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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

TMT: Sea Ltd, Win Semiconductors, Mercari Inc, ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd, Persistent Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SEA Buy Alignments into a New Low
  • WinSemi (3105.TT): 1Q22 Review/ 2Q22 Preview- To Be Further Downside
  • Mercari – Problems, Problems, But We Are Getting Bulled Up Anyway
  • ASE Holding (ASX.US; 3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook- 2022 Outlook Is Bright
  • Persistent Systems: Robust Business & Strong Execution to Provide Growth

SEA Buy Alignments into a New Low

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SEA sell volumes are deteriorating into new lows with two buy tranche levels outlined to align with the RSI near 25 as the primary long trigger.
  • Selling exhaustion is noted as the descending price wedge matures. Sell volumes deteriorating into new low sets up the entry.
  • 102 is the key hurdle to clear with macro targets at 132 and 170. Buy probe near 70 with a higher conviction buy near 54.

WinSemi (3105.TT): 1Q22 Review/ 2Q22 Preview- To Be Further Downside

By Patrick Liao

  • For 2Q22 guidance, the revenue declines high single digits % QoQ, and GM falls between high twenties to low-thirties.
  • The current China smartphone inventory digestion won’t influence WinSemi’s expansion plan because it’s in construction phase now.
  • It is due to cellular for 2Q22 decline, which is not easy to clarify whether it’s 4G, or 5G.

Mercari – Problems, Problems, But We Are Getting Bulled Up Anyway

By Mio Kato

  • Mercari’s 3Q results underwhelmed with both revenue (-4.5%) and OP (¥2.9bn loss vs. a predicted ¥1.0bn profit) missed. 
  • Guidance was also weak and problems with rising fraudulent transactions in Japan and low tax reporting thresholds for sellers in the US are headwinds. 
  • Nevertheless, the drastic fall in the stock price appears to have gotten far ahead of these problems and ignores the bright future of the company in our view.

ASE Holding (ASX.US; 3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook- 2022 Outlook Is Bright

By Patrick Liao

  • In the 2Q22 guidance, the revenue for ATM/EMS is ~NT$76.7bn/NT$61.2bn, the GM for ATM is ~27.5% and OPM for EMS is ~8.8%.
  • In the first quarter, ASE Holding already surpassed the historical peak of 27% gross margins. And ASE Holding will see that trend continue.
  • It’s a normal phenomenon that ASE Holding is seeing inventory level being higher than before.

Persistent Systems: Robust Business & Strong Execution to Provide Growth

By Axis Direct

  • Persistent Systems Ltd (Persistent) reported strong and broad-based growth in Q4FY22 and beat our expectations on all key parameters.
  • The company’s revenue stood at Rs 1,638 Cr, up 9.8% QoQ and 42.2% YoY. Its operating profits registered a growth of 14% QoQ to Rs 230 Cr and operating margins marginally expanded by 40bps QoQ to 14%
  • We recommend a BUY rating on the stock and assign a 38x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs 126.8/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 4,820/share, indicating an upside potential of 18% from CMP.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: CNOOC Ltd, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources, Taste Gourmet Group, HKEX, Scivita Medical Technology, Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CNOOC (883 HK) Surprises with Special Div
  • HSCEI Dividend Futures: CNOOC Special Drives 2022 Fair Value Higher, 22/23 Steepener Lower
  • Beijing Enterprises Urban (3718 HK)’s Curious And Underwhelming Offer
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Taste Gourmet: Reopening Play in Hong Kong
  • HKEx (388.HK): Resilient 1Q22 Earning Results Better than Feared
  • Pre-IPO Scivita Medical Technology – The Industry, the Business, and the Concerns
  • KWG Group – Event Flash – Investor Call Updates – Lucror Analytics

CNOOC (883 HK) Surprises with Special Div

By Travis Lundy

  • CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) released fantastic, above-consensus earnings for Q1, which were minimally impacted (positively) by non-recurring profits. 
  • The driver was higher gas production on much higher prices. At current price, the implied PER is 3.0x for 2022.
  • And the company also announced a Special Dividend of HK$1.18/share or 10.9% of yesterday’s share price. 

HSCEI Dividend Futures: CNOOC Special Drives 2022 Fair Value Higher, 22/23 Steepener Lower

By Brian Freitas

  • Last evening CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) announced a special div of HK$1.18/share – that is higher than market expectations. JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) could announce a special div next week.
  • Fair value for the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures moves higher to 250 DIPS off the back of CNOOC Ltd‘s special div and the estimated JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) special div.
  • The HSCEI 2022/23 steepener had dropped to -29 yesterday and should drop even lower today where we could see some covering.

Beijing Enterprises Urban (3718 HK)’s Curious And Underwhelming Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK) (BEUR) has announced a mandatory general cash offer from Beijing Enterprises Water Group (371 HK) (BEW). 
  • This Offer was triggered by BEW increasing its stake to 31.23% from 29.97%. The Offer price is HK$0.78/share, a zero premium to last close and 20% above the 30-day average. 
  • This is an underwhelming privatisation Offer. BEUR traded through terms as recent as last November. The Offer price has not been declared final.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Taste Gourmet: Reopening Play in Hong Kong

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK) CFO and Company Secretary, Gerald Yu. In the upcoming webinar, Gerald will share a short company presentation with on-the-ground insights from Hong Kong, after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Analyst Sameer Taneja. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 17 May 2022, 17:00 SGT.

Taste Gourmet Group Limited is a Hong Kong-based restaurant group offering a variety of cuisines, under a portfolio of brands, to a diversified customer base. Since the opening of its first restaurant in 2007, the group has owned and operated a total of 34 restaurants offering Vietnamese, Japanese, Chinese, Western, and Drink under 14 brands, including 11 self-owned brands such as La’taste Vietnamese Cuisine, Dab-Pa Peking & Szechuan Cuisine, Dab-Pa Peking & Szechuan Bistro, Dab-pa Modern Chinese Cuisine, Urawa Japanese Restaurant, Nabe Urawa, Rakuraku Ramen, Wasyohuya Yamaichi, Moments Together, Yakiniku Guu, San-Kinn, three licensed brands known as Parkview, Takano Ramen, and Tirpse, and one joint venture brand known as Xianghui.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.


HKEx (388.HK): Resilient 1Q22 Earning Results Better than Feared

By Roger Xie

  • HKEX (388 HK) core businesses such as cash market and stock connect remain robust against the backdrop of relatively low expectation.
  • Mark-To-Market investment loss underscored the volatile fixed income market, we expect the negative impact will continue into 2Q22 as the shift in rate environment.
  • MSCI China A50 future continues its rapid ramp-up, ADV is up 86% quarter-over-quarter. Overall future trading is strong, ADV is up 39% quarter-over-quarter.

Pre-IPO Scivita Medical Technology – The Industry, the Business, and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Scivita Medical Technology (SMT HK) has certain technical advantage and a comprehensive portfolio of products and candidates, which would help the Company seize a position in this market.
  • There are also some potential risks and concerns that could be unfavorable for Scivita’s development, which should be aware of by investors.
  • In terms of the valuation, SonoScape and Aohua Endoscopy (688212.CH) could be the comparable companies, but the valuation of Scivita should be lower than either of them.

KWG Group – Event Flash – Investor Call Updates – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

KWG Group’s disclosure and transparency during the investor call are encouraging, though we believe that its plan to repay the USD 900 mn notes in September is subject to some executional risk. In particular, the raising of additional secured loans would be subject to banks’ willingness to lend against the Ap Lei Chau project. We stated previously that it was unclear if KWG and Logan would be able to profitably launch the project for sale, as the record land price would be a stumbling block. That said, KWG should be able to receive steady cash collections from the sale of the remaining units at its Kai Tak project. Assuming a 50% sell-through rate, this could fetch an attributable HKD 1.5-1.75 bn in the coming months. In addition, KWG might be able to supplement its liquidity with asset disposals, particularly if it is willing to dispose of them at a discount.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Indonesia: Astra International, Arwana Citramulia, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero, AKR Corporindo, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – The Perfect Storm Driving Performance
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) A Finely Glazed Future
  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Let the Re-Rating Continue
  • AKRA Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Front and Centre on Economic Recovery and Commodities
  • Morning Views Asia: PT Pertamina (Persero), Sands China Ltd, Vedanta Resources

Astra International (ASII IJ) – The Perfect Storm Driving Performance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International 1Q2022 numbers reflect its prime positioning as a beneficiary of recovering domestic growth in Indonesia and its exposure to the commodities boom through United Tractors (UNTR IJ).
  • It has increased market share in autos through Toyota and Daihatsu plus holds a strong position in providing auto, motorcycle, and heavy equipment financing providing further geared exposure. 
  • Astra International has a war chest from the sale of Bank Permata which is yet to be deployed but could be in the digital space as a future potential catalyst.

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) A Finely Glazed Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) released a strong set of 1Q2022 surpassing expectations and paving the way for strong growth in 2022 driven by an improving product mix.
  • ASPs for Arwana are increasing through changing product mix, which is improving margins but not suppressing demand with a move to higher-end Digi Uno and ARNA products. 
  • A webinar with management confirmed the positive outlook for 2022, with an estimate of +30% bottom-line growth forecast from increased volumes, greater efficiencies, and higher ASPs through improved product mix.

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Let the Re-Rating Continue

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) released a solid set of 1Q2022 results, with new loan bookings improving to pre-pandemic levels, strong non-interest income, and improving credit costs.
  • The bank continues to pursue a multi-pronged digital strategy, with strong growth in mobile banking which now surpasses ATMs on transactions plus the launch of Bank Mayora digital bank.
  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) has already seen some upward re-rating since the last results but this can continue as its digital strategy bites and loan growth and NIMs improve.

AKRA Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Front and Centre on Economic Recovery and Commodities

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) results continued to reflect its key exposure to both economic recovery in Indonesia and its exposure to rising commodity prices through its chemical distribution.
  • Volume growth in petroleum distribution may surprise on the upside, whilst chemical prices remain elevated boosting that business.
  • The pipeline for its JIIPE industrial estate looks promising and management remains confident in targeting 40 ha land sales with potential upside from Freeport Smelter related demand. 

Morning Views Asia: PT Pertamina (Persero), Sands China Ltd, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Most Read: Keppel Corp, Hitachi Transport System, Yangzijiang Financial Holding, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • The Keppel Restructuring – Forward Sum Of The Parts Makes KEP Look Cheap. And It Is… But…
  • Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M Combination: Details & Index Implications
  • Hitachi Transport System (9086) Shareholders Get the BIG Win in This VLBO
  • Straits Times Index (STI) Rebalance Preview: YZJFH Is the Delete
  • ToyoKen (1890)- Infroneer Declines to Bid Up, YFO Now In Driver’s Seat – Now It’s A Range Trade

The Keppel Restructuring – Forward Sum Of The Parts Makes KEP Look Cheap. And It Is… But…

By Travis Lundy

  • The Keppel O&M / SMM Combination and Keppel Rig Asset Restructure were announced today and the arithmetic is both tough and interesting. There’s a little magic here.
  • KEP shareholders receive SMM shares worth ~1/3 of today’s share price, and the rest is currently valued at well under Net Tangible Assets post-Restructuring/Transaction.
  • That suggests Keppel has upside, but one must think carefully about the exposures.

Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M Combination: Details & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


Hitachi Transport System (9086) Shareholders Get the BIG Win in This VLBO

By Travis Lundy

  • KKR and Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) have a deal to get KKR to buy Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) in a VLBO (Very Leveraged BuyOut). 
  • As somewhat expected, it is a “split price deal” where Hitachi will accept a lower price for its 40% stake than minorities will receive in a Tender Offer. 
  • This is a big win for Hitachi Transport shareholders, but the Tender Offer likely won’t start until late September.

Straits Times Index (STI) Rebalance Preview: YZJFH Is the Delete

By Brian Freitas


ToyoKen (1890)- Infroneer Declines to Bid Up, YFO Now In Driver’s Seat – Now It’s A Range Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP) today released a change to its Target Opinion Statement for Infroneer’s takeover bid at ¥770/share. It supports the tender itself, but withdraws its recommendation investors tender.
  • Infroneer refused to raise their price, so this effectively kills their bid (though they will extend). TC will engage with Yamauchi Family Office which has separately offered to bid ¥1,000/share.
  • The dynamics have now changed. This is a range trade, and will likely take time unless Infroneer says “I’ll sell at ¥1,000/share.”

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Health Care: Teladoc Health, Inc., Scivita Medical Technology, Align Technology, Sanofi India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC US): 1Q22 Results Review- Revenue Missed, 2022 Guidance Reduced
  • Pre-IPO Scivita Medical Technology – The Industry, the Business, and the Concerns
  • Align Technology (ALGN US) Q1 Results: Both Revenue and Earnings Miss, First Time in Last Two Years
  • Sanofi India – Beat on Margins; Strong Recovery Sequentially

Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC US): 1Q22 Results Review- Revenue Missed, 2022 Guidance Reduced

By Tina Banerjee

  • Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC US) reported Q1 results, in-line with its prior guidance. However, 2022 guidance cut has played the spoilsport.
  • Teladoc shares plummeted more than 40% in 2022 to trade near 52-week low. With the near-term noises persist, shares will need time to recover.
  • With the current market dynamics in certain areas of operation not in favor of Teladoc, recent downfall in shares does not represent an attractive buying opportunity.

Pre-IPO Scivita Medical Technology – The Industry, the Business, and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Scivita Medical Technology (SMT HK) has certain technical advantage and a comprehensive portfolio of products and candidates, which would help the Company seize a position in this market.
  • There are also some potential risks and concerns that could be unfavorable for Scivita’s development, which should be aware of by investors.
  • In terms of the valuation, SonoScape and Aohua Endoscopy (688212.CH) could be the comparable companies, but the valuation of Scivita should be lower than either of them.

Align Technology (ALGN US) Q1 Results: Both Revenue and Earnings Miss, First Time in Last Two Years

By Tina Banerjee

  • Align Technology (ALGN US) reported underwhelming Q1 results. Both revenue and earnings missed consensus and were down sequentially.
  • Sequential results primarily reflect lower volumes mainly due to continued impact of the COVID-19 causing lesser patient traffic and practice closure.
  • Due to increased uncertainty across all its operating markets, the company suspended 2022 revenue guidance. Earlier, Align guided for 20–30% y/y revenue growth in 2022.

Sanofi India – Beat on Margins; Strong Recovery Sequentially

By Nirmal Bang

  • Investing in dominant brands: Sanofi India has been relying on the growth of dominant brands like Lantus, Toujeo, Amaryl and Allegra in the domestic portfolio.
  • We currently assume Lantus to come under DPCO: While the new NLEM list is yet to be finalized and there is a probability that Lantus may be included in the same.
  • Potential introduction of other insulin products in India: Sanofi’s parent company has received approval for the biosimilar version of other insulin brands in regulated markets and we believe the company would look to introduce these biosimilar versions in India too.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

India: Campus Activewear Ltd, Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC), Tata Motors DVR, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Nippon Life India Asset Management, INR 10Y, Hindustan Unilever, Indian Hotels, Minda Industries Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Campus Activewear IPO: Mysterious Return Ratios
  • Life Insurance Corporation of India IPO – Regional Peer Comparison
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close
  • Bajaj Finance Ltd – Operationally Strong; Web Platform Completes Omnichannel Strategy
  • Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd – Weakness in Yields Due to Competition and Adverse Mix
  • Yields in Asia Are Far from the Peak
  • Hindustan Unilever – Volumes Surprises; Expect Further Sequential Inflationary Pressure
  • Hindustan Unilever – Home Care Saves the Day; Margin Pressure Continues
  • Indian Hotels Company – RevPar Impacted Amid Omicron Wave
  • Minda Industries – Outlook Intact; New Products to Drive Outperformance

Campus Activewear IPO: Mysterious Return Ratios

By Nitin Mangal

  • Campus Activewear Ltd (1535013D IN) is about to go public soon. 
  • The RHP has portrayed Campus’s return ratios such as ROCE to be one of the highest in its peer group, inching past the likes of Bata India Ltd (BATA IN).
  • However, upon further investigation of the financials, the return ratios seem to be mysterious, simply because of capital reserve arising from acquisition of promoter-companies, back when Ind AS was adopted.

Life Insurance Corporation of India IPO – Regional Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India IPO.
  • This is less than half of its initial plans in terms of fundraising target and comes at less than half of its initial valuation target.
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we compare it to its international peers and talk about valuations.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

By Brian Freitas


Bajaj Finance Ltd – Operationally Strong; Web Platform Completes Omnichannel Strategy

By Nirmal Bang

  • AUM growth likely to remain strong: Overall AUM increased by 29.1% YoY.
  • Customer acquisition will be supported by omnichannel strategy: Total customer franchise stood at 57.6mn, up 18% YoY.

  • Margins lower due to drop in yields: NII growth was 25% YoY for 4QFY22 and 29% for FY22.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd – Weakness in Yields Due to Competition and Adverse Mix

By Nirmal Bang

  • Market share up 22bps in FY22: Overall MF QAAUM increased by 23.9% YoY and 1% QoQ. Growth (YoY) in QAAUM was led by the equity segment on the back of buoyant capital markets over the last one year.
  • Maintaining leadership in B-30: B-30 sourcing continues to be strong for NAM at 17.2% compared to 16.6% for the industry.
  • New product launches; ramping up international business: The company has highlighted about a number of new product launches in the coming quarters, which include funds focused on international equities as well as domestic themes in the equity & debt segments.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Yields in Asia Are Far from the Peak

By Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

  • Rates in Asia are among the worst performers this year, but they remain expensive – relative to the US and to their own history – and should continue to underperform.
  • Other reasons for rates in Asia to sell off include: a marked increase in inflation, low projected real rates, currencies turning volatile, and deteriorating debt profiles.
  • I like paying rates in Asia by pairing them with receivers in countries in other regions. China is an exception in the region as it remains in an easing mode.

Hindustan Unilever – Volumes Surprises; Expect Further Sequential Inflationary Pressure

By Nirmal Bang

  • 4QFY22 headline performance: HUVR’s standalone turnover (including other operating income – OOI) grew by 11% YoY to Rs134.6bn (vs our est. of Rs129.9bn).
  • 4QFY22 segmental performance: Home Care surprised us, growing at 23.7% YoY; segment EBIT margin was down 140bps YoY at 19.8%. Beauty & Personal Care grew by 3.6% YoY; segment EBIT margin was down 130bps YoY at 26.2%.
  • Operating margins in line: While gross margin was lower than our expectation at 49.5% (vs est. of 51%), down ~300bps YoY at 49.5%.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Hindustan Unilever – Home Care Saves the Day; Margin Pressure Continues

By HDFC Securities

  • Beat on volume: Revenue grew 11% YoY (35% in Q4FY21 and 10% in Q3FY22), with home care/BPC/F&R growing 24/4/5% (11/2/11% three-year CAGR).
  • In-line EBITDA margin: Gross margin contracted by 301bps YoY (-117bps in Q4FY21 and -186bps in Q3FY22) due to high commodity inflation.
  • Call takeaways: (1) HUL continued to gain volume and value market share in more than 75% of its portfolio.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Indian Hotels Company – RevPar Impacted Amid Omicron Wave

By Nirmal Bang

  • We were surprised by the weak 4QFY22 results of Indian Hotels Company Ltd (IHCL) as it implied that the impact of Omicron was higher than what we had expected.
  • However, as indicated by the management on the conference call and in our own interactions with experts, there has been a strong demand revival from Corporates and MICE segments since April’22.
  • IHCL’s 4QFY22 revenue declined by 21.5% QoQ but increased by 41.8% YoY to Rs8,721mn.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Minda Industries – Outlook Intact; New Products to Drive Outperformance

By Emkay

  • Production ramp-up in progress on improving demand: The Pune switches plant caters to PV switches for OEMs such as Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Volkswagen Group, etc. 
  • Tie-ups and inorganic initiatives: MNDA will continue to explore global tie-ups and acquisitions with an objective of improving time-to-market for new technology products relating to PACE.
  • The introduction of safety regulations, such as BNVSA (Bharat New Vehicle Safety Assessment Program) and mandatory implementation of six airbags, as well as localization efforts through PLI/FAME2 schemes should drive sales for products such as airbags, EV parts and other electronic components.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

United States: Meta Platforms (Facebook), Teladoc Health, Inc., Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp VI, The Walt Disney Co, ACCO Brands, Align Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Facebook 1Q22: TikTok-Ified
  • Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC US): 1Q22 Results Review- Revenue Missed, 2022 Guidance Reduced
  • Could Starlink Go Public Through a SPAC?
  • Raiders of the Lost Disney
  • ACCO: Normalizing with Growth
  • Align Technology (ALGN US) Q1 Results: Both Revenue and Earnings Miss, First Time in Last Two Years

Facebook 1Q22: TikTok-Ified

By Aaron Gabin

  • Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.
  • Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind… just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other’s innovations.
  • Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.

Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC US): 1Q22 Results Review- Revenue Missed, 2022 Guidance Reduced

By Tina Banerjee

  • Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC US) reported Q1 results, in-line with its prior guidance. However, 2022 guidance cut has played the spoilsport.
  • Teladoc shares plummeted more than 40% in 2022 to trade near 52-week low. With the near-term noises persist, shares will need time to recover.
  • With the current market dynamics in certain areas of operation not in favor of Teladoc, recent downfall in shares does not represent an attractive buying opportunity.

Could Starlink Go Public Through a SPAC?

By subSPAC

  • Rumors of a Starlink IPO/SPAC deal have been slowly gaining momentum since 2020, as the company has continued to scale rapidly.
  • The deal speculation has only intensified in recent months, as investors seem convinced that the company could go public through a merger with a Chamath Palihapitiya-led SPAC.
  • Starlink, which is currently estimated to be worth between $30 and $40 billion, could be one of the largest and most prolific SPAC transactions to date.

Raiders of the Lost Disney

By Douglas Kim

  • The magic of Disney is lost. It is time to find it again.
  • In this insight, we discuss the major reasons of why we believe Disney could be the next major M&A target after Twitter Inc (TWTR US).
  • Disney needs to focus on its core competency which is providing great contents rather than publicly confronting politicians on highly sensitive issues.

ACCO: Normalizing with Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ACCO experienced a recovery in all its segments in the first quarter 2022, especially from COVID-19 related closures in Mexico and Brazil
  • ACCO reported comparable sales rose 11 percent compared to the prior year, but foreign exchange limited the quarter’s performance
  • ACCO is continuing to project a higher free cash flow than in 2021, which would be used to reduce its debt level.

Align Technology (ALGN US) Q1 Results: Both Revenue and Earnings Miss, First Time in Last Two Years

By Tina Banerjee

  • Align Technology (ALGN US) reported underwhelming Q1 results. Both revenue and earnings missed consensus and were down sequentially.
  • Sequential results primarily reflect lower volumes mainly due to continued impact of the COVID-19 causing lesser patient traffic and practice closure.
  • Due to increased uncertainty across all its operating markets, the company suspended 2022 revenue guidance. Earlier, Align guided for 20–30% y/y revenue growth in 2022.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Macro: Yields in Asia Are Far from the Peak and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Yields in Asia Are Far from the Peak
  • The Name Is Spread. Credit Spread.

Yields in Asia Are Far from the Peak

By Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

  • Rates in Asia are among the worst performers this year, but they remain expensive – relative to the US and to their own history – and should continue to underperform.
  • Other reasons for rates in Asia to sell off include: a marked increase in inflation, low projected real rates, currencies turning volatile, and deteriorating debt profiles.
  • I like paying rates in Asia by pairing them with receivers in countries in other regions. China is an exception in the region as it remains in an easing mode.

The Name Is Spread. Credit Spread.

By The Macro Compass

  • The main point behind the Financial Instability Hypothesis developed by Minsky was that artificial stability and low volatility generate complacency amongst economic agents and ultimately lead to suboptimal decisions: the seeds of the next crisis are sown in the good time.
  • Once economic agents are confident nothing can ever go wrong, borrowing happens on more and more relaxed terms until anybody qualifies for leverage without credible possibilities to produce enough cash flows to service their liabilities.
    And at some point, something breaks.
  • Credit spreads are an incredibly important variable to monitor if one wants to grasp at which stage of the leverage cycle we’re in: very narrow credit spreads imply borrowers have easy and abundant access to leverage while widening credit spreads are generally the canary in the coal mine for things to get worse for the private sector.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Japan: Hitachi Transport System, Toyo Construction, Softbank Corp, Shimano Inc, Oriental Land, Z Holdings, Koito Manufacturing, Monex Group Inc, Mercari Inc, Sky Perfect Jsat and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Hitachi Transport System (9086) Shareholders Get the BIG Win in This VLBO
  • ToyoKen (1890)- Infroneer Declines to Bid Up, YFO Now In Driver’s Seat – Now It’s A Range Trade
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Apr 2022
  • Shimano (7309): Bumpy Part 2 – Channel Checks
  • Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus
  • Z Holdings Q4 21 Results Reaction: Growth Pushed Back a Year; Downgrade to Neutral
  • Koito – Profitability Remains Under Pressure
  • Monex – Crypto Business Keeps Weakening But Valuation Discount Excessive
  • Mercari – Problems, Problems, But We Are Getting Bulled Up Anyway
  • Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q4 21 Results Reaction: A Huge Declaration of Confidence

Hitachi Transport System (9086) Shareholders Get the BIG Win in This VLBO

By Travis Lundy

  • KKR and Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) have a deal to get KKR to buy Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) in a VLBO (Very Leveraged BuyOut). 
  • As somewhat expected, it is a “split price deal” where Hitachi will accept a lower price for its 40% stake than minorities will receive in a Tender Offer. 
  • This is a big win for Hitachi Transport shareholders, but the Tender Offer likely won’t start until late September.

ToyoKen (1890)- Infroneer Declines to Bid Up, YFO Now In Driver’s Seat – Now It’s A Range Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP) today released a change to its Target Opinion Statement for Infroneer’s takeover bid at ¥770/share. It supports the tender itself, but withdraws its recommendation investors tender.
  • Infroneer refused to raise their price, so this effectively kills their bid (though they will extend). TC will engage with Yamauchi Family Office which has separately offered to bid ¥1,000/share.
  • The dynamics have now changed. This is a range trade, and will likely take time unless Infroneer says “I’ll sell at ¥1,000/share.”

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Apr 2022

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-April 2022.

Shimano (7309): Bumpy Part 2 – Channel Checks

By Henry Soediarko


Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Oriental Land (4661 JP) fell more than 10% today after a strong earnings beat in 4QFY22, which saw revenue and OP beat consensus by ¥7.0bn and ¥8.6bn respectively.
  • The medium-term outlook is very disappointing with the company expecting no pricing growth and low park attendance.
  • After moving up nonsensically during COVID due to extremely inflated medium-term consensus, we think Oriental Land’s share price could start falling apart after this medium-term plan announcement.

Z Holdings Q4 21 Results Reaction: Growth Pushed Back a Year; Downgrade to Neutral

By Kirk Boodry

  • FY22 EBITDA guidance is disappointing as strategic investments accelerate yet again and leaving investors uncertain on whether previous guidance for FY23 can be met
  • We think ZHD’s FY23 target of ¥ 390bn in EBITDA is reachable but a meaningful beat, which is factored into consensus, is less likely
  • So FY22 is another transition year but without the excitement on the potential for LINE as an alternative theme. It is better to be on the sidelines. 

Koito – Profitability Remains Under Pressure

By Mio Kato

  • Koito reported 4QFY22 results on the 27th of April and had a 16% revenue miss despite a 3% revenue beat for the quarter. 
  • Top line momentum remains strong overseas but material costs continue to pressure gross margins. 
  • Guidance for ¥67bn in OP was a significant miss vs. consensus at ¥92.3bn.

Monex – Crypto Business Keeps Weakening But Valuation Discount Excessive

By Mio Kato

  • Monex results were weak as OP of ¥14.9bn missed consensus estimates for ¥18.4bn in OP. 
  • Gains for DeFi token sales failed to offset continued heavy spending in the US and de-SPAC costs at Coincheck at a time when crypto has been weak. 
  • Despite the negatives, the Japan business continues to form a solid base and arguably almost justifies the entire market cap on its own.

Mercari – Problems, Problems, But We Are Getting Bulled Up Anyway

By Mio Kato

  • Mercari’s 3Q results underwhelmed with both revenue (-4.5%) and OP (¥2.9bn loss vs. a predicted ¥1.0bn profit) missed. 
  • Guidance was also weak and problems with rising fraudulent transactions in Japan and low tax reporting thresholds for sellers in the US are headwinds. 
  • Nevertheless, the drastic fall in the stock price appears to have gotten far ahead of these problems and ignores the bright future of the company in our view.

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q4 21 Results Reaction: A Huge Declaration of Confidence

By Kirk Boodry

  • Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP) posted Q4 results and guidance that are ahead of expectations for profitability
  • The company has unveiled plan to re-leverage and invest more, starting with its recently announced JV with NTT , underscoring its confidence in the potential of the space business
  • The plan also includes a c. 60% increase in shareholder returns over the next five years, likely through the flexible application of share buybacks

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

South Korea: WYSIWYG Studios, Chungdam Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSDAQ 150 Rebalancing: Changes & Passive Impacts
  • Chungdam Global IPO Preview


Chungdam Global IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Chungdam Global is getting ready to complete its IPO in the next several weeks. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 179 billion won to 204 billion won.
  • Chungdam Global sells Korean cosmetics and other global beauty brands to e-commerce companies in China and other countries. It generated more than 75% of its sales in 2021 from JD.com.
  • The company experienced exceptional growth in sales and profits in the past several years. Its sales and operating profits jumped by 97.4% and 204% CAGR from 2019 to 2021, respectively

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma