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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Natural Gas, Secure Energy Services, Copper, Crude Oil, Albemarle Corp, Eog Resources, Marathon Oil, Alamos Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: Weather and supply-side risks tighten their grip on price
  • Ave Maria Focused Fund’s Chadd Garcia on misreading waste-focused $SES.TO as energy services
  • Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy
  • OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025
  • US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks
  • Albemarle Corporation: Will Its Volume Growth & Asset Utilization Help Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
  • EOG Resources Inc.: Dealing With Strategic Infrastructure and Market Volatility Risks! – Major Drivers
  • Marathon Oil Corporation: Permian Basin Capital Allocation
  • Alamos Gold Inc.: PDA Project & Mulatos District Expansion Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers


Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: Weather and supply-side risks tighten their grip on price

By At Any Rate

  • European natural gas market facing uncertainty due to potential end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine
  • North American LNG supply delays causing imbalance in global market
  • Price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2526 dependent on weather, supply sources, and storage refill mandates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Ave Maria Focused Fund’s Chadd Garcia on misreading waste-focused $SES.TO as energy services

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Secure Energy Services (SES) operates in the waste management and energy services industry, focusing on recurring revenue and pipeline businesses.
  • The company has potential for growth through acquisitions, with a strong focus on tuck-in acquisitions in the metals recycling sector.
  • Despite potential risks such as safety concerns and regulatory changes, Secure Energy Services has a strong dividend yield, free cash flow yield, and growth prospects, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
  • Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 
  • As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  

OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

By Suhas Reddy

  • OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
  • Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
  • The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.

US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.
  • For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.
  • US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.

Albemarle Corporation: Will Its Volume Growth & Asset Utilization Help Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Albemarle Corporation’s Q3 2024 earnings demonstrated strong execution with volumetric growth in its Energy Storage division and year-over-year EBITDA growth in its Specialties and Ketjen segments.
  • The company’s liquidity and leverage metrics are strong, with Albemarle maintaining leverage well below covenant limits and demonstrating operating cash conversion of over 100%.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

EOG Resources Inc.: Dealing With Strategic Infrastructure and Market Volatility Risks! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • EOG Resources’ third-quarter results for 2024 reflect a strong financial and operational performance, marked by substantial free cash flow and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
  • The company generated $1.6 billion in adjusted net income and produced $1.5 billion in free cash flow.
  • Notably, EOG has redistributed $1.3 billion of this cash back to shareholders, a strategy underpinned by a 7% increase in its regular dividend and an expanded share repurchase authorization by $5 billion.

Marathon Oil Corporation: Permian Basin Capital Allocation

By Baptista Research

  • Marathon Oil Company recently reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2024, where several key insights about the company’s financial and operational achievements were shared.
  • The company has maintained a strong financial and operational performance, reinforcing its position within the Energy and Petroleum sector.
  • One of the highlights from the first quarter is Marathon Oil’s financial strategy, focused primarily on returning shareholder value.

Alamos Gold Inc.: PDA Project & Mulatos District Expansion Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alamos Gold Inc.’s third-quarter 2024 earnings presented a comprehensive review of the company’s operational and financial performance following its recent acquisition of the Magino mine from Argonaut Gold.
  • This acquisition has significantly shaped the latest results, which reflect a mixed bag of outcomes from this transitional phase.
  • The third quarter marked a record production milestone for Alamos, with 152,000 ounces of gold produced.

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Daily Brief Financials: Jb Financial Group, Alliance Witan, DigiCo REIT, Freshworks, M&A Capital Partners, Duke Capital , JDC Group AG, Pjt Partners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown
  • FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250
  • DigiCo REIT – The Positives – Hot Sector with Built in Growth
  • Freshworks Inc.: An Integration & Growth of Acquired Assets & Other Major Drivers
  • M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Coverage initiation, Full-year FY09/24 flash update
  • Duke Capital (DUKE): Taking Duke Capital to the next level
  • JDC Group – On track to reach high-end FY24 sales guidance
  • Pjt Partners Inc. (PJT) – Monday, Aug 19, 2024


KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown

By Sanghyun Park

  • Since Sep 24, 32 companies made Value-Up disclosures. After filtering, 17 remain, but KRX will keep inclusions tight. They’ll likely use PBR and ROE rankings for final selection.
  • We have 6 names—3 financials, 2 healthcare, 1 industrial. New Value-Up disclosures through Dec 6 could add more, but these 6 are the frontrunners for now.
  • KRX is likely to announce results by Dec 10-11. Start eyeing entry points 10 days prior, and if price action heats up early, consider pulling the trigger sooner.

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

By Dimitris Ioannidis


DigiCo REIT – The Positives – Hot Sector with Built in Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) aims to raise over US$1bn in its Australian IPO.
  • DigiCo REIT (DREIT) aims to be a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio and broad investment mandate across stabilised, value-add and development opportunities
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Freshworks Inc.: An Integration & Growth of Acquired Assets & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Freshworks, a provider of cloud-based software solutions, reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, showcasing strong financial performance and strategic advancements.
  • The company exceeded its own forecasts for revenue growth and profitability, highlighted by a 22% increase in revenue year-over-year to $186.6 million.
  • Freshworks also doubled its free cash flow from the previous year, reaching $40.1 million with a margin of 21%, demonstrating its operational efficiency and scalability.

M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Coverage initiation, Full-year FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY09/24 revenue was JPY19.2bn, a decline of 8.1% YoY, with operating profit at JPY6.4bn, down 14.4%.
  • FY09/24 net income attributable to owners increased 5.6% YoY to JPY4.5bn, with a 104.4% achievement rate.
  • The company targets 376 deals and 405 consultants by FY09/27, with a CAGR of 19.4% and 31.0%.

Duke Capital (DUKE): Taking Duke Capital to the next level

By Hardman & Co

  • In our April 2024 initiation, we highlighted that DUKE, by optimising the best of equity and debt, aimed to achieve equity-type returns with debt levels of risk.
  • We highlighted four pillars of returns, namely: i) term credit; ii) participating preference shares, which support DUKE’s high, covered and growing dividend yield (2025E 10.0%, 2026E 10.7%, 2027E 11.4%); iii) early exit fees; and iv) equity stakes.
  • Here, we update investors on how management will take DUKE to the next level, noting i) a £20.2m+ equity issue to fund short-term growth, and ii) the progress made towards a third-party capital model, negating the need for further raises.

JDC Group – On track to reach high-end FY24 sales guidance

By Edison Investment Research

After two quarters of >20% y-o-y revenue growth, JDC Group (JDC) has benefited from strong tailwinds in Q324 as well. Revenue growth of 36% in the quarter was partly driven by the acquisition of Top Ten, but mostly by strong Insurance, investment and banks activities. Q424 is also expected to be strong and JDC indicated that the high end of FY24 revenue guidance of €205–220m is well within reach. FY24 EBITDA guidance is in the range of €14.5–16.0m (FY23: €11.7m). After raising our estimates with the H124 results, we make no further changes. Our discounted cash flow provides a valuation of €34.0/share.


Pjt Partners Inc. (PJT) – Monday, Aug 19, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • PTJ is benefiting from an exceptionally favorable operating environment that is unlikely to persist
  • PJT’s partnership structure creates a significant tax drag on free cash flow making valuation more expensive than implied by the EBITDA multiple.
  • Even so, shares trade at well above peer multiples despite lower than expected growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Wisdom Marine Lines, S.F. Holding, Lyft , Melrose Industries , KULR Technology Group , Sodick Co Ltd, Transdigm Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact
  • SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide
  • SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated
  • Lyft Inc.: How First-Party Data is Powering a Digital Advertising Revolution! – Major Drivers
  • Melrose Industries – H224 progress in line with guidance
  • KULR Technology Group Inc.
  • Sodick (6143 JP) – Key Metrics Point to Recovery and Upside
  • TransDigm Group: An Insight Into Its Commercial Aftermarket Growth and Strategy! – Major Drivers


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 284bn (US$8.7bn).
  • We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 15.8% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.75bn.
  • An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since beginning September with a pick-up in pace over the last 2-3 weeks.

SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

By Brian Freitas

  • The S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.
  • Unlike Midea Group (300 HK), the S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.
  • With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Holding’s HKEX listing launched on Tuesday, November 19th; deal to be priced by 26th
  • SF hopes to raise about US$800 mn, less than originally anticipated in financial media
  • About one quarter of the offering will be taken up by ten cornerstone investors

Lyft Inc.: How First-Party Data is Powering a Digital Advertising Revolution! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The third quarter 2024 financial results for Lyft, Inc. provide a complex picture of the company’s current standing and future outlook.
  • On the positive side, Lyft reported gross bookings exceeding $4.1 billion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase.
  • The company also saw strong demand across its services with a 9% growth in active riders and a 6% rise in ride frequency, propelled by various strategic initiatives such as the ‘Price Lock’ feature aimed at commuters.

Melrose Industries – H224 progress in line with guidance

By Edison Investment Research

Melrose Industries’ H224 trading has been in line with management’s expectations despite the volatility in the civil aerospace market, highlighting the strength of the business, in particular in the aftermarket. As 2024 draws to a close and investors look to focus increasingly on FY25, Melrose’s valuation becomes increasingly attractive.


KULR Technology Group Inc.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • KULR Technology Group, Inc. develops and commercializes high-performance thermal management technologies for electronics, batteries, and other components across a range of applications.
  • Currently, it is focused on high performance aerospace and Department of Defense applications, such as space exploration, satellite communications, and underwater vehicles, and applying them to mass market commercial applications, such as lithium-ion battery energy storage, electric vehicles, 5G, cloud computer infrastructure, consumer and industrial devices.
  • It is also applying its zero-vibration technology to fans in commercial markets which has already resulted in a licensing agreement.

Sodick (6143 JP) – Key Metrics Point to Recovery and Upside

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Reforms transforming returns – Although the demand environment remains somewhat mixed, we believe that demand has bottomed for the key product Electronic Discharge Machines.
  • Q1-3 FY12/24 results highlighted that definitive progress is being made in terms of raising returns through structural reforms.
  • This focus on raising profitability can be seen through upselling activities and improved factory utilization.

TransDigm Group: An Insight Into Its Commercial Aftermarket Growth and Strategy! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TransDigm Group Inc., a prominent aerospace components manufacturer, recently released its Q4 2024 financial results, showcasing strong performance amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company continues to benefit from its strategic focus on producing unique proprietary products, a strategy that has enabled it to maintain strong aftermarket margins which remain a core driver of its earnings.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Consumer: WH Group, Honasa Consumer , Tencent Music, Hang Seng Index, Celsius Holdings, IBJ, Airbnb , Galaxy Gaming, Koito Manufacturing, Ginebra San Miguel and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WH Group (288 HK)’s US/Mexican Spin-Off
  • A Deeper Look into Mamaearth’s Inventory Saga: Unpacking the Red Flags and Forensic Insights
  • 2025 High Conviction: Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) – Music as Promising Future
  • Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI
  • Celsius Holdings Inc.: Expanding Distribution Partnerships For A Competitive Edge! – Major Drivers
  • IBJ (6071 JP) – Raising the Quality of Earnings
  • Airbnb Inc.: Expansion into New Markets As A Strategic Growth Enabler! – Major Drivers
  • SSI Weekly: Galaxy Gaming Acquisition and Other Portfolio Updates
  • Koito Mfgr - 2024 Update (7276 JP)
  • Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q3 2024: Solid Set of Numbers And Increasing Dividends


WH Group (288 HK)’s US/Mexican Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 14 July 2024, WH Group (288 HK) (WHG) announced it had submitted a plan to spin-off its Smithfield US and Mexican ops on the NYSE or NASDAQ
  • WHG the world’s largest pork producer, has now confirmed it will sell up to 20% of Smithfield’s shares on a fully diluted basis, in an initial public offering.
  • WHG has also proposed an assured entitlement for existing shareholders by way of a distribution in specie of existing shares of Smithfield, or a cash alternative.

A Deeper Look into Mamaearth’s Inventory Saga: Unpacking the Red Flags and Forensic Insights

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Mamaearth’s journey to the stock market has been marred by allegations of channel stuffing, inventory mismanagement, and inconsistent communication from management. 
  • The company’s struggles in Q2 FY25 have raised concerns about their financial health and transparency. 
  • The forensic analysis is a deeper look into the allegations, redflags and bigger problems that require investor’s attention

2025 High Conviction: Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) – Music as Promising Future

By Ming Lu

  • Our 2024 High Conviction, the stock of Meituan has risen by 87% in one year.
  • We believe the market ignores TME because of its flat revenue.
  • However, we expect TME will significantly benefit from its dominant position in the Chinese music market.

Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI

By John Ley

  • Vols have stabilized as market has moved away from peak short gamma levels just above the recent market highs.
  • HSI Put positions appear to have been rolled down to the 19,000 strike.
  • HSCEI saw significant put volume at the 6300 strike with ~15,000 contracts per day trading at that level.

Celsius Holdings Inc.: Expanding Distribution Partnerships For A Competitive Edge! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Celsius Holdings Inc.’s third-quarter 2024 earnings reveal a mixture of growth opportunities and challenges.
  • The energy drink company has managed to maintain robust consumer demand and retail sales growth despite a dip in total revenue compared to the previous year.
  • The company recorded a modest 7.1% increase in retail sales year-over-year for the quarter, with unit sales rising by 7.3%.

IBJ (6071 JP) – Raising the Quality of Earnings

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Positive results from core activities – Driven by sustained growth at the core matchmaking business, Q1-3 FY12/24 results were stronger than expected which was a positive surprise.
  • The company has maintained FY12/24 guidance, but has telegraphed stronger OP expectations and has announced an FY DPS of ¥8 (+33.3% YoY), indicating a more progressive shareholder returns policy.
  • With affiliate franchisee numbers on an uptrend and membership numbers continuing to rise at the Directly-Managed Lounge Business, we believe this demonstrates the company’s core business activities are growing, with improvement in the quality of earnings.

Airbnb Inc.: Expansion into New Markets As A Strategic Growth Enabler! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Airbnb, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing a mixture of positives and negatives.
  • The company experienced continued growth in Nights and Experiences Booked, with bookings reaching 123 million, and saw a 10% increase in revenue year-over-year to $3.7 billion.
  • Net income stood at $1.4 billion, translating to a notable 37% net income margin.

SSI Weekly: Galaxy Gaming Acquisition and Other Portfolio Updates

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Galaxy Gaming is being acquired by Evolution AB for $3.20/share, with a 17% spread and minimal regulatory hurdles.
  • OCI N.V. plans a $1bn capital return in H1 2025, equating to 40% of its market cap.
  • Benson Hill’s buyout spread widened to 60% due to liquidity issues and ongoing buyout negotiations nearing completion.

Koito Mfgr - 2024 Update (7276 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Orbis Japan Equity Fund recently wrote about auto supplier Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) in their second-quarter 2024 letter.
  • So, who is Koito? It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.
  • What stood out in Orbis’s second-quarter letter is that Koito plans to return JPY 350 billion to shareholders in the next five years, more than half the current market cap. Rational capital allocation is rare in Japan, so this number caught my attention.

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q3 2024: Solid Set of Numbers And Increasing Dividends

By Sameer Taneja

  • Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported a solid Q3 FY24, with revenues/profits up 15%/25% YoY, led by 5% volume growth (10% YTD growth).
  • Net cash and investments are now >15 bn pesos (21% of market capitalization). For Q4 2024, the company paid a dividend of 4 pesos/share (6.2% dividend yield). 
  • This is one of the cheapest liquor companies we know, trading at 10x FY24 PE/6.3 EV-EBITDA. It has a >33% ROCE and a great growth/dividend payment profile.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Terumo Corp, Grifols SA, Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering, JTEC Corp/Osaka, Grace Therapeutics, SIGA Technologies, BioStem Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals: Launch & Market Penetration of Olezarsen Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Strong H1 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; Product Pipeline Entails Visibility
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report
  • Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) – The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic
  • JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Indications of Improving Returns
  • GRCE: FY:25 Second Quarter Results
  • SIGA Technologies – Strong order book moving into Q424
  • BSEM: Digging Into Medicare Issue


Ionis Pharmaceuticals: Launch & Market Penetration of Olezarsen Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals recently reported their third-quarter financial results for 2024, presenting a comprehensive view of its current position in the biotechnology sector.
  • The company’s focal points include imminent product launches, ongoing clinical trials, and strategic pipeline developments—all set within the context of their financial performance and future outlook.
  • The company is on the verge of launching its first independently marketed product, Olezarsen, for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), with an anticipated FDA action next month.

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Strong H1 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; Product Pipeline Entails Visibility

By Tina Banerjee

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) reported better-than-expected H1FY25 result, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit all reached record highs for the first half. Profit margins continued to improve.
  • Revenue from C&V business grew 15% YoY to ¥306B (~60% of total revenue). More than 60% of the growth came from TIS (catheter) division, which grew 14% YoY to ¥201B.
  • Terumo has revised FY25 guidance upward, reflecting strong performance and changes in foreign exchange assumptions. Both revenue and profits are expected to reach record high in FY25.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.
  • Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) – The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.
  • Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.
  • Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time

JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Indications of Improving Returns

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Improving sales mix lift gross margins – Gross margin increased to 65.9% in Q1 FY6/25 from 52.5% the previous year, demonstrating an improvement in the sales mix at the core Optical business segment which experienced demand for high-precision products with premium pricing.
  • While operating losses remained relatively flat YoY, the company is investing in IT systems that will improve its production and sales management which we believe will improve the quality of earnings, as well as assist in new business development.
  • Overall, we believe the company performed in line with guidance, with no change regarding expectations of the earnings profile to be concentrated in H2 FY6/25.

GRCE: FY:25 Second Quarter Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Grace is a clinical-stage, biotechnology company focused on rare disease.
  • Its lead program, GTX-104, is a novel injectable formulation of nimodipine for the treatment of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).
  • Other programs include GTX-102 for Ataxia Telangiectasia & GTX-101 for postherpetic neuralgia.

SIGA Technologies – Strong order book moving into Q424

By Edison Investment Research

SIGA Technologies reported revenues of $10m in Q324, attributed primarily to deliveries under the $112.5m BARDA option, exercised in July 2024. Backed by a strong order book ($146m at end-Q324), the sales momentum has picked up pace in Q424 with another $51.2m and $8.5m of oral and IV TPOXX (IVT) delivered to the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) in October 2024. We expect further deliveries in Q424 and early 2025 under the BARDA contract as well as the $9m US Department of Defense (DoD) order received in August 2024. Q424 also marked SIGA’s first commercial foray into Africa (delivering oral TPOXX to Morocco worth c $0.8m), capped by in-licensing of a novel preclinical monoclonal antibody from Vanderbilt University to complement TPOXX in targeting orthopox viruses. We await further updates on the PEP label expansion and mpox trials but conservatively adjust our estimates to reflect results from the PALM 007 study. Our valuation adjusts to $13.93/share from $15.89/share previously.


BSEM: Digging Into Medicare Issue

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • BioStem Technologies is a leading innovator focused on harnessing the natural properties of perinatal tissue in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of allografts for regenerative therapies.
  • The company’s stock has suffered the last few days, largely, it seems, due to two of its major products not being on the just released LCD coverage list.
  • There’s more to the story, and we reiterate our recently upgraded price target.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Wisdom Marine Lines, S.F. Holding, Lyft , Melrose Industries , KULR Technology Group , Sodick Co Ltd, Transdigm Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact
  • SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide
  • SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated
  • Lyft Inc.: How First-Party Data is Powering a Digital Advertising Revolution! – Major Drivers
  • Melrose Industries – H224 progress in line with guidance
  • KULR Technology Group Inc.
  • Sodick (6143 JP) – Key Metrics Point to Recovery and Upside
  • TransDigm Group: An Insight Into Its Commercial Aftermarket Growth and Strategy! – Major Drivers


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 284bn (US$8.7bn).
  • We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 15.8% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.75bn.
  • An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since beginning September with a pick-up in pace over the last 2-3 weeks.

SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

By Brian Freitas

  • The S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.
  • Unlike Midea Group (300 HK), the S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.
  • With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Holding’s HKEX listing launched on Tuesday, November 19th; deal to be priced by 26th
  • SF hopes to raise about US$800 mn, less than originally anticipated in financial media
  • About one quarter of the offering will be taken up by ten cornerstone investors

Lyft Inc.: How First-Party Data is Powering a Digital Advertising Revolution! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The third quarter 2024 financial results for Lyft, Inc. provide a complex picture of the company’s current standing and future outlook.
  • On the positive side, Lyft reported gross bookings exceeding $4.1 billion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase.
  • The company also saw strong demand across its services with a 9% growth in active riders and a 6% rise in ride frequency, propelled by various strategic initiatives such as the ‘Price Lock’ feature aimed at commuters.

Melrose Industries – H224 progress in line with guidance

By Edison Investment Research

Melrose Industries’ H224 trading has been in line with management’s expectations despite the volatility in the civil aerospace market, highlighting the strength of the business, in particular in the aftermarket. As 2024 draws to a close and investors look to focus increasingly on FY25, Melrose’s valuation becomes increasingly attractive.


KULR Technology Group Inc.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • KULR Technology Group, Inc. develops and commercializes high-performance thermal management technologies for electronics, batteries, and other components across a range of applications.
  • Currently, it is focused on high performance aerospace and Department of Defense applications, such as space exploration, satellite communications, and underwater vehicles, and applying them to mass market commercial applications, such as lithium-ion battery energy storage, electric vehicles, 5G, cloud computer infrastructure, consumer and industrial devices.
  • It is also applying its zero-vibration technology to fans in commercial markets which has already resulted in a licensing agreement.

Sodick (6143 JP) – Key Metrics Point to Recovery and Upside

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Reforms transforming returns – Although the demand environment remains somewhat mixed, we believe that demand has bottomed for the key product Electronic Discharge Machines.
  • Q1-3 FY12/24 results highlighted that definitive progress is being made in terms of raising returns through structural reforms.
  • This focus on raising profitability can be seen through upselling activities and improved factory utilization.

TransDigm Group: An Insight Into Its Commercial Aftermarket Growth and Strategy! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TransDigm Group Inc., a prominent aerospace components manufacturer, recently released its Q4 2024 financial results, showcasing strong performance amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company continues to benefit from its strategic focus on producing unique proprietary products, a strategy that has enabled it to maintain strong aftermarket margins which remain a core driver of its earnings.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Naver and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Naver, Samsung Electronics
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Wiwynn, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Ase Industrial, Mitac
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Naver, Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD468.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD937mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Naver, Samsung Electronics.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Wiwynn, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Ase Industrial, Mitac

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 15th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Ase Industrial, Mitac, Bizlink, Wistron, Alchip Technologies, Lite-On Technology.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 15th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD999.2bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,830mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Chailease, UMC.

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Daily Brief ESG: Management Mindset of Believing that Company Growth Is Not the Main Objective Is Hindering Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Management Mindset of Believing that Company Growth Is Not the Main Objective Is Hindering Growth


Management Mindset of Believing that Company Growth Is Not the Main Objective Is Hindering Growth

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Listing criteria for TSE Growth Market will be raised to over 4 billion yen in market capitalization after 10 years of listing, but the details are left for further discussion.
  • It is necessary to provide opportunities for founders to exit and recover their capital without relying on an IPO, for example by creating a market for unlisted shares.
  • Switching to a policy of using cash for shareholder returns because of the inability to comply with TSE Growth Market listing maintenance standards is not a fundamental solution.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade
  • 7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal
  • Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional
  • Merger Arb Mondays (18 Nov) – Henlius, GAPack, Xingda, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks, Macromill
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): A Firm Offer (Finally)
  • KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One at the Cusp
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Privatization Ahead?
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices
  • Xingda (1899 HK): Go Figure As Offer Turns Unconditional


Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 15 November, KKR announced it would launch KKR Tender2 to buy the rest of FujiSoft not purchased in KKR Tender1. Their new price is ¥1 higher than Bain’s.
  • Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced (J) it supported the KKR2 Tender and rejected the Bain TOB Proposal. KKR1 shareholders are “made whole” at ¥9,451/share. Minimum is 53.22%.
  • The document, however, is a Governance Disaster – an absolute shambles, effectively gaslighting investors at every turn. And now investors can see it was problematic from the start.

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • Using data from the close on 15 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a one-way trade of TWD 57.5bn (US$1.77bn).
  • Short interest is at the highs in most forecast deletes, while the trend is mixed among the potential inclusions.

7&I (3382) – What If…  A Modest Proposal

By Travis Lundy

  • A lot of the talk around the news that Ito family scion Ito Junro had proposed to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) an MBO was about thwarting Alimentation Couche-Tard.
  • Several mentioned that this bid – seemingly uncompetitive at the moment – would make ACT back down. I discussed the bid and its repercussions here
  • Here I suggest an alternate solution which might get everyone what they want.

Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • On its first closing date on 15 November, Xingda International (1899 HK) declared the Chairman’s offer unconditional as the offeror and concert parties represented 60.76% of outstanding shares. 
  • The result was surprising. The IFA opined that the offer was not fair or reasonable, and the independent Board recommended that the shareholder not accept it. 
  • The CCASS movements suggest that the offer was declared unconditional mainly because friends and family supported the Chairman’s offer. The gross/annualised spread is 1.6%/92.6%.


Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): A Firm Offer (Finally)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Talk about cutting it fine. On the pre-conditional long stop date, the Gateway Development Alliance has now made a firm Offer for Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) at RM11/share. 
  • The consortium, led by Khazanah Nasional’s subsidiary UEM Group Bhd and EPF, together with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Global Infrastructure Partners, collectively hold 41.22%. 
  • This is a Tender Offer with a 90% acceptance threshold. “The Joint Offerors reserve the right to revise the level of the Acceptance Condition to a lower level“.

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One at the Cusp

By Brian Freitas


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Privatization Ahead?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • PAGD’s business model is problematic, leading to continuous shrinking revenue scale. As PAGD will entirely lose competitiveness in the future, the management wants to find a suitable way to “exit”.
  • Privatizing PAGD at low price and integrating it into the Ping An Group’s system is a good choice. In other words, Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividends.
  • Due to high tax, Hong Kong Stock Connect investors would prefer to sell in advance. Arbitrageurs can wait until stock price drops then make decisions based on new conversion price.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) and Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) are currently in contention to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade around 0.5x ADV in the inclusions while impact on the forecast deletes is between 0.36-2.2x ADV.
  • Short interest has decreased and is near the lows for the forecast adds while short interest has been increasing in the forecast deletions.

Xingda (1899 HK): Go Figure As Offer Turns Unconditional

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 24 September, tyre component manufacturer Xingda International (1899 HK) announced a zero-premium $1.30/share cash Offer from Liu Jinlan, chairman and executive director.
  • Liu and concert parties held 37.03%, and the Offer was conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. The IFA concluded the Offer was not fair.
  • Surprisingly, 23.73% of shares out have tendered, and the Offer is now unconditional in all respects. The Offer will remain open to acceptances until the 29th November.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Significant Reversal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Significant Reversal
  • China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs
  • Japan Morning Connection: Potential for Ibiden and Renesas to Be Seen as NVDA Plays
  • Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More


Ohayo Japan | Significant Reversal

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks plummeted on Friday, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.2%.
  • Investors face a sparse economic calendar next week, with Nvidia’s quarterly earnings taking center stage
  • Sony Honda Mobility will showcase its luxury electric vehicle, AFEELA, at CES 2025 in Las Vegas.

China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

By Osbert Tang, CFA


Japan Morning Connection: Potential for Ibiden and Renesas to Be Seen as NVDA Plays

By Andrew Jackson

  • AMAT numbers sends US SPE lower on Friday which should spill over into Japan.
  • Trump’s Energy Secretary nomination may be a short term positive for oil and gas related, longer-term questionable.
  • Both Ibiden and Renesas have potential to be rerated on their NVDA exposure, but market indifferent so far.

Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More

By William Keating

  • Silicon wafer area shipments in Q324 amounted to 3,214 million square inches (MSI), up 5.9% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY,
  • Q324 saw the combined revenues from the top four players in the segment reaching $2.5 billion, up 0.5% QoQ and up 6.5% YoY
  • Top 4 EBIT amounted to just $337 million, up 1.5% QoQ but down 38.9% YoY.

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