All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (3rd Dec 2023) – Denso and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (3rd Dec 2023) – Denso, Toyota, Zensho, Asahi, Kotak, Zomato, Zeekr, Tatatech, IREDA
  • Weekly Deals Digest (03 Dec) – Denso, T&K Toka, CIMC Vehicles, Origin, OreCorp, Hollysys, BPLANT


ECM Weekly (3rd Dec 2023) – Denso, Toyota, Zensho, Asahi, Kotak, Zomato, Zeekr, Tatatech, IREDA

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, Tata Technologies and IREDA continued the India IPO juggernaut. 
  • On the placements front, there seems to be no stopping Japan flows.

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Dec) – Denso, T&K Toka, CIMC Vehicles, Origin, OreCorp, Hollysys, BPLANT

By Arun George


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: 2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • 2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees
  • [Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Fufeng
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) – Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech
  • 3Q Follow-Up – D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP)
  • [Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation


2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China stock market despair has brought down  China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) to its lowest forward valuation in the past ten years   
  • Poised for long-term growth, Chinese are buying albeit more prudently, government supportive on promoting domestic consumption, efficiency enhancements will lower cost and boost margins 
  • Using the company’s lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24, we derive a target price of CNY106 (+21% UPSIDE)  

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

By Ying Pan

  • Meituan reported C3Q23 top line (1.0%)/0.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP net income (9.7%)/8.3% vs our estimate/consensus. Subsidies and investment in in-store business is the main reason for bottom-line miss.
  • Meituan in-store GTV increased 90% YoY in 3Q23, effectively counteracted Douyin’s attack and maintained size ratio at 3:1 vs. Douyin in-store, which scarified profit.
  • Meituan OPM lowered 2.5ppt QoQ to 4.4% in 3Q23, and we expect it decline to 2.4% in 4Q23.

Asian Dividend Gems: Fufeng

By Douglas Kim

  • Fufeng (546 HK)’s core businesses include food additives such as MSG, animal nutrition, high-end amino acids, and colloid such as xanthan gum. 
  • Xantham gum is increasingly becoming popular as millions of people around the world purchase gluten free foods.
  • Fufeng’s dividend yield averaged 7.5% annually from 2018 to 2022. Its current dividend yield is about 11-12%. Fufeng is trading at P/E of 2.9x and EV/EBITDA of 1.8x in 2024. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) – Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. 
  • Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.
  • Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.

3Q Follow-Up – D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Major milestones with high expectations coming in the next 2-3 years: 1) Phase IIb US trials for H-1337 as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug” for patients who do not respond to PGs
  • 2) 2023 application, 2024 approval and 2025 launch of DW-1002 in Japan, 2023 application/approval/launch in China, as well as expedited development of combination formula MembraneBlue-DualR (DW-1002 + trypan blue) in the US [NEW]
  • 3) clinical trials in 2024 in Japan and application for approval in 2025 of regenerative cell medicine DWR-2206 

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

By Ying Pan

  • Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.
  • We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors
  • We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
  • Japan Activism:  Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price
  • Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake
  • Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical
  • Quiddity ASX Dec 23 Index Rebal: Beware of Pre-Positioning


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

By Brian Freitas


Japan Activism:  Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Catalyst Fund is a relatively young effort in the Japan “engagement activism” space, having been founded by Monex Group in September 2019. Total assets remain apparently small.
  • Championed by Monex Group founder Oki Matsumoto, despite small AUM, the fund has decent access. As of end-October, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings (4581 JP) was #5 and 5.26%. Now it’s #2.
  • Friday, they released a statement about the MBO. It isn’t a barn-burner, but the stock has traded through terms since announcement at a too-low price. And nobody else has commented.

Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake

By Travis Lundy

  • The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.
  • Cosmo wasn’t going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out. 
  • A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, Iwatani Corp (8088 JP) announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san’s 20.01% holding.

Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Dec 23 Rebal: Inflow Names Could Outperform Outflow Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st December 2023.
  • The index changes were mostly in line with our final expectations.
  • In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

By Brian Freitas

  • The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
  • There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
  • Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

By David Blennerhassett


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity ASX Dec 23 Index Rebal: Beware of Pre-Positioning

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2023 review results for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st December 2023.
  • There will be three ADDs and thee DELs for the ASX 200 index. There are no changes for ASX 20, 50, and 100.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our index flow expectations, trends in short interest, and the recent trading performance of the names involved in the ASX 200 changes.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Boss Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity ASX Dec 23 Index Rebal: Beware of Pre-Positioning


Quiddity ASX Dec 23 Index Rebal: Beware of Pre-Positioning

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2023 review results for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st December 2023.
  • There will be three ADDs and thee DELs for the ASX 200 index. There are no changes for ASX 20, 50, and 100.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our index flow expectations, trends in short interest, and the recent trading performance of the names involved in the ASX 200 changes.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: Uber Technologies , Hollysys Automation Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

By Brian Freitas


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

By Brian Freitas

  • The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
  • There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
  • Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical

By David Blennerhassett


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin, Cosmo Energy Holdings , Denso Corp, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Activism:  Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price
  • Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy
  • 3Q Follow-Up – D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP)
  • Weekly Deals Digest (03 Dec) – Denso, T&K Toka, CIMC Vehicles, Origin, OreCorp, Hollysys, BPLANT
  • ECM Weekly (3rd Dec 2023) – Denso, Toyota, Zensho, Asahi, Kotak, Zomato, Zeekr, Tatatech, IREDA


Japan Activism:  Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Catalyst Fund is a relatively young effort in the Japan “engagement activism” space, having been founded by Monex Group in September 2019. Total assets remain apparently small.
  • Championed by Monex Group founder Oki Matsumoto, despite small AUM, the fund has decent access. As of end-October, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings (4581 JP) was #5 and 5.26%. Now it’s #2.
  • Friday, they released a statement about the MBO. It isn’t a barn-burner, but the stock has traded through terms since announcement at a too-low price. And nobody else has commented.

Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake

By Travis Lundy

  • The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.
  • Cosmo wasn’t going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out. 
  • A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, Iwatani Corp (8088 JP) announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san’s 20.01% holding.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

By David Blennerhassett


3Q Follow-Up – D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Major milestones with high expectations coming in the next 2-3 years: 1) Phase IIb US trials for H-1337 as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug” for patients who do not respond to PGs
  • 2) 2023 application, 2024 approval and 2025 launch of DW-1002 in Japan, 2023 application/approval/launch in China, as well as expedited development of combination formula MembraneBlue-DualR (DW-1002 + trypan blue) in the US [NEW]
  • 3) clinical trials in 2024 in Japan and application for approval in 2025 of regenerative cell medicine DWR-2206 

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Dec) – Denso, T&K Toka, CIMC Vehicles, Origin, OreCorp, Hollysys, BPLANT

By Arun George


ECM Weekly (3rd Dec 2023) – Denso, Toyota, Zensho, Asahi, Kotak, Zomato, Zeekr, Tatatech, IREDA

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, Tata Technologies and IREDA continued the India IPO juggernaut. 
  • On the placements front, there seems to be no stopping Japan flows.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Meituan, Fufeng, Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech C, Bilibili and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees
  • [Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Fufeng
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) – Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech
  • [Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation


2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China stock market despair has brought down  China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) to its lowest forward valuation in the past ten years   
  • Poised for long-term growth, Chinese are buying albeit more prudently, government supportive on promoting domestic consumption, efficiency enhancements will lower cost and boost margins 
  • Using the company’s lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24, we derive a target price of CNY106 (+21% UPSIDE)  

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

By Ying Pan

  • Meituan reported C3Q23 top line (1.0%)/0.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP net income (9.7%)/8.3% vs our estimate/consensus. Subsidies and investment in in-store business is the main reason for bottom-line miss.
  • Meituan in-store GTV increased 90% YoY in 3Q23, effectively counteracted Douyin’s attack and maintained size ratio at 3:1 vs. Douyin in-store, which scarified profit.
  • Meituan OPM lowered 2.5ppt QoQ to 4.4% in 3Q23, and we expect it decline to 2.4% in 4Q23.

Asian Dividend Gems: Fufeng

By Douglas Kim

  • Fufeng (546 HK)’s core businesses include food additives such as MSG, animal nutrition, high-end amino acids, and colloid such as xanthan gum. 
  • Xantham gum is increasingly becoming popular as millions of people around the world purchase gluten free foods.
  • Fufeng’s dividend yield averaged 7.5% annually from 2018 to 2022. Its current dividend yield is about 11-12%. Fufeng is trading at P/E of 2.9x and EV/EBITDA of 1.8x in 2024. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) – Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. 
  • Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.
  • Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

By Ying Pan

  • Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.
  • We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors
  • We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: Teco Electric & Machinery, Helia Group , Zhongjin Gold Corp A, Amman Mineral Internasional, Ito En Ltd Preferred Shares, REPT BATTERO Energy, KCE Electronics PCL, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin, Sun Hung Kai Properties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 18% One-Way Turnover & US$2.74bn Trade
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance: 14 Changes & A Few Surprises
  • Amman Mineral (AMMN IJ): Potential Passive Inflows Coming Up Soon
  • Itoen Pref (25935 JP) – Big Discount, Big Buyback, No Big Governance Change
  • REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Scaled Rapidly
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: KCE Could Replace TIDLOR
  • GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF’s Move To Send The Board Packing
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (1 Dec 2023): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Co-Founder Selling Akeso


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 18% One-Way Turnover & US$2.74bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 20 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.8% and a one-way trade of US$1.37bn.
  • There are 16 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1-day ADV to trade.

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 3 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.
  • Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 14 Changes & A Few Surprises

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 14 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 8 December.
  • While most changes are in line with forecasts, there are some stocks that have not been added or deleted as the index committee has used their discretion.
  • The adds outperformed the deletes in the first half of the year with performance staying stable over the second half of the year. Position for outperformance ahead of implementation.

Amman Mineral (AMMN IJ): Potential Passive Inflows Coming Up Soon

By Brian Freitas

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) listed on the Main Board of the IDX in July by raising US$715m in the largest Indonesia IPO for the year.
  • The stock did not get Fast Entry to any of the local or global indices given the low float, but there could be multiple index inclusions in the near future.
  • The stock is up 3x from its IPO price and there could be supply from some of the investors that got in at the offering price.

Itoen Pref (25935 JP) – Big Discount, Big Buyback, No Big Governance Change

By Travis Lundy

  • This is always a tough subject, but every now and then I throw myself on the mercy of the ho-humming crowd and write about the Ito En Prefs (25935 JP).
  • No strong catalyst. Limited capacity for strongly better governance. Even less apparent corporate interest in good governance. 
  • But we have a mini-catalyst, and it has been a while, and I think there IS a good way to think about this stock, so here’s another crack at it.

REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Scaled Rapidly

By Sumeet Singh

  • REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT HK) is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT) is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer in China, focusing on R&D, production, and sales of EV/ESS lithium-ion battery products such as battery cells, modules and packs. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: KCE Could Replace TIDLOR

By Brian Freitas


GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF’s Move To Send The Board Packing

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27 January 2023, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) entered an agreement with Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) to sell its 28.22% stake in GAPack (468 HK)
  • That sale completed in September.  Last week, XJF requisitioned an EGM to consider appointing five new (& friendly) directors, all-but taking control of the board. 
  • CEO and founder Jeff Bi holds 9.65%. The question is: what are his options?

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (1 Dec 2023): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Co-Founder Selling Akeso

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Twitter Inc, Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Elon Musk’s “Global Sewer” May Derail Bankers’ Trying To Finally Dump Toxic Twitter LBO Debt
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?


Elon Musk’s “Global Sewer” May Derail Bankers’ Trying To Finally Dump Toxic Twitter LBO Debt

By Vicki Bryan

  • I warned Elon Musk wouldn’t help his beleaguered banks via refi of billions in losing LBO debt they foolishly fronted him to buy Twitter.
  • He can’t even stop setting it and himself on fire every day.
  • Now he admits Twitter is being killed by the advertiser boycott he again caused—but takes no responsibility for his incendiary actions.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF, Pan African Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Crude Prices Tank Despite OPEC+ Supply Cuts; Brazil to Join OPEC+
  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys
  • Pan African Resources – Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts


Crude Prices Tank Despite OPEC+ Supply Cuts; Brazil to Join OPEC+

By Pranay Yadav

  • Virtual OPEC+ meeting was held on 30th November after being delayed by five days. Outcome was an increase and extension of supply cuts till Q1 2024.
  • WTI rallied 2.5% heading into the meeting but fell 4% shortly after due to scepticism over members following through on cuts and short-term nature of agreement.
  • OPEC+ announced that Brazil would join the coalition in early 2024. A move that unites most top crude oil producers in the cartel with major geopolitical ramifications.

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • In our October 26, 2023 Int’l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
  • Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
  • We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology

Pan African Resources – Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

By Edison Investment Research

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit 2). However, it increases our confidence in those estimates, which are already at the top of a relatively wide range of expectations.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars