Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.

Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation

Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.

Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh

Positioned for Long-Term Growth: Backed by strong industry tailwinds in EVs, clean energy, and exports, Sundram Fasteners (SF IN) is strategically expanding beyond its core auto portfolio into high-potential sectors.
Near-Term Risk-Reward Balanced: With the stock trading at 33x P/E on FY26E earnings, valuations appear stretched, and near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainties may limit upside.
Proven Management & Governance: Backed by the reputable TVS Group, the company’s disciplined execution and transparent governance inspire long-term investor confidence.

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May 12

Daily Brief Japan: Imagica Robot Holdings, Nissin Corp, Daiichi Jitsugyo, Gakken Holdings, Inabata & Co, Monex Group Inc, Seria Co Ltd, Anicom Holdings, Yellow Hat Ltd, CELSYS and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Son of Chairman/55%Owner Taking Imagica (6879) Private at 10x FCF, 4+x EBITDA. CHEAP.
Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?
Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Gakken Holdings (9470 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Anicom Holdings (8715 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Yellow Hat Ltd (9882 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
CELSYS (3663 JP): Q1 FY12/25 Flash update

[Japan M&A] Son of Chairman/55%Owner Taking Imagica (6879) Private at 10x FCF, 4+x EBITDA. CHEAP.

By Travis Lundy

This deal should not come as a surprise. Bloomberg has an article out saying tycoons are taking companies private to avoid shareholder activism. It’s not just that.
The stated reasons (competitive environment requiring faster decision-making and significant restructuring) are all kinda hot garbage. This is being done at adjusted EV/EBITDA of 4x and 10x FCF.
And there are no synergies counted, and half of the Adjusted EV is net receivables+inventory equal to about 2mos of revenues. This is being done too cheaply. But…. TIJ baby…

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?

Nissin Corp (9066 JP) shares were up 10.3% based on a Bloomberg report that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO.
The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).
While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid.

Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 results: Orders JPY206.3bn (+1.3% YoY), revenue JPY221.8bn (+18.1% YoY), operating profit JPY13.1bn (+44.1% YoY).
FY03/26 forecast: Orders JPY230.0bn (+11.5% YoY), revenue JPY220.0bn (-0.8% YoY), operating profit JPY12.0bn (-8.4% YoY).
DJK’s “V2030” strategy targets JPY18.0bn operating profit by FY03/31, with ROE of 10% or higher.

Gakken Holdings (9470 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

Revenue increased by JPY5.3bn YoY, driven by Kirihara Shoten’s addition and increased study guide sales.
Operating profit declined by JPY600mn due to rising costs in Healthcare and Welfare; Educational segment saw profit growth.
Net income rose by JPY652mn, aided by absence of prior stock sale loss and step acquisition gain.

Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 saw a 9.4% YoY sales increase, driven by a weaker yen and strong Japan and Southeast Asia performance.
Operating profit rose 21.9% YoY due to higher sales and improved margins, while net income decreased slightly.
FY03/26 forecasts sales growth but profit decline, with concerns over US tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical issues.

Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Consolidated net operating revenue was JPY17.0bn, down 2.4% YoY and 6.3% QoQ, with commissions received at JPY8.2bn.
US segment net operating revenue increased 3.3% YoY and 4.8% QoQ to USD76.0mn, with brokerage commissions at USD26.4mn.
Crypto Asset segment net trading income was JPY3.2bn, down 22.7% YoY and 27.3% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at JPY3.7bn.

Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Sales reached JPY236.3bn (+5.9% YoY) with operating profit at JPY16.8bn (+11.3% YoY) and net income JPY11.2bn (+14.2% YoY).
For FY03/26, Seria forecasts sales of JPY242.9bn (+2.8% YoY) and net income of JPY10.2bn (-9.1% YoY).
The company plans to open 120 directly managed stores and close 70, totaling 2,122 stores by FY03/26 end.

Anicom Holdings (8715 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Recurring revenue increased by 12.0% YoY to JPY67.7bn, driven by underwriting, investment, and other revenue growth.
Recurring profit rose 18.8% YoY to JPY4.9bn, aided by cost control, operational efficiency, and decreased expenses.
FY03/26 forecast anticipates record-high revenue but declining profit due to one-time AXA Direct policy transfer fees.

Yellow Hat Ltd (9882 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 sales increased 5.1% YoY to JPY154.1bn, with operating profit up 6.7% YoY to JPY15.5bn.
Yellow Hat expanded sales of expendable auto parts and services, acquiring Y International Inc. for diversification.
FY03/26 projections: sales JPY170.0bn (+10.3% YoY), operating profit JPY15.9bn (+2.9% YoY), net income JPY11.4bn (+1.2% YoY).

CELSYS (3663 JP): Q1 FY12/25 Flash update

Celsys Q1 FY12/25 sales were JPY2.4bn (+19.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY759mn (+34.2% YoY).
Creator Support segment sales reached JPY2.1bn (+23.0% YoY), driven by CLIP STUDIO PAINT’s global expansion.
Creator Platform segment sales were JPY345mn (+1.5% YoY), with ongoing development of a new platform service for FY12/26.

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May 12

Daily Brief Industrials: Nissin Corp, Hanwha Aerospace, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Escorts Kubota Limited, Inabata & Co, Daiichi Jitsugyo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?
How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective
Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR
ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa
Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation
Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?

Nissin Corp (9066 JP) shares were up 10.3% based on a Bloomberg report that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO.
The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).
While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid.

How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective

By Sanghyun Park

Next day’s base price uses the 3:30pm close—NXT’s after-hours moves don’t count. That small gap can impact rights offerings, as seen in Samsung SDI’s pricing delta on April 8.
NXT after-hours volumes count toward VWAP. So in uptrends, they can impact pricing—possibly with Samsung SDI’s final reference price on May 16.
No shorting allowed after 3:30pm on NXT, leading to inefficiencies—while not yet fit for latency arb, it’s ripe for tactical day–night spread plays and re-entry timing.

Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are set to launch H Share listings.
Event-Driven developments: Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP), Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US).

ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are gearing up for an IPO launch soon.
On the placements front, there were two primary placements in Hong Kong, along with a number of lockup expiries coming up.

Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation

Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.

Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 saw a 9.4% YoY sales increase, driven by a weaker yen and strong Japan and Southeast Asia performance.
Operating profit rose 21.9% YoY due to higher sales and improved margins, while net income decreased slightly.
FY03/26 forecasts sales growth but profit decline, with concerns over US tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical issues.

Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 results: Orders JPY206.3bn (+1.3% YoY), revenue JPY221.8bn (+18.1% YoY), operating profit JPY13.1bn (+44.1% YoY).
FY03/26 forecast: Orders JPY230.0bn (+11.5% YoY), revenue JPY220.0bn (-0.8% YoY), operating profit JPY12.0bn (-8.4% YoY).
DJK’s “V2030” strategy targets JPY18.0bn operating profit by FY03/31, with ROE of 10% or higher.

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May 12

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Rio Tinto Ltd, Copper, Iron Ore and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast
Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped
Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China’s Whopping Copper Imports
Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

By Rahul Jain

5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x

Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.
Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.
Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.

Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China’s Whopping Copper Imports

By Sameer Taneja

China’s copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.
The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.
We provide updates on Lundin Mining (LUN CN )’s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals.

Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.
With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU). The company recently presented at the RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025.

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May 12

Daily Brief Industrials: Nissin Corp, Hanwha Aerospace, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Escorts Kubota Limited, Inabata & Co, Daiichi Jitsugyo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?
How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective
Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR
ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa
Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation
Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?

Nissin Corp (9066 JP) shares were up 10.3% based on a Bloomberg report that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO.
The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).
While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid.

How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective

By Sanghyun Park

Next day’s base price uses the 3:30pm close—NXT’s after-hours moves don’t count. That small gap can impact rights offerings, as seen in Samsung SDI’s pricing delta on April 8.
NXT after-hours volumes count toward VWAP. So in uptrends, they can impact pricing—possibly with Samsung SDI’s final reference price on May 16.
No shorting allowed after 3:30pm on NXT, leading to inefficiencies—while not yet fit for latency arb, it’s ripe for tactical day–night spread plays and re-entry timing.

Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are set to launch H Share listings.
Event-Driven developments: Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP), Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US).

ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are gearing up for an IPO launch soon.
On the placements front, there were two primary placements in Hong Kong, along with a number of lockup expiries coming up.

Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation

Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.

Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 saw a 9.4% YoY sales increase, driven by a weaker yen and strong Japan and Southeast Asia performance.
Operating profit rose 21.9% YoY due to higher sales and improved margins, while net income decreased slightly.
FY03/26 forecasts sales growth but profit decline, with concerns over US tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical issues.

Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 results: Orders JPY206.3bn (+1.3% YoY), revenue JPY221.8bn (+18.1% YoY), operating profit JPY13.1bn (+44.1% YoY).
FY03/26 forecast: Orders JPY230.0bn (+11.5% YoY), revenue JPY220.0bn (-0.8% YoY), operating profit JPY12.0bn (-8.4% YoY).
DJK’s “V2030” strategy targets JPY18.0bn operating profit by FY03/31, with ROE of 10% or higher.

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May 12

Daily Brief Consumer: Goldlion Holdings, BYD, Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, Pop Mart International Group L, Tam Jai International, Green Tea Group, Seria Co Ltd, Sundram Fasteners, Gakken Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon
HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: BYD (1211 HK) Could Replace China Literature (772 HK); Huge Trade
Curator’s Cut: “Bubble” Tea, Japan M&A 🍿and TSMC from Different Lenses
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook
Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): A Relatively Decent 2H FY25
Pre-IPO Green Tea Group – Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook
Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh
Gakken Holdings (9470 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.
Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: BYD (1211 HK) Could Replace China Literature (772 HK); Huge Trade

The review period for the June rebalance of the HSTECH INDEX ended on 31 March, the changes will be announced on 16 May and implemented on 6 June.
Following the launch of the God’s Eye ADAS, BYD (1211 HK) could become eligible for index inclusion after meeting the Autonomous theme and Innovation screening.
The inclusion of BYD (1211 HK) in the index could result in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index in June.

Curator’s Cut: “Bubble” Tea, Japan M&A 🍿and TSMC from Different Lenses

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

The review period for the June rebalance of the HSCEI ended on 31 March, the results will be announced on 16 May and will be implemented on 6 June.
Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) could be deleted from the index.
There are other stocks with big flows due to a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the rebalance in June.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.
Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.
We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): A Relatively Decent 2H FY25

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Tam Jai International (2217 HK)‘s net profit dropped 32.7% in FY25, but the 2H earnings have seen a recovery to an 18.2% YoY growth, vs. -55.8% in 1H.
Net cash stayed intact at HK$1.33bn, or 65.1% of its market capitalisation. Management looks cautiously optimistic in the outlook, and will push for expansion of two Japanese brands.
There has been minimal further noise from the minority shareholders. With the privatisation PER at over 60% premium to the sector average, we think most shareholders will give in.

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group – Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management’s consideration of attracting long-term funds.
If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.
However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea’s valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.

Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Sales reached JPY236.3bn (+5.9% YoY) with operating profit at JPY16.8bn (+11.3% YoY) and net income JPY11.2bn (+14.2% YoY).
For FY03/26, Seria forecasts sales of JPY242.9bn (+2.8% YoY) and net income of JPY10.2bn (-9.1% YoY).
The company plans to open 120 directly managed stores and close 70, totaling 2,122 stores by FY03/26 end.

Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh

Positioned for Long-Term Growth: Backed by strong industry tailwinds in EVs, clean energy, and exports, Sundram Fasteners (SF IN) is strategically expanding beyond its core auto portfolio into high-potential sectors.
Near-Term Risk-Reward Balanced: With the stock trading at 33x P/E on FY26E earnings, valuations appear stretched, and near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainties may limit upside.
Proven Management & Governance: Backed by the reputable TVS Group, the company’s disciplined execution and transparent governance inspire long-term investor confidence.

Gakken Holdings (9470 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

Revenue increased by JPY5.3bn YoY, driven by Kirihara Shoten’s addition and increased study guide sales.
Operating profit declined by JPY600mn due to rising costs in Healthcare and Welfare; Educational segment saw profit growth.
Net income rose by JPY652mn, aided by absence of prior stock sale loss and step acquisition gain.

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May 12

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Imagica Robot Holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Mediatek Inc, Tencent, Etoro Group, CELSYS and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Son of Chairman/55%Owner Taking Imagica (6879) Private at 10x FCF, 4+x EBITDA. CHEAP.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C
Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences
EToro (ETOR US): Delayed Inclusion to Global Index; Ineligible for US Indices
CELSYS (3663 JP): Q1 FY12/25 Flash update

[Japan M&A] Son of Chairman/55%Owner Taking Imagica (6879) Private at 10x FCF, 4+x EBITDA. CHEAP.

By Travis Lundy

This deal should not come as a surprise. Bloomberg has an article out saying tycoons are taking companies private to avoid shareholder activism. It’s not just that.
The stated reasons (competitive environment requiring faster decision-making and significant restructuring) are all kinda hot garbage. This is being done at adjusted EV/EBITDA of 4x and 10x FCF.
And there are no synergies counted, and half of the Adjusted EV is net receivables+inventory equal to about 2mos of revenues. This is being done too cheaply. But…. TIJ baby…

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR

Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 – 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.
We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?
We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China’s September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.
Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.
Our “China Twelve” stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors’ preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the “top bought” Southbound list – reaffirming our bullishness on them.

EToro (ETOR US): Delayed Inclusion to Global Index; Ineligible for US Indices

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Etoro Group (ETOR US) is ineligible for US indices due to its US foreign listing and undisclosed geographical breakdown of assets and revenues.
Etoro Group (ETOR US) is forecasted to be added to Global-F in March 2026 following the 6-month lock-up expiry which increases public voting rights and float cap above the thresholds.
Etoro Group (ETOR US) is forecasted to be added to Global-M in August 2025 as there is no voting rights requirement and a lower float cap threshold.

CELSYS (3663 JP): Q1 FY12/25 Flash update

Celsys Q1 FY12/25 sales were JPY2.4bn (+19.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY759mn (+34.2% YoY).
Creator Support segment sales reached JPY2.1bn (+23.0% YoY), driven by CLIP STUDIO PAINT’s global expansion.
Creator Platform segment sales were JPY345mn (+1.5% YoY), with ongoing development of a new platform service for FY12/26.

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May 12

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Sinarmas Land, Anicom Holdings, Avjennings Ltd, Monex Group Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (12 May) – ESR, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, Imagica, Zeekr, Sinarmas, Gold Road
Sinarmas Land (SML SP): The Family Bumps Terms After All
Anicom Holdings (8715 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
AVJennings (AVJ AU) : 11th July Vote On AVID’s Offer
Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Merger Arb Mondays (12 May) – ESR, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, Imagica, Zeekr, Sinarmas, Gold Road

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), AEON Mall (8905 JP), Dada Nexus (DADA US), SLB Development (SLB SP).

Sinarmas Land (SML SP): The Family Bumps Terms After All

By David Blennerhassett

I was wrong. In Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair, I said the Offer needed a bump, but that outcome was looking less likely.
The Widjaja family has now bumped terms to S$0.375/share, up from S$0.31/share, or a 21% increase. Terms have not been declared final.
The IFA’s estimated fair value range for Sinarmas Land (SML SP) was S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. Expect a follow-up opinion revising their conclusion to “Fair and Reasonable” from “Not Fair but Reasonable“.

Anicom Holdings (8715 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Recurring revenue increased by 12.0% YoY to JPY67.7bn, driven by underwriting, investment, and other revenue growth.
Recurring profit rose 18.8% YoY to JPY4.9bn, aided by cost control, operational efficiency, and decreased expenses.
FY03/26 forecast anticipates record-high revenue but declining profit due to one-time AXA Direct policy transfer fees.

AVJennings (AVJ AU) : 11th July Vote On AVID’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

On the 1st April, Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a widely recognised home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with AVID at A$0.655/share.
A special dividend – included in the Scheme consideration – could add A$0.072/share in franking credits (to those shareholders who can take advantage), or ~11% of the consideration. That’s chunky.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 11th July, and expected payment on or before the 14th August. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Monex Group Inc (8698 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Consolidated net operating revenue was JPY17.0bn, down 2.4% YoY and 6.3% QoQ, with commissions received at JPY8.2bn.
US segment net operating revenue increased 3.3% YoY and 4.8% QoQ to USD76.0mn, with brokerage commissions at USD26.4mn.
Crypto Asset segment net trading income was JPY3.2bn, down 22.7% YoY and 27.3% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at JPY3.7bn.

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✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 12

Daily Brief Health Care: Cipla Ltd, TransMedics Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks
2025 High Conviction Update: TransMedics, Cut Long Exposure and Move To the Sidelines

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks