Smartkarma Daily Briefs

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) (CKH) is trading “cheap” as Panama’s Supreme Court agrees to consider a request to nullify CKH’s canal concessions.
Preceding my comments on CKH, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) (coming up cheap on my monitor), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

CVC Bump Higher (¥1,275) Than Their Final Price (¥1,250), Get GMO to Roll In Their 12.1%.

By Travis Lundy

Today, the last day of the ¥1,250 “Final Price” CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), CVC has bumped price to ¥1,275 and extended another two weeks.
In the process, they got agreement from GMO to tender their 12.1% and GMO gets to reinvest into an 18-19% position in the Bidco.
Investors are now competing against “activists” who aren’t in public markets. 20.6% of the register don’t like the ¥1,250-1,275 price either. But they aren’t selling. They’re re-buying there. You’re not.

Toyo Seikan (5901) – Big New Buyback Shows The Way To a Breakout of 20yr Range

By Travis Lundy

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) started down the “good governance path” a couple of years ago. The stock ran up. Then it drifted back lower.
They had promised a decent payout ratio, cross-holding sales, and “buybacks conducted in an agile manner.”
On Friday 28 Feb, the company announced a large buyback and future share cancellation.

Kum Yang Gets Designated as an Administration Stock and To Be Deleted from KOSPI 200 Index

By Douglas Kim

On 4 March, Korea Exchange announced that it will designate Kum Yang (001570 KS) as an administration stock, resulting in a deletion from KOSPI 200 index.
These increased penalty points and fine are mainly from the company inflating the expected performance of a Mongolian mine which the company had plans to acquire shares.
We continue to remain negative on Kum Yang. As a result of designation as an administration stock and deletion from KOSPI 200, investors will likely push down this stock further.

Best Ideas of 2025

By Richard Howe

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.
We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.
The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.

Sapporo’s 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism’s 300% Gains

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.
We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,275 Despite Declaring the Previous Offer Final

By Arun George

Despite declaring the previous JPY1,250 offer final, CVC has bumped its Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) offer by 2.0% to JPY1,275.
CVC has secured an irrevocable from GMO. The total irrevocable represents a 23.67% ownership ratio. Despite the bump and GMO irrevocable, success still hangs in the balance.
Securing TriVista’s support remains elusive, and CVC could try to lower the minimum tendering condition. The downside is low, as the backend will have support on a deal break.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Macro: [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries
Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook
[Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds
Overweight Europe and Japan Equities
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand
HEM: Pausing Policy Easing
Germany: Merz Call for ‘independence from America’ Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries

WTI futures fell by 0.9% for the week ending 28/Feb, marking its sixth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and demand concerns.
WTI fell 3.8% in February, its largest monthly drop since September 2024, as economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and bearish economic indicators pressured prices.
WTI OI PCR rose to 0.98 on 28/Feb from 0.95 on 21/Feb. Call OI increased by 7.4% WoW, while put OI rose by 10.5%.

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

By Vinod Nedumudy

Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023
Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024
North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook

For the week ending 28/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of milder weather forecasts and expectations of weakening demand.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 1.00 on 28/Feb from 1.04 on 21/Feb. Call OI fell by 9.5% WoW, while put OI decreased by 13.3%.
Put OI was notable at the 2, 2.5, and 3 strikes, while call OI was concentrated at 4, 5, and 6.

[Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds

Gold miners’ revenue grew 4% QoQ in Q1 2025, the highest in 15+ years, driven by rising gold prices and demand.
Gold markets face volatility with rising COMEX inventories and widening futures-spot spreads, but signs of stabilization are emerging.
GLD ETF is bearish, breaking key support, while options data show bullish sentiment with strong call interest above $3000.

Overweight Europe and Japan Equities

By Sharmila Whelan

On European equities be discerning. While there are some green shoots the European economy is fragile. Value and quality stocks are recommended.
Sector bias is towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence before moving into consumer discretionary and industrials later in the year. .
Japan – overweight equites – industrials, banks and consumer discretions – unhedged and underweight government bonds.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.
Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.
China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.

HEM: Pausing Policy Easing

By Phil Rush

Central banks are advised to slow, pause, or stop reducing rates due to rising inflation and labour costs.
Inflation is unexpectedly increasing, and labour costs are exceeding target-consistent levels.
Monetary policy is almost neutral according to activity trends, but rate hikes in 2026 could counteract unnecessary easing.

Germany: Merz Call for ‘independence from America’ Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

By Prasenjit K. Basu

Conservative (CDU/CSU) chancellor-elect Merz should be able to form a stable coalition with SPD, but his “independence from America” requires massive constitutional amendments by 25Mar’25 allowing huge defense/infrastructure spending boosts.
This is a self-goal: the time for independence from America was 3 years ago, when instead Germany followed Biden’s command to self-harm itself with a ban on Russian energy imports.
If Germany successfully leads an EU defense/infrastructure spending boom, Trump would still achieve his goal. But Germany would have missed the easier route to recovery via liberalized Russian energy imports.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Australia: Cash Converters Intl, Iron Ore, Verbrec and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Cash Converters International – Delivering strongly on transition
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand
Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind

Cash Converters International – Delivering strongly on transition

Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
CCV has released a strong H1 25 result, delivering operating EBITDA growth of 12% over the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $36.5m (directly in-line with the RaaS forecast of $36.5m but with some changes in mix) and operating NPAT growth of 24% to $12.2m (a strong 8.9% beat over the RaaS forecast of $11.1m driven largely by reduced interest expense on lower-than-forecast debt balance and mix change).
The result clearly illustrates the impact of the changed strategy of the business with the loan book transitioning away from legacy products and into medium-sized loans and the new line-of-credit (LoC) product.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.
Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.
China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.

Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind

Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, infrastructure services and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
The company has released its H1 FY25 results delivering a profitable outcome for the third consecutive period, albeit below RaaS forecasts predominantly due to macro headwinds resulting in lower-than-forecast revenue on the back of project delays.
Management cited that client feedback suggests “inflationary pressures, uncertainty prior to election results (both international and domestic) and shortage of qualified engineering resources caused deferrals of several notable prospective project opportunities that were expected to commence in H1 FY2025”.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Kum Yang , Hanwha Systems Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Kumyang (001570 KS)’s Designation Opens Up an Index Spot
Kum Yang Gets Designated as an Administration Stock and To Be Deleted from KOSPI 200 Index
Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares
Kospi Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Decline Accelerates Through 350

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

By Sanghyun Park

This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Kumyang (001570 KS)’s Designation Opens Up an Index Spot

Kum Yang (001570 KS)‘s designation as an Administrative Issue should result in the deletion of the stock from the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) later this week.
Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) could be added to the index as an ad hoc replacement. The stock was in line to be added to the index at the June rebalance.
Miwon Specialty Chemical (268280 KS) ranked higher than Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) at the December rebalance but appears to fail the liquidity screen.

Kum Yang Gets Designated as an Administration Stock and To Be Deleted from KOSPI 200 Index

By Douglas Kim

On 4 March, Korea Exchange announced that it will designate Kum Yang (001570 KS) as an administration stock, resulting in a deletion from KOSPI 200 index.
These increased penalty points and fine are mainly from the company inflating the expected performance of a Mongolian mine which the company had plans to acquire shares.
We continue to remain negative on Kum Yang. As a result of designation as an administration stock and deletion from KOSPI 200, investors will likely push down this stock further.

Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares

By Douglas Kim

In the past week, Hanwha Systems announced that it plans to expand third party allocation capital increase limit from 20% to 30% of issued shares in its articles of incorporation.
This plan to significantly increase the amount of capital raise limit sets the stage for a major capital increase by Hanwha Systems in 2025, in our view.
Unlike in 2021 when we were bullish on Hanwha Systems post a large-scale capital raise, we are more cautious on the company’s potential new large scale capital raise this year.

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Decline Accelerates Through 350

By John Ley

Kospi records one of its five largest declines of the past year on Friday.
Volatility responded sharply to the accelerating selloff, closely tracking the market’s downward momentum.
With the sharp decline and surge in implied volatility, hedging considerations are explored.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Thailand: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

By Vinod Nedumudy

Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023
Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024
North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast

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Mar 05

Most Read: BYD, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Seven & I Holdings, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Gemvax & Kael, Alibaba Group Holding , Oneconnect Financial Technology, CK Hutchison Holdings, Kum Yang and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More
BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Continuing to Power Up
Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Shares Under Pressure as Rumours Swirl
Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Moves Lead to Changes in Forecast
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO
StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics
KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Kumyang (001570 KS)’s Designation Opens Up an Index Spot

7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More

By Travis Lundy

The MBO is off. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn’t surprising.
7&i says they “continue to engage constructively with ACT and alternate proposals but news articles suggest that almost 6mos after proposing an NDA, ACT still haven’t had access to financials.
The shares are off hard today to a level below where ACT’s first bid was considered “not even worth discussing”. There will be questions at the AGM and before.

BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Continuing to Power Up

Overnight, BYD (1211 HK) has announced a placement of 118m shares at a price range of HK$333-345/share that could raise up to HK$40.7bn (US$5.2bn).
The Pink Sheets listing for BYD (BYDDY.PK) closed at US$87.1/share and traded US$155m for the day. That close implies an open of HK$338.7/share for BYD, middle of the placement range.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers later this week while buying from Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index trackers will come in April.

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

By Sanghyun Park

This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Shares Under Pressure as Rumours Swirl

By Arun George

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) denied a Yomiuri article that the Board has decided not to accept an Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) bid in favour of the restructuring plan.
Despite the Board’s assertions that it is still having constructive discussions with Couche-Tard, its actions suggest otherwise.
Couche-Tard remains interested but faces increasing roadblocks. The valuation is undemanding but the news flow is unlikely to support a rerating in the near-term.

Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US

By Michael Allen

Activist investors, confusing market price with intrinsic value, have shot themselves in the foot by offering terrible advice to Keisei Railway’s management.
When Keisei followed advice from the activist, selling just 1% of the shares of Oriental Land, Keisei’s share price collapsed, proving market price has nothing to do with intrinsic value.
Keisei’s revenue growth and return on investment are stronger than most of its peers, and the crash in its stock price caused by activists might create an opportunity for others.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Moves Lead to Changes in Forecast

With the averaging period for the April rebalance commencing today, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.65-1x ADV to buy in the adds and between 0.5-1.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.
The big rally has taken Gemvax & Kael into inclusion zone while underperformance leads to ISC Co and Techwing dropping out of inclusion zone.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The gross round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$41.1bn (US$5.3bn). The net round-trip trade is HK$37.3bn (US$4.8bn).
Meituan , JD.com, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, ICBC, BeiGene, Kuaishou Technology and China Construction Bank are the largest buys. Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSBC, ZhongAn Online and Tencent are the largest sells.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO

Dual-Listed OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK/OCFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/ digital insurance play, has announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect’s controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
Ping An is offering, by way of a Scheme, HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price is final.
What now? Back in OneConnect’s boards’ court whether to engage or not. Which they should. No competing Offer will emerge.

StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) (CKH) is trading “cheap” as Panama’s Supreme Court agrees to consider a request to nullify CKH’s canal concessions.
Preceding my comments on CKH, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) (coming up cheap on my monitor), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Kumyang (001570 KS)’s Designation Opens Up an Index Spot

Kum Yang (001570 KS)‘s designation as an Administrative Issue should result in the deletion of the stock from the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) later this week.
Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) could be added to the index as an ad hoc replacement. The stock was in line to be added to the index at the June rebalance.
Miwon Specialty Chemical (268280 KS) ranked higher than Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) at the December rebalance but appears to fail the liquidity screen.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, OKP Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses
10 in 10 with OKP Holdings – Charting Growth in Construction

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

By Vinod Nedumudy

Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023
Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024
North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast

10 in 10 with OKP Holdings – Charting Growth in Construction

By Geoff Howie

OKP Holdings reported a 135.4% increase in gross profit for FY2024 to S$58.2 million, with a gross profit margin of 32.0%.
The construction and maintenance segments generated revenues of S$114.0 million and S$61.7 million, respectively, in FY2024.
OKP’s order book stands at S$600.7 million, supported by a strong balance sheet with S$124.3 million in cash.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, S&P 500 INDEX, Gold, Mira Pharmaceuticals , Longeveron , Titan International , VAALCO Energy, Windtree Therapeutics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Former CEO Claims Intel Is Back & Says Can We Please Stop Talking About Breaking It Up?
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences
[Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds
MIRA: Critical Testing Approved
LGVN: Great Position for Pivotal Year
TWI: Titan reports 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results. The company also commented on recovery in its markets as well as the possible effects of tariffs.
Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Adding exploration upside in Cote d’Ivoire
Windtree Therapeutics Inc – Sponsored – Impartial – Comprehensive

Former CEO Claims Intel Is Back & Says Can We Please Stop Talking About Breaking It Up?

By William Keating

On March 1, ex Intel CEO Craig Barrett posted a rebuttal of his former board members opinion piece on the subject of the company’s future
He claims that Intel is back, the company must not be broken up, the board should be fired and Mr. Gelsinger should be rehired to finish the job he started
Meanwhile, Intel has put its Ohio fab on hold until the end of the decade, its German fab on hold for two years, both damning indictments of Mr Gelsinger’s strategy

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/09] WTI Fell for Sixth Week on Trade Tensions and Demand Worries

WTI futures fell by 0.9% for the week ending 28/Feb, marking its sixth consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and demand concerns.
WTI fell 3.8% in February, its largest monthly drop since September 2024, as economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and bearish economic indicators pressured prices.
WTI OI PCR rose to 0.98 on 28/Feb from 0.95 on 21/Feb. Call OI increased by 7.4% WoW, while put OI rose by 10.5%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/09] Henry Hub Falls on Milder Weather and Weaker Demand Outlook

For the week ending 28/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of milder weather forecasts and expectations of weakening demand.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 1.00 on 28/Feb from 1.04 on 21/Feb. Call OI fell by 9.5% WoW, while put OI decreased by 13.3%.
Put OI was notable at the 2, 2.5, and 3 strikes, while call OI was concentrated at 4, 5, and 6.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

By Joe Jasper

In last week’s 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
We said don’t be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.

[Precious Insights 2025/09] Gold Miners Surge Amid Market Volatility, Protective Pisitioning Builds

Gold miners’ revenue grew 4% QoQ in Q1 2025, the highest in 15+ years, driven by rising gold prices and demand.
Gold markets face volatility with rising COMEX inventories and widening futures-spot spreads, but signs of stabilization are emerging.
GLD ETF is bearish, breaking key support, while options data show bullish sentiment with strong call interest above $3000.

MIRA: Critical Testing Approved

MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

LGVN: Great Position for Pivotal Year

Longeveron is focusing on using its primary treatment, Lomecel-B, to fight a rare pediatric heart birth defect that devastates families but continues to receive good FDA news regarding its treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease.
The company announced improved revenue and reduced costs in 2024 results.
Additionally, the company confirmed it has enough cash on hand to last through 2025 and that testing may be accelerated.

TWI: Titan reports 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results. The company also commented on recovery in its markets as well as the possible effects of tariffs.

Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Adding exploration upside in Cote d’Ivoire

By Auctus Advisors

Vaalco has farmed into the CI-705 block offshore Côte d’Ivoire.
Vaalco will become operator of the block with a 70% WI and a 100% paying interest though a commercial carry arrangement.
The partners are Ivory Coast Exploration Oil & Gas (ICE) and PETROCI.

Windtree Therapeutics Inc – Sponsored – Impartial – Comprehensive

In Sept.
2024, WINT reported positive Phase 2b study results of istaroxime in early CS patients.
To position istaroxime for Phase 3 readiness, WINT is launching a small Phase 2 study in the more severe form of CS, SCAI Stage C.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Indonesia: Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Cikarang Listrindo – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

Cikarang Listrindo – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Cikarang Listrindo (CL) has launched a roadshow to market a 144A/RegS senior unsecured notes offering of up to USD 350 mn.
The proceeds will likely be used to refinance the company’s USD 500 mn 4.95% bonds due September 2026. We see fair value for the proposed notes at c.
150 bps above the relevant Treasury benchmark.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 05

Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , CK Hutchison Holdings, BYD, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, SHEIN, Link REIT, Shui On Land, Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)
StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics
BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Tactical Buy Opportunity in Key Support Zone
Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) – The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide
It’s Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don’t Get Easier From Here
Seeking Stability and Certainty in a World of Chaos: Link REIT
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The gross round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$41.1bn (US$5.3bn). The net round-trip trade is HK$37.3bn (US$4.8bn).
Meituan , JD.com, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, ICBC, BeiGene, Kuaishou Technology and China Construction Bank are the largest buys. Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSBC, ZhongAn Online and Tencent are the largest sells.

StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics