s $4.30/Share NBIO

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Calls CC Capital’s $4.30/Share NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

After wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU) announced – and subsequently rejected Bain’s A$4.00/share Offer, CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with its own A$4.30/share NBIO.
IFL have yet to reach an opinion on CC Capital bid. And to make things interesting, Bain has sweetened its Offer to $4.30/share, matching CC Capital’s terms.
What now? Either, IFL opens the data room to both parties. Or rejects both. I think they should engage.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief South Korea: HMM Co., Ltd., Medy Tox Inc, Doosan Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

HMM’s Shaping up to Be a Solid Pick for Classic Dividend Arbitrage Plays
Dongbang Medical IPO Preview
Doosan Corp – NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

HMM’s Shaping up to Be a Solid Pick for Classic Dividend Arbitrage Plays

By Sanghyun Park

To stay in the Value-up index by June, HMM needs to maintain high ROE, but with 2023’s dip and a 2024 estimate around mid-10%, they’ll be borderline in the rankings.
Local markets expect HMM’s dividend payout to range from 840 KRW to mid-1,000 KRW, with a yield of 4.5% to 8%, while futures show mild backwardation in February and March.
HMM may finalize the dividend and announce the record date by late January, with the record date likely in mid to late February.

Dongbang Medical IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Dongbang Medical is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in February 2025. The IPO price range is from 9,000 won to 10,500 won.
According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of the comps ranges from 191 billion won to 223 billion won.
Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.

Doosan Corp – NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

By Douglas Kim

Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.
Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp.
Considering Doosan Group’s repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Keppel REIT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Experts Offer Insights As Vietnam Joins PEFC For EUDR Rubber
REIT Watch – Larger S-Reits rank among those with highest net retail inflows in 2024

Experts Offer Insights As Vietnam Joins PEFC For EUDR Rubber

By Vinod Nedumudy

Highlights · VFCS/PEFC certification covers 123,927 ha of rubber plantations · PEFC EUDR Due Diligence System shows the way for Vietnam · Experts point to offer of premium as new opportunity In its efforts to align with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), Vietnam has made significant strides through the Vietnam Forest Certification System (VFCS) and its partnership with the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC).
Giving Vietnam Forest Certification Office’s (VFCO’s) insights on navigating EUDR, Dr. Nguyen Hoang Tiep, Deputy Director, VFCO, said at the Vietnam Rubber Dinner 2024 Seminar held at White Palace Convention Centre in Ho Chi Minh City on December 12 that the VFCO-PEFC efforts aim to ensure sustainable forestry practices and facilitate compliance with stringent international requirements for deforestation-free commodities.
Vietnam became the 50th member of the PEFC in 2019, marking an important step in integrating international standards into its forestry sector.

REIT Watch – Larger S-Reits rank among those with highest net retail inflows in 2024

By Geoff Howie

Retail investors have been net buyers of real estate investment trust (S-REITs) in 2024 amid volatile performance for the sector during the year.
These investors net bought some S$1.6 billion across the sector in 2024, bringing their total net inflows into S-REITs over the past five years to over S$6 billion.
Across the broader Singapore market, the REIT sector was also the sector with the highest net retail inflows in 2024, followed by Real Estate (excluding REITs), which saw around S$400 million in net inflows.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Cambricon Technologies Lt, CNY, Tencent, Hang Seng Index, Sunac China Holdings, Freetech Intelligent Systems, Longfor Properties and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook
STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Changes in March
The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10
EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI January 06 – 10
Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.
Freetech Zhejiang Intelligent Technology Pre-IPO
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

By Arun George

The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions.
I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Thoughts About The Mandatory General Offer and Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.
Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.
The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Changes in March

There could be 1 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 3.12bn (US$426m). Passives need to trade between 0.24-0.33x ADV in the potential changes.
There is one very close add and the final list could change depending on price performance over the next 10 trading days.

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

By Nomura – The Week Ahead

Trump plans to put serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to immigration and drug issues, impacting Asian currencies
US and UK CPI data in focus for the week ahead, with expectations of higher inflation
Currency depreciation pressures in Asia expected to continue, with China and Korea most vulnerable to depreciation pressures

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

By John Ley

Tough week with 82% of optionable stocks we survey declining on the week but no sign of panic as investors still prefer Calls over Puts.
Tencent was far and away the volume leader, accounting for 37% of all option trading.
Materials was the only Sector to see price gains and implied vol rose across all Sectors we survey.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI January 06 – 10

By John Ley

HSI and HSCEI were down every day this past week.
HSI total Put volume heavier than total Call volume on the two largest down days this week showing rising concern amongst investors.
Having dropped 5.6% to start the year HSI has already moved well past the implied move at the start of the month.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.
Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.
UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.

Freetech Zhejiang Intelligent Technology Pre-IPO

By Nicholas Tan

Freetech Intelligent Systems (1901036D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
The firm is a leading intelligent driving solutions provider, covering advanced assistance system (ADAS) and autonomous driving system (ADS) technologies.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Logan Group, Vedanta Resources, Sunny Optical
In the US, the December 2024 nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly jumped to 256 k (165 k e / 212 k revised p), with November’s data adjusted downwards by 15 k. Average hourly earnings edged down to 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p) and 3.9% y-o-y (4.0% e / 4.0% p), while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% (4.2% e / 4.2% p).
Separately, the January 2025 (preliminary) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 73.2 (74.0 e / 74.0 p). The one-year inflation expectation among consumers soared to 3.3% (2.8% e / 2.8% p), the highest since May 2024 and above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief United States: Destiny Tech100, Block , USD, Crude Oil, Pbf Energy Inc Class A, Cocoa Futures, Angiodynamics Inc, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Destiny XYZ Is Destined to Crash
Block Inc (SQ) – Sunday, Oct 13, 2024
US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo
Global Commodities: Right on cue
Global FX: No calm before the storm
PBF Energy: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks
Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze?
Closing 5 ideas | Jan 13, 2025
Grocery Outlet Holding: Will Its Efforts Towards Margin Stability & Reintegration Yield Results? – Major Drivers

Destiny XYZ Is Destined to Crash

By Fern Wang

Market Euphoria and Investment Challenges: Trump’s re-election has fueled excitement in the stock market, especially for Elon Musk-linked companies, but investing in SpaceX remains difficult due to its private status.
Proxy Stocks: Investors can access SpaceX indirectly through proxy stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB) or funds such as Destiny Tech100 Inc. (DXYZ) and the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX).
Valuation Concerns on DXYZ: Despite DXYZ’s significant outperformance compared to other proxies, its rapidly expanded market cap/fair value multiple raises concerns about overvaluation and stock price sustainability.

Block Inc (SQ) – Sunday, Oct 13, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
Company’s dedication to Bitcoin and its ecosystems driving future shareholder returns, despite being misunderstood due to its history

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.
The Fed’s balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.
Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Right on cue

China implementing stimulus measures to boost growth
Cold weather leading to increased demand for heating fuel oil
Global oil inventories at record lows, with improving sentiment on China leading to potential increase in domestic demand.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: No calm before the storm

Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

PBF Energy: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

PBF Energy’s latest earnings present a nuanced picture of the company’s current status and future outlook.
The company reported an adjusted net loss of $1.50 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $60.1 million for the third quarter of 2024.
This performance reflects a challenging period characterized by weaker market conditions, particularly in terms of refinery margins and crude differentials.

U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks

By Suhas Reddy

The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the first time in six weeks, as it fell by 5 to 584 for the week ending 10/Jan.
For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.56m bpd from 13.57m bpd the week prior.
U.S. oil rig count fell by 2 to 482 while gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Producers cut three rigs in Texas and one each from Utah and Colorado.

Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze?

By The Commodity Report

Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze? During last week, cocoa prices surged again after Hershey’s reportedly asked the US commodity regulator for permission to buy a huge amount (more than currently allowed) of cocoa through the New York exchange in the midst of high prices and an ongoing cocoa deficit in the market.
Bloomberg reported that the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups wants to take a position that will allow it to purchase more than 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on ICE Futures US, citing people familiar with the matter.
This is an order that equates to about 5,000 20-foot containers.

Closing 5 ideas | Jan 13, 2025

By Turtles all the way down

I am taking several off the list, first one being Angiodynamics (ANGO) written up here .
It jumped in the past week on a slightly improved forecast to a high of $13. I wrote it up at $6.9.
I think fair value is around $12-15 or so, so no longer all that interesting.

Grocery Outlet Holding: Will Its Efforts Towards Margin Stability & Reintegration Yield Results? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (Grocery Outlet) finds itself in a period of transition, with recent leadership changes and challenges impacting its performance.
During the third quarter of fiscal 2024, the company reported net sales growth of 10.4% to $1.11 billion, driven by a mix of new store openings and a modest 1.2% increase in comparable store sales.
However, the comparable store sales growth was tempered by execution challenges related to recent system transitions, highlighting an operational hurdle that the company aims to overcome.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Anthem Biosciences, GNA Axles Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / IVs Jump on HMPV Scare Then Grind Lower as Mkts Hold Support.
Anthem Biosciences Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
GNA Axles (INE934S01014): Steady Q3FY25 Earnings, Major Expansion and Sustainability Push

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / IVs Jump on HMPV Scare Then Grind Lower as Mkts Hold Support.

By Sankalp Singh

IVs jump early as sentiment soured, but trailed off through the week as underlying markets held support zones. Vol-Regime Model retains “High & Down” state.
Skew & Smile unchanged over the week in spite of the rollercoaster ride in IVs. Term-structure experienced to-and-fro swings.
Trading Strategy Implications: Iron Condor/ Butterfly structures to be continued as long as regime model indicates “High & Down” vol state.

Anthem Biosciences Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise up to US$397m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JMF, Citi, JP Morgan and Nomura.
It is a Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
As a one-stop service provider, ABS serves a range of customers, including innovator-focused emerging biotech companies and large pharmaceutical organizations globally.

GNA Axles (INE934S01014): Steady Q3FY25 Earnings, Major Expansion and Sustainability Push

By Sreemant Dudhoria

GNA Axles Ltd (GNA IN) reported Q3FY25 results with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 5%, 11%, and 13%, respectively. The improvement in operating margin was driven by lower operating expenses.
In October 24, the company’s board approved a major capital expenditure program of INR 4 billion for manufacturing facilities and renewable energy.
The stock trades at an attractive valuation of 16x P/E for FY25 with 15% RoE and RoCE.

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Jan 14

Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , Shift Inc, BayCurrent Consulting , Ryohin Keikaku, Kioxia Holdings , BASE Inc, Mirai Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand
SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding
BayCurrent Consulting (6532) – High Growth, OK Multiple, Big Index Inclusion Coming Up?
Muji Growing Fast but Not to ¥3 Trillion by 2030
Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Japan and South Korea
BASE Inc (4477 JP): “Shopify of Japan” at 0.8x EV/Sales
MIRAI Corporation (3476) – Stringent Cost Control and Expansion of Variable Rents for Hotels

Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved.
Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.

SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add

Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them.
Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It’s worth a look.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532) – High Growth, OK Multiple, Big Index Inclusion Coming Up?