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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Tung Ho Steel Enterprise, Gold, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Hornbeck Offshore Services, Crude Oil, Ball , Intl Flavors & Fragrances, Mosaic Co/The, Nabaltec AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec25: Final Ranks; Tung Ho Escapes TDIV Deletion!
  • Ep. 132 Real Conversations | Jim Rickards: Gold, Chaos and the Great Reckoning Ahead
  • Global Commodities: Metals headed for even greater heights
  • India’s Synthetic Rubber Sector Steadies Amid Import Decline
  • Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. (HOS): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Marine Services Company
  • Oil futures: Prices plunge as Ukraine to consider US-backed peace deal
  • Ball Corporation: Reinventing Its Growth Engine With Strategic Investments
  • IFF Partners With Kemira on DEB Technology — Could This Mega-Project Reinvent Its Health & Biosciences Future?
  • Mosaic Surges in Brazil: How Its Fertilizantes Unit Keeps Beating EBITDA Targets Despite Market Pressures!
  • Nabaltec — Full year guidance maintained


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec25: Final Ranks; Tung Ho Escapes TDIV Deletion!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • Today is the base date for the December 2025 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.
  • We expect four changes for T50 and three additional changes for the T100 index for the December 2025 rebal.

Ep. 132 Real Conversations | Jim Rickards: Gold, Chaos and the Great Reckoning Ahead

By Real Conversations

  • Gold prices have been steadily rising, with projections of reaching $10,000, possibly as soon as 2026.
  • The recent surge in gold prices has attracted more institutional investors and retail buyers, especially in countries like Australia and China.
  • The volatility in gold prices has also increased, with the potential for rapid gains as smaller percentage increases can lead to significant profits.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Global Commodities: Metals headed for even greater heights

By At Any Rate

  • Strong gold demand in 3Q25, totaling almost 980 tons, leading to a surge in demand inflow
  • Expectation of continued central bank buying and investor demand growth in 2026
  • Bullish outlook for gold prices, with potential risks including rate sensitivity and potential tariff uncertainties for other precious metals

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


India’s Synthetic Rubber Sector Steadies Amid Import Decline

By Vinod Nedumudy

Highlights

• Consumption outpaces domestic production growth

• Imports decline despite steady industrial demand

• Fresh probe into halobutyl rubber dumping

The first four months of the financial year illustrated an industry striving for balance — one still navigating between domestic self-sufficiency ambitions and dependence on imports for certain specialized grades. Demand from tire makers, which account for nearly two-thirds of synthetic rubber use in India, remained stable amid mixed trends in automotive production and exports. 


Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. (HOS): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Marine Services Company

By IPO Boutique

  • Hornbeck operates one of the world’s largest high-spec offshore fleets, serving diversified markets including oilfield services, military support, and emerging offshore wind.
  • Strong revenue growth and consistent profitability reflect resilient demand across deepwater energy, specialty services, and expanding non-oilfield markets.
  • IPO prospects hinge on market timing and valuation, as energy-related offerings have produced mixed results in 2025.

Oil futures: Prices plunge as Ukraine to consider US-backed peace deal

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures tumbled on Friday as ceasefire speculation around the Russia/Ukraine war gained momentum after President Zelensky agreed to work with Washington on the US-drafted proposals.
  • Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.50/b (1933 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.38/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $57.99/b against a previous close of $59/b.
  • President Zelensky said he is ready for “honest work” with the US after receiving a draft of the plan to end the war with Russia, although European officials have cautioned that the proposals are too one-sided in favour of Moscow.

Ball Corporation: Reinventing Its Growth Engine With Strategic Investments

By Baptista Research

  • Ball Corporation’s third quarter 2025 performance indicates both strengths and challenges for the company, as per their recent earnings call.
  • During this period, Ball Corporation reported a 4.2% growth in beverage can volumes and a 5.1% increase in comparable operating earnings.
  • Comparable diluted earnings per share saw a 12.1% rise, while the company returned $1.35 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

IFF Partners With Kemira on DEB Technology — Could This Mega-Project Reinvent Its Health & Biosciences Future?

By Baptista Research

  • International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) presented its third-quarter results for 2025, showcasing a steady operational performance amidst challenging market conditions.
  • The company maintained flat sales compared to the previous year, despite headwinds such as geopolitical challenges, macroeconomic uncertainty, and soft demand in certain sectors.
  • Growth was observed in the Scent and Taste segments, counterbalancing weakness in Food Ingredients and Health & Biosciences, particularly in North America.

Mosaic Surges in Brazil: How Its Fertilizantes Unit Keeps Beating EBITDA Targets Despite Market Pressures!

By Baptista Research

  • The Mosaic Company’s third-quarter 2025 results showcase a complex financial landscape characterized by significant investments, strong regional performances, and strategic asset reallocations.
  • The company reported a substantial increase in net income to $411 million compared to $122 million in the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $806 million from $448 million.
  • This improvement was primarily driven by higher prices across all segments and particularly robust performance in Mosaic Fertilizantes.

Nabaltec — Full year guidance maintained

By Edison Investment Research

Nabaltec’s numbers for the first nine months of 2025 (9M25) confirm resilient earnings in a weak demand environment. Group revenue declined 1.9% y-o-y to €155.1m, while EBIT fell 16.8% to €14.0m, with a nine-month EBIT margin of 9%. Guidance for 2025 is unchanged at up to a 2% revenue contraction and an EBIT margin of 7–9%. Although Q4 can be seasonally weak, given the nine-month results (with a Q3 EBIT margin of 10.3%) the full year guidance looks achievable in our view, and we see no reason to revisit our estimates or valuation. Nabaltec is controlling its costs as far as possible in a difficult demand environment, but it retains a conservative balance sheet and a number of growth options.


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Daily Brief Financials: iEdge Singapore Next 50 Index, Banyan Tree Holdings, Paymentus Holdings , Bitcoin, Aedas Homes SA, NS Group, Bitcoin Pro, SBI Shinsei Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Comparing the Singapore Next 50 to Its Regional Peers: An Asia Portfolio Context
  • Tourism and Real Estate Stocks Dominate Filed Transactions Last Week
  • Primer: Paymentus Holdings ( PAY US) – Nov 2025
  • Cosmo Jiang – Unpacking Digital Asset Treasuries – [Making Markets, EP.70]
  • Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb
  • NS Group (471A) IPO: The Investment Case
  • Crypto Down, but 4Q Historically Good : Strong Performance for Cryptocurrencies in 4Q23 and 4Q24
  • SBI Shinsei Bank Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison


Comparing the Singapore Next 50 to Its Regional Peers: An Asia Portfolio Context

By Jay Cameron

  • This insight compares the iEdge Singapore Next 50 Index with regional mid-cap indices, focusing on methodology, sector composition, and historical performance. 
  • Combining flagship and next-tier indices can broaden sector exposure and balance within an Asia-focused equity portfolio. 
  • A volatility-driven allocation strategy is presented, showing that dynamic mid-cap exposure can help moderate drawdowns and enhance returns during market cycles.

Tourism and Real Estate Stocks Dominate Filed Transactions Last Week

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from Nov 14 to Nov 20, with a net outflow of S$131 million.
  • United Overseas Bank led share buybacks, acquiring 997,700 shares at an average price of S$34.01, totaling S$58.2 million.
  • Wing Tai Holdings’ Cheng Wai Keung increased his interest to 62.24%, while Banyan Tree Holdings’ Goodview Properties raised its stake to 6.06%.

Primer: Paymentus Holdings ( PAY US) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Paymentus is a high-growth, cloud-based bill payment technology provider, capitalizing on the secular shift from paper to electronic transactions. Its strong revenue growth is driven by onboarding new clients and increasing transaction volumes.
  • The company’s proprietary Instant Payment Network (IPN) and omni-channel platform create a network effect, enhancing its competitive moat. Strategic partnerships with major financial institutions and technology companies are expanding its market reach.
  • While the company exhibits strong top-line momentum and improving profitability, it faces risks from customer concentration, potential margin pressure from large enterprise clients, and intense competition in the fragmented electronic payments market.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Cosmo Jiang – Unpacking Digital Asset Treasuries – [Making Markets, EP.70]

By Web3 Breakdowns

  • Cosmo Giang, partner at Pantera Capital, discusses the investment thesis behind digital asset treasury companies (DATs) and their role in the crypto ecosystem, particularly highlighting Solana as their largest position.
  • Giang compares DATs to traditional financial companies, emphasizing how they can generate yield on assets like Bitcoin and Solana, similar to how banks generate returns on deposits.
  • Giang reveals how Solana’s smart contract platform offers more sustainable yield potential compared to Bitcoin, leading to Pantera’s bullish stance on the cryptocurrency.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Neinor will complete the voluntary OPA at €21.335 with Castlelake’s 79%, then launch a mandatory €24/share offer for minorities if acceptance falls below 50%, effectively setting a regulatory floor.
  • Aedas shares jumped to €23.65 as the market prices a near-certain €24 exit. The resulting 1.5% spread offers a mid–single-digit annualized return, driven mainly by timeline rather than deal risk.
  • Next steps include CNMV approval of the voluntary OPA, acceptance verification, and automatic escalation to the mandatory €24 offer. Execution risk remains minimal; timing drift is now the main variable.

NS Group (471A) IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • NS Group (471A JP) is a Japanese property rent guarantee company. It is seeking to raise up to US$255 million. Pricing is on 1 December and listing is on 16 December.   
  • The controlling shareholder is Bain Capital, which owns 51.0% of voting rights. The offering is a pure secondary sale by Bain.   
  • The investment case rests on its unique market positioning, accelerating growth, sector-leading profitability, cash generation, and low leverage. 

Crypto Down, but 4Q Historically Good : Strong Performance for Cryptocurrencies in 4Q23 and 4Q24

By Water Tower Research

  • 4Q for the last two years has seen strong performance for cryptocurrencies. BTC was up more than 45% in 4Q23 and more than 65% in 4Q24.
  • Given the strong institutional interest in crypto after the US passed the GENIUS Actand the amount of capital going into digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, we could see a similar strong performance in 4Q25.
  • There has been significant interest in DAT companies, particularly those focusing on coins other than Bitcoin and those adding return enhancers to their models, DAT++ companies.

SBI Shinsei Bank Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing.
  • SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
  • We have looked at past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison

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Daily Brief Health Care: Monash IVF, UltraGreen.AI, Becton Dickinson and Co, Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd, Masimo Corp, Ainos , Oramed Pharmaceuticals , Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdi, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis’ Offer
  • UltraGreen.ai IPO: High Growth and High Margins, Market Leader
  • New BD Looks Cheap But I’m Not Ready to Buy (Yet)
  • Narayana Hrudayalaya: A Quarter of Record Performance and Strategic Expansion
  • Masimo Corporation Expands Beyond Pulse Oximetry
  • WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap: AI Nose’s Continuing Momentum in 2025 and What to Expect in 2026
  • ORMP: Advancing Clinical Activities
  • RVPH: Brilaroxazine Poster Presentations
  • Madrigal Pharma: Inside the MAESTRO-NASH Breakthrough- How Weight Loss Supercharges Antifibrotic Effects!
  • CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 9M25 Remain Subdued on Finished Drugs; Key Pivotal Data Read Outs Awaited


Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Monash IVF (MVF AU), a fertility provider, has announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) & Genesis Capital.
  • The indicative terms are a ~31% premium to last close. And ~7.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Chairman Richard Davis declared terms “opportunistic in timing and materially undervalues the company“. 
  • Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF.  MVF’s share price has cratered this year after a woman was mistakenly implanted with the wrong embryo. The CEO subsequently stepped down. 

UltraGreen.ai IPO: High Growth and High Margins, Market Leader

By Hong Jie Seow

  • UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Singapore IPO.
  • UltraGreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

New BD Looks Cheap But I’m Not Ready to Buy (Yet)

By Richard Howe

  • In Q1 2026, BDX will merge its Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions segment to Waters (WAT). BDX will receive $4BN in cash and 0.14 WAT shares per BDX share, leaving its shareholders with roughly 39 percent of the combined company.

  • The remaining business, referred to as New BD, will be a focused med-tech company with ~$18BN in revenue across Medical Essentials, Connected Care, BioPharma Systems, and Interventional. More than 90 percent of revenue will be recurring, and management expects high single-digit earnings growth.

  • New BD’s valuation looks appealing. Based on where BDX and WAT currently trade, New BD implies a P/E of roughly 11x earnings. I believe the business deserves at least a 13x multiple, which would equate to about 12% upside. That said, I’m not ready to buy yet.


Narayana Hrudayalaya: A Quarter of Record Performance and Strategic Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • NARH delivered its best-ever quarter in Q2FY26, with 20.3% YoY revenue growth, 30.3% YoY EBITDA growth and margin expansion across India and Cayman.
  • Margins improved even with limited capacity, showing stronger earnings quality. Cayman maintains over 40% margins, and India is preparing for a major INR 3,000 crore expansion phase.
  • With India easing capacity limits, Cayman scaling, and the UK Practice Plus acquisition expanding global reach, NARH is evolving into a stronger multi-country healthcare platform with long-term growth potential.

Masimo Corporation Expands Beyond Pulse Oximetry

By Baptista Research

  • Masimo Corporation, a global medical technology company, reported strong results in its third quarter of 2025.
  • The company experienced an 8% increase in revenue, driven by sustained demand for its innovative healthcare technologies.
  • The company also delivered a 450 basis point expansion in operating margins and a 38% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share, signaling robust operational efficiency and revenue growth.

WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap: AI Nose’s Continuing Momentum in 2025 and What to Expect in 2026

By Water Tower Research

  • Key takeaways from 3Q25 earnings release. Lu highlighted Ainos’ strong revenue momentum, up more than 4x Y/Y, driven almost entirely by the deployment of AI Nose in senior care programs.
  • Lu noted that the reported revenue has yet to include any of the $2.1-million, three-year AI Nose subscription order from a semiconductor customer, signaling additional upside in the SmellTech platform’s revenue, the turnaround in gross margin to 82% YTD from negative last year, and Ainos’ cost management with cash operating expenses reduced by 15% YTD versus the previous year.
  • Lu also highlighted the company’s enhanced visibility through major tech exhibitions resulting in multiple leads, inclusion in a leading tech consultant’s annual tech report, and a GICS code change for the company to technology.

ORMP: Advancing Clinical Activities

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • ORMP is leveraging its strong balance sheet to invest in early stage companies, primarily focusing on the medical & biopharma space.
  • ORMP has substantial liquidity as it both advances its oral drug delivery platform and pursues strategic opportunities, including strategic investments.
  • The company received ~$27m on its Scilex investment in 3Q25, with the principal on the Scilex investment now fully repaid.

RVPH: Brilaroxazine Poster Presentations

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
  • The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
  • Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine completed its Phase III RECOVER trial & may pursue future studies.

Madrigal Pharma: Inside the MAESTRO-NASH Breakthrough- How Weight Loss Supercharges Antifibrotic Effects!

By Baptista Research

  • Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, a company focused on the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), shared significant progress during its third-quarter 2025 results.
  • The primary highlight was the robust performance of its lead product Rezdiffra, which is garnering noteworthy sales traction.
  • Rezdiffra has quickly climbed the ladder in the specialty pharmaceutical market with annualized revenues surpassing $1 billion, achieved in just six quarters post-launch.

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 9M25 Remain Subdued on Finished Drugs; Key Pivotal Data Read Outs Awaited

By Tina Banerjee

  • CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) 9M25 revenue dropped 12% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.
  • Pressure on revenue will continue to be felt. Newly launched products, pipeline strength and out licensing opportunities would help ward off the effects of lower revenues from finished drugs.
  • CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices. Pivotal data read outs awaited.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Mobile, Gabia Inc, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR, Klook, Softbank Group, Global Payments, Gartner Inc, Meitu Inc, Smec Co Ltd, Lumentum Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: Final Expectations: Many Changes to Rankings; Final Expectations
  • A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back in Extreme Range, UMC Discount
  • Klook Travel Technology (KLK): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Hong Kong Based Travel Platform
  • SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Extremely Oversold After -11% Plunge
  • Global Payments Dumps Issuer Solutions — Could This Game-Changing Divestiture Unlock Massive Cash Flow?
  • Gartner Inc: Setting the Stage for Breakthrough Revenue Growth With Smart Expansion!
  • Meitu Inc (1357 HK): AI a Threat? Not Really – Long-Term Compounder Driven by Dual Growth Engines
  • Primer: Smec Co Ltd (099440 KS) – Nov 2025
  • Lumentum Is Building A 2026 Technology Supercycle — Could CW


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: Final Expectations: Many Changes to Rankings; Final Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
  • Today is the base date for the final ranks and we see four ADDs and four DELs for the December 2025 rebal.
  • We estimate one-way flow to be around US$2.2bn with many flow names having multiple days of volume to trade.

A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 24 November, it was announced that Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS). 
  • Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than current price). Tender offer amount is 44.7 billion won. 
  • If Align Partners successfully completes this tender offer, its stake would rise to 19.03%. Plus, the combined stakes of Align Partners and Miri Capital would be 42.99%. 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back in Extreme Range, UMC Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +25.8% Premium; Rebounded to High End of Range, Good Level to Open a Short of the ADR Spread
  • UMC: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Open a Short of the ADR Spread
  • ASE: +3.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short

Klook Travel Technology (KLK): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Hong Kong Based Travel Platform

By IPO Boutique

  • Klook leads APAC’s fast-growing travel-experiences market with mobile-first, AI-driven personalization and deep merchant integration across 310,000 offerings in 4,200 destinations.
  • Rapid GTV and profit-margin improvement highlight growing scale, strengthened monetization, and rising APAC demand in an under-digitized, fragmented global experiences sector.
  • Despite strong positioning, IPO prospects face scrutiny given sector volatility and recent peer underperformance, warranting cautious investor evaluation ahead of 2025 pricing.

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Extremely Oversold After -11% Plunge

By Nico Rosti

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) crashed nearly -11% between Thursday and Friday close, reaching deeply oversold extremes. 
  • Softbank Group has declined for three consecutive weeks, posting a cumulative -37% correction over this period.
  • Softbank Group‘s entry into the Outliers zone suggests an extreme oversold condition—potentially creating a tactical long setup for risk-tolerant traders.

Global Payments Dumps Issuer Solutions — Could This Game-Changing Divestiture Unlock Massive Cash Flow?

By Baptista Research

  • Global Payments Inc. delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, showcasing robust operational results and strategic initiatives that position the company for future growth.
  • The company reported 6% constant currency adjusted net revenue growth, excluding dispositions, alongside 110 basis points of margin expansion and 11% constant currency adjusted EPS growth compared to the prior year.
  • This performance was bolstered by strong execution across various business units, notably Merchant Solutions and Issuer Solutions.

Gartner Inc: Setting the Stage for Breakthrough Revenue Growth With Smart Expansion!

By Baptista Research

  • Gartner’s third-quarter 2025 financial results surpassed expectations amidst a dynamic macroeconomic environment.
  • The company navigated challenges like changes in the federal government and evolving tariff policies through operational adaptations that contributed to increased client retention and improved contract renewal rates.
  • Gartner’s client engagement indicators have shown positive trends, signaling potential future growth.

Meitu Inc (1357 HK): AI a Threat? Not Really – Long-Term Compounder Driven by Dual Growth Engines

By Raj S, CA, CFA

  • Meitu’s business model is not threatened by new AI image generation models. Long-term positioning remains intact. Last-mile workflows, a seventeen-year aesthetic dataset, and stable founder-led execution sustainable clear Moats.
  • Overseas markets offer materially higher pay-ratios and ARPU. Productivity and e-commerce tools drive the mix shift toward high-margin growth. Both support multi-year revenue compounding independent of AI capex cycles.
  • Recent Correction due to AI substitution fears drove the multiple to ~27x, placing PEG below 1x on 30% CAGR. Long-term buy with 100% upside and potential for strong re-rating.

Primer: Smec Co Ltd (099440 KS) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Smec Co Ltd is a South Korean company with dual exposure to the cyclical machine tool industry and the evolving telecommunications sector. Its machinery division, rooted in Samsung Heavy Industries, produces CNC lathes, machining centers, and robotic automation solutions. The ICT division provides various gateway solutions.
  • The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the growth in factory automation and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), which require advanced manufacturing equipment. Recent corporate actions, including a significant stake acquisition by SNT Holdings with the stated purpose of influencing management, could signal a strategic shift and a more aggressive approach to enhancing corporate value.
  • Despite a strong growth track record in revenue and net income over the past several years, the company faces intense competition from larger domestic players and is susceptible to the capital expenditure cycles of its key end-markets. The lack of a consistent dividend payment may be a deterrent for income-focused investors.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Lumentum Is Building A 2026 Technology Supercycle — Could CW

By Baptista Research

  • Lumentum Holdings recently reported a noteworthy increase in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reaching $533.8 million, a 58% year-over-year rise.
  • This marks the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history.
  • The growth was propelled by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, specifically from laser chips and optical transceivers used in data centers and network interconnects.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Pan Pacific International Holdings, LOTTE Corporation, Alibaba, Fast Retailing, Oriental Land, Chagee Holdings, Banyan Tree Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, ADT , Comcast Corp Class A and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind
  • Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal
  • ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior
  • Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our “Asia 50”.
  • A Pair Trade Basket Of Korean Consumer/Leisure Stocks (Long) And Japanese Names (Short)
  • Chagee Holdings (CHA) Six-Month Summary: Stark Warning on Volatility, China-Based IPO Risk
  • Tourism and Real Estate Stocks Dominate Filed Transactions Last Week
  • The Game Has Changed Since the Era of Cross-Shareholdings
  • ADT Rises as a Smart-Security Juggernaut With Powerful Tech Upgrades & Market-Shifting Strategy!
  • Weekly Update (MEDXF, MAGN, LEN/MRP, MODG)


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. 
  • As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
  • That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.

Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal

By Sanghyun Park

  • The proposed bill fully closes the treasury-share loopholes, bans all exchangeable/pledge uses, blocks M&A allocations, and imposes strict cancellation deadlines—1 year for new buys, 6 months for existing.
  • The amendment tightens disposal rules: no cancellation means pro-rata sales to existing shareholders only, shutting down selective deals and closing the wide-open disposal gap under current law.
  • The proposal is far tougher than expected, likely to become the final version, and should drive a near-term mandatory-cancel narrative and notable price action in governance-sensitive holding-co names.

ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

  • Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.
  • Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.
  • Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.

Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our “Asia 50”.

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness. 
  • Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade – a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.
  • Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.

A Pair Trade Basket Of Korean Consumer/Leisure Stocks (Long) And Japanese Names (Short)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade involving a basket of Korean consumer stocks (long) and  a basket of Japanese consumer stocks (short) over the next 3-6 months.
  • The 10 Korean names (long basket) include Samyang Food, APR, Amorepacific Corp, Korean Air, CJ Corp, Classys, Nongshim, Shinsegae, Hotel Shilla, and Lotte Tour Development. 
  • The 10 Japanese names (short basket) include Fast Retailing, Oriental Land, Kao Corp, Seibu Holdings, ANA Holdings, Shiseido, J.Front Retailing, Kose Corp, Pola Orbis Holdings, and Kyoritsu Maintenance. 

Chagee Holdings (CHA) Six-Month Summary: Stark Warning on Volatility, China-Based IPO Risk

By IPO Boutique

  • Chagee’s IPO surged early but collapsed, falling nearly 70% from its debut high amid intense market and China-based issuer volatility.
  • Weak U.S. sponsorship and a sales miss triggered sustained selling pressure, pushing CHA far below its $28 issue price.
  • The deal highlights 2025’s unforgiving IPO environment, where consumer and China-linked listings face sharp downside risk when momentum fades.

Tourism and Real Estate Stocks Dominate Filed Transactions Last Week

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from Nov 14 to Nov 20, with a net outflow of S$131 million.
  • United Overseas Bank led share buybacks, acquiring 997,700 shares at an average price of S$34.01, totaling S$58.2 million.
  • Wing Tai Holdings’ Cheng Wai Keung increased his interest to 62.24%, while Banyan Tree Holdings’ Goodview Properties raised its stake to 6.06%.

The Game Has Changed Since the Era of Cross-Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Share buybacks peak every year in June when AGMs are held, after which the “Quiet Period” begins. Toward the fiscal year-end, buybacks are expected as a means to resolve cross-shareholdings.
  • Given that the capital profitability of all TSE-listed companies hasn’t shown improvement, investors must continue to call for reducing excess cash reserves through dissolution of cross-shareholdings and the share buybacks.
  • Shareholders entrust management with the responsibility to maximize shareholder interest, which includes shareholder returns and corporate value growth. It’s natural for shareholders to demand that management fulfill this fiduciary duty.

ADT Rises as a Smart-Security Juggernaut With Powerful Tech Upgrades & Market-Shifting Strategy!

By Baptista Research

  • ADT’s third-quarter 2025 financial performance indicates a steady trajectory with both positive and negative elements impacting its outlook.
  • The company’s financial highlights reveal a 4% increase in total revenue to $1.3 billion and a 3% growth in adjusted EBITDA to $676 million.
  • Additionally, the adjusted earnings per diluted share rose by 15% year-over-year to $0.23, reflecting robust cash flow generation amounting to $709 million year-to-date.

Weekly Update (MEDXF, MAGN, LEN/MRP, MODG)

By Richard Howe

  • Comcast (CMCSA) announced in late 2024 that it would spin off a bundle of its traditional U.S. cable networks and related digital properties into a new independent company, now named Versant Media Group (VSNT).
  • Versant will host an analyst day on Thursday, December 4th and the spin-off is expected to take place in early 2026.
  • The move is driven by the secular decline of linear TV and the “transition of our video businesses”, as Comcast’s President Michael Cavanagh described.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): Frontken and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): Frontken, Eco World Develop, Astro Malaysia
  • HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 21st): Alibaba, Xiaomi, Xpeng, CCB, SMIC, China Shenhua Energy
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 21st): Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&M Engineering, China Coal Energy, CATL
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Minor International
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 21st): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, ASE Industrial
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): King Yuan Electronics, MediaTek, Asustek Computer
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 21st): SK Hynix, Doosan Enerbility, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): Frontken, Eco World Develop, Astro Malaysia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated short interest is USD450m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Frontken, Eco World Develop, Astro Malaysia, Genting Malaysia, Telekom Malaysia.

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 21st): Alibaba, Xiaomi, Xpeng, CCB, SMIC, China Shenhua Energy

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 21st.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Xpeng, CCB, SMIC, China Shenhua Energy.

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 21st): Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&M Engineering, China Coal Energy, CATL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 63.5% as of Nov 21st.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 2.5ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, materials, financials and offset by health care.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&M Engineering, China Coal Energy, CATL, Sinopec.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Minor International

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 21st. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Minor International, Advanced Info Service, CP AXTRA NVDR, Minor International, Advanced Info Service, Gulf Energy Development, Cp Axtra Nvdr.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 21st): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, ASE Industrial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated holding was USD1,288.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD4,241mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, ASE Industrial, Alchip Technologies, Ase Industrial, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Alchip Technologies.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): King Yuan Electronics, MediaTek, Asustek Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated short interest was USD28.0bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in King Yuan Electronics, MediaTek, Asustek Computer, Nan Ya Plastics, Zhen Ding Technology, King Yuan Electronics, MediaTek, Asustek Computer, Nan Ya Plastics, Zhen Ding Technology.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 14th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in Xpeng (9868 HK), TraHK HSI ETF (2800 HK).

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 21st): SK Hynix, Doosan Enerbility, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated holding was USD776.5bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,001mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Doosan Enerbility, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, KB Financial, Samsung Elec (PREF).

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SG RE Developers: The Physical Market Recovery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SG RE Developers: The Physical Market Recovery, Improved Capital Recycling, & Valuation Dislocation
  • Ohayo Japan | Rate Cuts Back on the Table


SG RE Developers: The Physical Market Recovery, Improved Capital Recycling, & Valuation Dislocation

By Jacob Cheng

  • We think Singapore developers is at a sweet spot on the back of market recovery, stronger capital management and attractive valuation
  • Residential and office market are seeing solid recovery, on the back of steep rate decline.  Accelerated M&As and buyback programs will further unlock value to shareholders
  • Sector is trading at 0.64x PB and 55% discount to RNAV, assuming mean version, this implies 72% and 60% upside to historical mean of 1.1x and 28% respectively

Ohayo Japan | Rate Cuts Back on the Table

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks, including rate-sensitive names like Home Depot and D.R. Horton, rose Friday, driven by a Fed official’s comments signalling a potential rate cut.
  • Japan’s Parliament approved a JPY 21.3 trillion stimulus package, the largest since the pandemic, but the resulting JPY 17.7 trillion supplementary budget raises fiscal sustainability concerns.
  • Japanese markets closed for Labour Thanksgiving Day. US closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday

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Daily Brief Australia: Monash IVF, Qube Holdings, Webjet Group, BHP Group Ltd, Fenix Resources , Technology One and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
  • Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
  • Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal
  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Nov)
  • Iron Ore At 104 USD/Ton: Where To Now With Simandou Online? Still Like Fenix, Others Fairly Valued
  • Technology One Ltd – Outlook Intact Post Tech1’s FY25 Punishment


Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
  • On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
  • It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light. 

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
  • That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
  • Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal

By Arun George

  • On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
  • BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.     
  • Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids. 

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Nov)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Iron Ore At 104 USD/Ton: Where To Now With Simandou Online? Still Like Fenix, Others Fairly Valued

By Sameer Taneja

  • Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as Rio Tinto (RIO US) commenced shipments from its Simandou project. 
  • Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.
  • We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years. 

Technology One Ltd – Outlook Intact Post Tech1’s FY25 Punishment

By FNArena

  • Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations as as the global technology sector is de-rated.
  • -TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets

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Daily Brief ECM: Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM
  • Pre-IPO UltraGreen.ai – Thoughts on the Business, the Concerns and the Valuation
  • ECM Weekly (24 November 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Hongqiao, WT Micro, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Ultragreen
  • Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down


Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM

By Arun George


Pre-IPO UltraGreen.ai – Thoughts on the Business, the Concerns and the Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • UltraGreen.ai’s IPO valuation of US$1.6 billion is 6x the total 2030 market size for FGS systems. Such valuation is not based on current financial performance but on future growth expectations.
  • For UltraGreen.ai to justify its valuation, it would need to capture a dominant/growing share of this expanding market. This creates a high risk of valuation correction if growth is slower-than-expected.
  • The entire AI sector has been full of bubble.A market-wide correction could impact UltraGreen.ai’s valuation regardless of its individual performance.US$1.3bn is a comfortable valuation for us to invest in UltraGreen.ai.

ECM Weekly (24 November 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Hongqiao, WT Micro, SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Ultragreen

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, most of the listings over the past week ended up doing well, irrespective of overall demand.
  • On the placements front, there was a lockup release for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK), along with a number of other placements.

Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) raised around US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought
  • Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
  • Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
  • Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation
  • Merger Arb Mondays (24 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, ENN, Jinke, Shengmu, AUB, Digital Hldgs, Pacific Ind
  • A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025):  Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?
  • Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal
  • Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought

By Travis Lundy

  • HK$100bn a day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity with US$600mm+ of net buying on average. Net flows continue to be impressive. SOEs/Energy/Financials dominate.
  • Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could up the pace of things.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
  • On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
  • It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light. 

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
  • That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
  • Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

By Pranav Rao

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
  • In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 21 Nov 2025):  Hs Sharply Underperform As. Year-End Unwinding?

By Travis Lundy

  • Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.
  • Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal

By Arun George

  • On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
  • BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.     
  • Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids. 

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
  • Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
  • At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.

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