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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Inageya Co Ltd, Liontown Resources, Japan Post Bank, HDFC Bank (ADR), Eoflow , Kokusai Electric , SK Telecom, EcoPro Materials, CELSYS, Daesang Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Aeon (8267) Partial Tender at ¥1610 for Inageya (8182) Aiming for Takeover Next Year
  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float
  • October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review – $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium
  • Merger Arb Mondays (09 Oct) – Eoflow, Haitong Intl, NWS, Boustead, Newcrest, Liontown, Hollysys
  • ECM Weekly (8th Oct 2023) – Kokusai, J&T Global, Doosan, Cainiao, Ecopro, UBox, JSW Infra, Seibu
  • Korea – Positioning in Stocks That Could Have Global Passive Flows
  • Ecopro Materials IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Needs a Margin of Safety
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2023)
  • Prime Target for Flow Trading Due to Low Pre-Exposure in December KOSPI 200 Rebalancing


Aeon (8267) Partial Tender at ¥1610 for Inageya (8182) Aiming for Takeover Next Year

By Travis Lundy

  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) agreed in late April to prepare a plan so Aeon would buy 51% this year.
  • They would combine Inageya with 53+%-owned United Super Markets (3222 JP) aiming for a ¥1trln sales supermarket chain in Kanto. That is due end- calendar 2024.
  • There is a partial offer to buy 33+% of Inageya at a small premium, and inadequate price before merging next year. Cross-holders determine pro-ration.

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float

By Brian Freitas

  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU) is trading near A$3/share, the level of Albemarle Corp (ALB US)‘s revised offer and where Hancock Prospecting has been buying recently. 
  • With Hancock Prospecting accumulating a stake of nearly 17% over the last month, there will be a float reduction for Liontown Resources (LTR AU) in the next few months.
  • Short interest has been increasing and the passive selling could provide an exit for the shorts. But Hancock Prospecting could also use the opportunity to buy more Liontown Resources stock.

October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review – $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie

By Travis Lundy

  • The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review details are out. This is the biggest FFW review of the year. This year, it’s $11.3bn a side. 
  • As discussed in Japan Post Bank (7182) – The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment, JPB is the big buy. $2bn/23d of ADV. There is $2bn to buy of trading cos too.
  • There are lots of large names to trade in both directions. If you have interests to sell the buys and vice versa, it is good to know the flows.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 59% and the HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) premium to the local line has dropped to 7%.
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has underperformed its peers and the local indices on expectations of lower NIMs and higher NPAs.
  • There will be passive buying in HDFC Bank in December and March. Further passive buying will require foreign room to increase above 25% which will first require foreign investor selling.

Merger Arb Mondays (09 Oct) – Eoflow, Haitong Intl, NWS, Boustead, Newcrest, Liontown, Hollysys

By Arun George


ECM Weekly (8th Oct 2023) – Kokusai, J&T Global, Doosan, Cainiao, Ecopro, UBox, JSW Infra, Seibu

By Sumeet Singh



Ecopro Materials IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Needs a Margin of Safety

By Ethan Aw

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its Korean IPO.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will share our thoughts on valuation.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Since my last insight, CellSource (4880 JP) and Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) have confirmed they will move to TSE Prime which means they will be included in TOPIX at end-November.
  • FP Partner (7388 JP) and I-NE (4933 JP) will get included in TOPIX at the end of October.

Prime Target for Flow Trading Due to Low Pre-Exposure in December KOSPI 200 Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Posco DX’s KOSPI 200 fast entry effective date will likely coincide with the December regular rebalancing date.
  • We should focus on the ad-hoc change deletion as we can expect more pronounced price impact near the effective date due to lower chances of premature exposure than regular reviews.
  • The following three candidates are screened: K Car, Daesang Corporation, and Shinsegae International. They are all likely to exhibit a significant passive impact (x ADTV).

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Daily Brief Australia: South32 Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Have South32 Shares Bottomed Out?


Have South32 Shares Bottomed Out?

By Pranay Yadav

  • South32 is an Australian metal and mining firm spun off from BHP in 2015. Unlike mining majors, South32 holds smaller but concentrated assets.
  • Aluminium operations is the firm’s primary revenue source followed by coking coal operations. Coking coal contributes to 32% of the underlying EBITDA.
  • With its share price having got battered, South32 stock is compellingly priced relative to MVR ETF paving way for a compelling long-short trade.

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Daily Brief South Korea: SK Telecom, Daesang Corporation, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, EcoPro Materials and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea – Positioning in Stocks That Could Have Global Passive Flows
  • Prime Target for Flow Trading Due to Low Pre-Exposure in December KOSPI 200 Rebalancing
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Industry Analysis
  • EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case



Prime Target for Flow Trading Due to Low Pre-Exposure in December KOSPI 200 Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Posco DX’s KOSPI 200 fast entry effective date will likely coincide with the December regular rebalancing date.
  • We should focus on the ad-hoc change deletion as we can expect more pronounced price impact near the effective date due to lower chances of premature exposure than regular reviews.
  • The following three candidates are screened: K Car, Daesang Corporation, and Shinsegae International. They are all likely to exhibit a significant passive impact (x ADTV).

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Industry Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide additional industry analysis of Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp which is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks.
  • The IPO of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is an important signal that the Korean government may allow greater competition in the local surety insurance market in 2-3 years. 
  • SGIC has promised high dividends. If we assume the IPO price at the low end of the IPO price range (39,500 won), this would suggest a dividend yield of 8%.

EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$500 million in a KRX IPO.  
  • EcoPro Materials is offering 14.5 million shares at an IPO price range of KRW36,200-46,000 per share. Book building runs from 30 October to 3 November, with pricing on 7 November.  
  • The bull case rests on attractive addressable markets, aggressive production capacity expansion, ambition to be the leading non-Chinese player, strong revenue growth and improving cash conversion cycle. 

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Daily Brief India: Eicher Motors, Titan Co Ltd, Juniper Hotels, West China Cement and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Competitive Position Strengthening
  • [Week 6] Namaste India 🙏 | TTAN’s Glittery Update and Earnings Workbook
  • Juniper Hotels Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development, Lenovo, Tata Steel Thailand, West China Cement


Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Competitive Position Strengthening

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Our dealer checks across a couple of Eicher Motors (EIM IN) and Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) dealerships indicate a strengthening competitive position for Royal Enfield. 
  • After the initial hype, customers are now shifting back to Royal Enfield. 
  • As competition ramps up production, we continue to believe that the market will expand, and there will be no fight for market share.

[Week 6] Namaste India 🙏 | TTAN’s Glittery Update and Earnings Workbook

By Pranav Bhavsar


Juniper Hotels Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Juniper Hotels (6593708Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$217m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial, CLSA and ICICI Securities. 
  • Juniper Hotels is the largest owner by no. of keys of Hyatt affiliated hotels in India as of 2Q23 (30th Jun 23), according to Horwath. 
  • The company is jointly held by Saraf Hotels and its affiliate, Juniper Investments and Two Seas Holdings (an indirect subsidiary of Hyatt Hotels Corporation).

Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development, Lenovo, Tata Steel Thailand, West China Cement

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: Micron Technology, Nike, Granite Ridge Resources , Marizyme, Home Depot Inc, Paychex Inc, Carnival Corp, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Darden Restaurants, EngageSmart LLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Micron Technology Inc.: Unpacking the Strategies Behind Their Recent Financial Performance! – Major Drivers
  • NIKE Inc.: Zooming Into The Success Of Their D2C Marketplace Model & New Innovations! – Major Drivers
  • Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. – Private Equity Growth Strategy in a Public E&P Company
  • Marizyme, Inc. – DuraGraft Approved for US Markets
  • Technical Analysis on HOME DEPOT INC. | August 25, 2023
  • Paychex Inc.: Decoding Their Investments In AI & What It Means for the Future! – Major Drivers
  • Carnival Corporation: How Strong Demand is Driving Success Across North America and Europe! – Major Drivers
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.: Decoding Their Strategic Response to Changing Market Trends! – Major Drivers
  • Darden Restaurants Inc.: Exploring Their Innovative Approach to Boosting Brand Equity! – Major Drivers
  • EngageSmart Inc: General Atlantic Weighs Selling This Hidden Gem In Payment Solutions!


Micron Technology Inc.: Unpacking the Strategies Behind Their Recent Financial Performance! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Micron Technology, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Their management has provided insights into the ongoing underutilization charges and inventory write-downs that have impacted the company’s financials.
  • This rise in underutilization has led to corresponding charges in the fourth quarter, which are expected to continue into fiscal year 2024.

NIKE Inc.: Zooming Into The Success Of Their D2C Marketplace Model & New Innovations! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nike Inc. delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • The company managed a decent growth amidst various challenges over recent years, including societal, geopolitical, global health issues, and supply chain disruptions.
  • With revenues increasing from $39 billion in fiscal 2019 to over $50 billion, Nike’s growth rate surpasses the overall industry.

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. – Private Equity Growth Strategy in a Public E&P Company

By Water Tower Research

  • Granite Ridge was formed in 2022 to execute a private equity investment strategy in a public company vehicle.

  • The strategy is to allocate capital to non-operated oil and natural gas development opportunities in order to grow the company’s underlying asset base and support its common stock dividend.

  • Grey Rock Investment Partners contributed the assets of three investment funds to facilitate Granite Ridge’s business combination transaction with Executive Network Partnering Corporation (ENPC).


Marizyme, Inc. – DuraGraft Approved for US Markets

By Water Tower Research

  • Key milestone in FDA approval. On October 6, Marizyme, Inc. (MRZM) announced a key milestone in its growth strategy, with FDA approval of its flagship DuraGraft (DG) technology for the US market.

  • Improved outcomes when used in cardiac care. DG has been proven to result in significantly improved outcomes and lower costs for cardiac surgery through multiple clinical trials as well as utilization in selected markets in Europe and Asia where adoption has recently accelerated.

  • Reflecting that, YTD DG-driven revenue is already more than double the level of 2022.


Technical Analysis on HOME DEPOT INC. | August 25, 2023

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer.
  • It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products.
  • It also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, bath, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, and windows. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. 

Paychex Inc.: Decoding Their Investments In AI & What It Means for the Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Paychex, Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • The company has commenced fiscal year 2024 with robust results, including a 7% growth in total revenue and an 11% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share.
  • Strong new sales revenue growth was driven by continued demand for HR technology and advisory solutions.

Carnival Corporation: How Strong Demand is Driving Success Across North America and Europe! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Carnival Corporation & plc delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, firmly establishing its position as a leader in the industry.
  • The company’s net income surpassed an impressive billion, while EBITDA exceeded billion.
  • Additionally, Carnival exceeded its revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income guidance for the quarter, demonstrating the strength of its operations.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.: Decoding Their Strategic Response to Changing Market Trends! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Walgreens’s quarter was marked by solid sales growth and a return to adjusted earnings growth.
  • The main part of this plan is the launch of “Walgreens Health,” a technology-enabled care model that will give people in local communities more personalized health care.

Darden Restaurants Inc.: Exploring Their Innovative Approach to Boosting Brand Equity! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Darden Restaurants, Inc. delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • This growth highlights the company’s ability to drive profitable sales through a solid business model and unwavering strategy.
  • To fortify its brands, Darden Restaurants highlights its unique qualities through marketing initiatives that elevate brand equity, prioritize simplicity in execution, and maintain profitability.

EngageSmart Inc: General Atlantic Weighs Selling This Hidden Gem In Payment Solutions!

By Baptista Research

  • This is a one-time special report on EngageSmart Inc, a customer engagement and integrated payment solutions player that is under the spotlight following rumors that General Atlantic LLC is mulling over selling the company.
  • The company’s financial health amplifies its allure, boasting a significant 28% year-over-year surge in revenue for Q2, reaching an impressive $94.4 million.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Post Bank, CELSYS, Money Forward , Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review – $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2023)
  • Money Forward (3994) | Show Me the Money
  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Mixed Q2FY24 Result- Some Points Worth of Paying Attention
  • Manager’s Real Intent to Prevent Further Increase in Ratio of Independent Directors Is Revealed


October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review – $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie

By Travis Lundy

  • The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review details are out. This is the biggest FFW review of the year. This year, it’s $11.3bn a side. 
  • As discussed in Japan Post Bank (7182) – The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment, JPB is the big buy. $2bn/23d of ADV. There is $2bn to buy of trading cos too.
  • There are lots of large names to trade in both directions. If you have interests to sell the buys and vice versa, it is good to know the flows.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Since my last insight, CellSource (4880 JP) and Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) have confirmed they will move to TSE Prime which means they will be included in TOPIX at end-November.
  • FP Partner (7388 JP) and I-NE (4933 JP) will get included in TOPIX at the end of October.

Money Forward (3994) | Show Me the Money

By Mark Chadwick

  • Money Forward’s share price dipped 20% post-Q2 results, but strong operational performance and upward sales revisions make it appealing.
  • We expect 42% YoY sales growth in Q3 and believe long-term growth prospects remain exceptional against the market size.
  • Management to deliver profitability next FY, meeting investor demands to “show me the money” – we remain bullish

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Mixed Q2FY24 Result- Some Points Worth of Paying Attention

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) announced mixed Q2FY24 result, with single-digit revenue growth and bottom-line decline. Revenue grew 5% YoY to ¥34.9B, while operating profit declined 8% YoY to ¥4B.
  • Salonpas line of OTC pain relieving patches have become major growth driver of the company. In Q2FY24, Salonpas revenue increased 14% YoY, lowest growth rate reported in last five quarters.
  • Despite 70%+ progress of operating and net profits, Hisamitsu reiterated FY24 guidance. Declining margins, anticipated increase in SG&A expenses, and high base call for massive fall in profit in H2FY24.

Manager’s Real Intent to Prevent Further Increase in Ratio of Independent Directors Is Revealed

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The Kankeiren intends to prevent further increases in the ratio of independent directors because of the small number of candidates for outside directors.
  • One reason why the substance of the Corporate Governance Code has not improved is that independent directors are a minority on the board.
  • The company is also responsible for not developing female internal executive director candidates, relying on outside directors for female directors, and not appointing foreign talent to the board.

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Daily Brief China: China Unicom Hong Kong, Tianju Dihe Technology, WuXi AppTec, SHEIN, Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd, Hang Seng Index, West China Cement and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change; Capping Impact Increases
  • Tianju Dihe Technology IPO Preview: Data Drives The Future
  • WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) – Would the Recent Rebound in Share Price Be a Flash in the Pan?
  • As a Group, Typical SHEIN & Temu Users in the US Lack Political Clout; Why It Matters
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation Continues
  • Lalatech Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth and Profit Pickup but Valuation Gap Remains
  • EQD | HSI WEEKLY Resistance Levels UPDATED
  • Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development, Lenovo, Tata Steel Thailand, West China Cement


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change; Capping Impact Increases

By Brian Freitas


Tianju Dihe Technology IPO Preview: Data Drives The Future

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Tianju Dihe Technology, more commonly known as Juhe Data, filed to go public in Hong Kong. The company provides standard API services through its APIHub marketplace in China. 
  • Tianju Dihe Technology plans to trade on the HKSE, and CITIC Securities is leading the IPO. The company was backed by JD Technology, a fintech unit of JD.com. 
  • With a market leadership position and a mission to empower the digital economy with data technologies, I have no doubt that Tianju Dihe Technology will have a successful IPO.

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) – Would the Recent Rebound in Share Price Be a Flash in the Pan?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi AppTec’s share price has performed well recently, mainly driven by CXO’s “immune attributes” to anti-corruption campaign, investors’ bullish view of weight loss drug business, and the previous oversold rebound.
  • Peptide CDMO business would contribute limited incremental performance to WuXi AppTec considering overall large business volume.Downward trend of CRO business is hard to be hedged by weight loss drug business.
  • Due to higher-for-longer rate, China CXOs only have rebound value, but no reversal logic. It’s time to consider taking profits in a timely manner before the share price falls again.

As a Group, Typical SHEIN & Temu Users in the US Lack Political Clout; Why It Matters

By Daniel Hellberg

  • US users of the popular SHEIN and Temu shopping apps tend to be relatively young
  • Compared to older Americans, younger Americans (18-34) tend to have less political clout
  • What does this mean for SHEIN and Temu, and how will they respond to political challenges?

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation Continues

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
  • Given stock selection uses liquidity as a major input, the impact of passive trading will be much larger on the deletions as compared to the additions.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes, but relative performance has been drifting lower over the last few months. There are stocks that will have flows from other indices.

Lalatech Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth and Profit Pickup but Valuation Gap Remains

By Sumeet Singh

  • Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will talk about the updates from its refiling.

EQD | HSI WEEKLY Resistance Levels UPDATED

By Nico Rosti

  • The HSI INDEX has fallen for 2 more weeks since our last insight – current CC is =-5, and Q3 support was breached last week, the index is clearly OVERSOLD.
  • If the HSI bounces this week, it could be an occasion to go SHORT – take note that the index could take 3 weeks to rally before rolling down again.
  • The target price area where to enter SHORT trades,to benefit from a continuation of the downtrend is: 17598-18784.

Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development, Lenovo, Tata Steel Thailand, West China Cement

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Liontown Resources, EcoPro Materials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float
  • Ecopro Materials IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Needs a Margin of Safety


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float

By Brian Freitas

  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU) is trading near A$3/share, the level of Albemarle Corp (ALB US)‘s revised offer and where Hancock Prospecting has been buying recently. 
  • With Hancock Prospecting accumulating a stake of nearly 17% over the last month, there will be a float reduction for Liontown Resources (LTR AU) in the next few months.
  • Short interest has been increasing and the passive selling could provide an exit for the shorts. But Hancock Prospecting could also use the opportunity to buy more Liontown Resources stock.

Ecopro Materials IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Needs a Margin of Safety

By Ethan Aw

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its Korean IPO.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nws Holdings, Dongfang Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NWS Holding (659 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Don’t Miss Out on This Undervalued Play


NWS Holding (659 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

By Arun George

  • The pre-condition for the Nws Holdings (659 HK) voluntary general offer from the Cheng family is satisfied. The total offer (HK$9.15 + 2H dividend) is HK$9.46 per share.
  • The key condition is (majority vote) approval by independent NWD shareholders. NWD’s share price decline and dependency on NWS earnings/cash flow support a NO vote.
  • A reasonable offer which reduces NWD’s gearing, results in a special dividend and helps reduce the holding company discount supports the YES vote. We think that the YES vote prevails.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Don’t Miss Out on This Undervalued Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The YTD underperformance of Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) has put it on very attractive PER of 5.8x for FY23. More importantly, it has delivered both earnings and new order growth. 
  • Financial position has improved with net cash of Rmb16.5bn and its recurring earnings soared 26.5% at 1H23. The adverse economic environment has not had an impact on its operations.
  • New orders amounted to Rmb48.9bn (+33.3% YoY), a record high, and we estimate backlog at Rmb166bn. This equals 2.5x FY23F revenue and suggests forward earnings are well covered.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Foxconn Industrial Internet, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Consolidating After Big Outperformance
  • VIS (5347:TT): The Outlook Is a Bit Slower in 4Q23F
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Consolidating After Big Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

  • Over 90% of the way through the review period, we see 9 potential adds/10 potential deletes in December. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 6.1% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.27bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes this year though there has been a deterioration in performance over the last few months.

VIS (5347:TT): The Outlook Is a Bit Slower in 4Q23F

By Patrick Liao

  • Vanguard’s order visibility is about two months, and its order backlog is also about two months now.
  • Vanguard’s goal is to establish a 12″ wafer Fab, which we estimate will likely be viable around 2026F.
  • We believe that technology nodes below 28nm HKMG, specifically 40nm and below, would be suitable for transfer.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Samsung Electronics and Nanya Technology will report their results this week. Samsung could reportedly increase NAND prices this month, giving a potential hint to the memory outlook they will provide.
  • Hon Hai will begin mass production of its Model C electric car in 4Q23E in Taiwan. This will provide a proof point for Hon Hai’s global EV platform business model.
  • Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names — One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.

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