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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Crypto: The More Things Change and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same


The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

By Etherbridge

  • 2025 is off to a tough start. Our call on boring or scary price action seems to be holding up.
  • Bitcoin remains boring and is range-bound between $106k and $91k.
  • Altcoins have been scary, with the average sector down 25%+. Sector Performance for Jan 2025.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger
  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: GTJA, ZTE In; CTG, China Coal Out
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March
  • Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding
  • EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market


Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly, Ingenia Communities (INA AU) and Lifestyle Communities (LIC AU) –  companies which provide low-cost housing needs for working, semi-retired, and/or retired people – are mulling a merger.
  • Part of the rumourmill pivots off of the fact Lifestyle will release its 1H25E results after market on the 24th Feb, shortly ahead of Ingenia’s own release the following morning.
  • Lifestyle’s share price remain 25% adrift of levels shortly ahead of a July 2024 ABC report alleging excessive exit fees. 

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

By Brian Freitas


FXI Rebalance Preview: GTJA, ZTE In; CTG, China Coal Out

By Brian Freitas


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.

Banco BPM’s Sweetened Takeover Offer for Anima Holding

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00 per share, securing over 43% shareholder support. Shareholders will vote on February 28, with deal completion expected in mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.
  • Strategic acquisition boosts Banco BPM’s non-interest income to 50% of total revenues and strengthens its wealth management and insurance business, reinforcing its defense against UniCredit’s €10 billion takeover attempt.
  • Market assigns a 92% probability of deal completion. Shareholders are advised to accept, as failure to tender may result in lower liquidity.

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
  • Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
  • Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.

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Daily Brief Macro: Technically Speaking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)
  • Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March
  • The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?
  • US Inflation Ending Cutting Cycle
  • Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports
  • Trump’s Tariffs: Steel First, and Then Reciprocal and Finally Cars
  • India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan’25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts
  • When Markets Meet Mercantilism
  • Overview #15 – Who’s Afraid of the USD?
  • Trump The Disrupter


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong’s secular bull market gained after DeepSeek’s announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.
  • Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.
  • BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.

Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March

By Douglas Kim

  • Nextrade (NXT) is an alternative trading system (ATS) in Korea which will start to go live on 4 March.
  • Nextrade provided a list of 10 stocks including Lotte Shopping,  Cheil Worldwide,  Kolon Industries, LG Uplus, and S Oil that will start to trade on NXT starting 4 March. 
  • Most of these 10 stocks tend to be lower beta stocks with relatively low amounts of share volatility. These 10 stocks are up on average 2.8% YTD, underperforming KOSPI.

The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.
  • For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.
  • This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.

US Inflation Ending Cutting Cycle

By Phil Rush

  • Intensifying US inflationary pressures significantly exceeded consensus expectations in January, accumulating news potentially worth 1pp in 2026 since the Fed first cut.
  • We now doubt there can be sufficient downside news to offset these hawkish pressures, with the Fed on hold in March. That means we see the next Fed move as a hike in 2026.
  • Annual core inflationary pressures are not outliers in the US, nor is its labour market resilience, so other central banks should struggle to sustain cutting cycles beyond H1.

Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
  • India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
  • ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

Trump’s Tariffs: Steel First, and Then Reciprocal and Finally Cars

By Alex Ng

  • The 25% Steel and Aluminum tariff could have small to modest adverse inflation and GDP growth impacts on the U.S., but reciprocal and more product tariffs create trade policy uncertainty. 
  • This could amplify the impact of the cumulative tariffs under president Trump’s administration.
  • President Donald Trump 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports from March 12 has no exemptions, though Trump did hint at an exemption for Australia on U.S. aircraft imports. 

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan’25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar’25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan’25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. 
  • Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar’25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep’25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. 
  • If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep’25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec’25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. 

When Markets Meet Mercantilism

By Massif Capital Research

  • The global investment landscape is undergoing a paradigm shift as geopolitical risks evolve from transient shocks to structural forces reshaping market efficiency.
  • Historically, markets absorbed episodic geopolitical crises—like oil embargoes or regional conflicts—through short-term volatility and mean-reverting adjustments.
  • However, the post-2020 era has seen economic policy fused with national security imperatives, exemplified by techno-nationalism (e.g., U.S. CHIPS Act), weaponized supply chains (e.g., rare earth export controls), and financial system fragmentation (e.g., SWIFT exclusions).

Overview #15 – Who’s Afraid of the USD?

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia
  • India’s rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market

Trump The Disrupter

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Trump is a disrupter. But it is game change NOT game end.
  • If he as we expect unleashes a global deregulation wave, reins in government, implements Reagonomics 2.0 and level the trade playing field everyone benefits.
  • We are overweight on US equities and the dollar and believe every market dip is an opportunity to exposure in conviction stocks.

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Daily Brief Australia: Lifestyle Communities, Ansell Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger
  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Healthcare Business Revival Drives H1 Result; FY25 Guidance Raised


Thoughts On An Ingenia (INA AU) / Lifestyle (LIC AU) Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly, Ingenia Communities (INA AU) and Lifestyle Communities (LIC AU) –  companies which provide low-cost housing needs for working, semi-retired, and/or retired people – are mulling a merger.
  • Part of the rumourmill pivots off of the fact Lifestyle will release its 1H25E results after market on the 24th Feb, shortly ahead of Ingenia’s own release the following morning.
  • Lifestyle’s share price remain 25% adrift of levels shortly ahead of a July 2024 ABC report alleging excessive exit fees. 

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Healthcare Business Revival Drives H1 Result; FY25 Guidance Raised

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) reported 30% YoY growth in revenue to $1,019M in 1HFY25 backed by strong Healthcare and Industrial business contribution. EBIT margin expanded 250bps to 12.5%.
  • KBU integration is progressing well and APIP measures bearing fruit generating higher savings. The company has realized a savings of $22M in H1FY25, compared to $7M in H1FY24.
  • Ansell revised FY25 adjusted EPS from $1.10–1.27 to $1.18–1.28, with the midpoint beating consensus. Management expects continued organic constant currency sales growth in H2FY25, but slower than H1FY25.

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Daily Brief India: Delhivery , Action Construction Equipment, WeWork India Management Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March
  • Action Construction Equipment Limited: Q3 FY25 Update
  • WeWork India Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.

Action Construction Equipment Limited: Q3 FY25 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Action Construction Equipment (ACCE IN)’s Q3/9M-FY25 performance shows strong revenue growth (up 16.6% in Q3, 15.2% over nine months), improved EBITDA margins, and robust unit sales in key equipment segments.
  • Improved product mix and a focus on high-value equipment drive operational efficiency, boosting profitability amid increasing infrastructure and capital expenditure trends.
  • In the next 2 years, company will increase the proportion of exports that will drive the revenue growth.

WeWork India Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN)  (WIML) is looking to raise about US$450m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JMFin, ICICI, Jefferies, Kotak, 360 One.
  • WIML was established in 2016 under the name, “Halosaur Bengaluru Private Limited” and is backed by Embassy Group. It is one of the leading premium flexible workspace operators.
  • WIML has been the largest operator by total revenue in the past three Fiscals, according to the CBRE Report.

Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
  • India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
  • ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

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Daily Brief Singapore: DBS, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • DBS – Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.
  • Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports


DBS – Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Granular data from DBS shows worsening credit metrics in Greater China and in Hong Kong.
  • We use DBS and other banks, as a window on credit metrics for China banks and HK local banks.
  • The NPL ratio for its HK business moved from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY, while Pillar 3 data shows sharp rise in New NPLs in 2H24

Indian Trade Body Greenlights ADD On Halobutyl Rubber Imports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
  • India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
  • ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

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Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, TotalEnergies , American International Group, Bitcoin, Skyworks Solutions, Atea Pharmaceuticals , Coherent Inc, Crown Holdings, Enersys, Hologic Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Correlation Plumbing
  • [Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Surpasses Estimates on Strong Gas Trading and Higher LNG Prices
  • American International Group (AIG) – Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024
  • The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same
  • Skyworks Solutions: Automotive Sector Expansion For Increased Connectivity & Automation!
  • Reviving two old ideas
  • Coherent Corp.: Datacom Revenue Diversification To Secure A Competitive Edge In The Market!
  • Crown Holdings: Here Are the 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance for 2025 & Beyond!
  • Enersys – EnerSys: Electrification & Digitization Trends Can Shape The Future Of Energy Management!
  • Hologic: The Future of 3D Mammography and Molecular Diagnostics—What’s Next?


Correlation Plumbing

By Alpha Exchange

  • Nvidia set a new record for the largest single one day loss of market cap, losing 700 billion on a 17% down move
  • Market risk is about being wrongly sized and underestimating volatility, diversifying assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and broad market put spreads is recommended
  • Financial market insurance is not like hurricane insurance, as exposures within markets are interconnected and risk can be amplified when positions are crowded

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies Surpasses Estimates on Strong Gas Trading and Higher LNG Prices

By Suhas Reddy

  • In Q4, TotalEnergies beat adjusted net income forecasts by 4.8% and revenue projections by 11%. Adjusted net income and EPS rose by 8.1% QoQ and 9.2%, respectively.
  • TotalEnergies’ average gas price realisation rose 8.3% QoQ, European refining margins surged by 68.2% QoQ, while LNG price realisation rose 4.6%.
  • TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon production rose 0.7% QoQ to 2.43 mboepd, as a 4.5% gas output increase offset a 2.4% oil production decline.

American International Group (AIG) – Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • AIG has completed efforts to reposition itself as a leader in the insurance industry
  • The company has a renewed strategy for growth and improved financial performance
  • A strong leadership team and clear vision for the future position AIG to deliver value for customers and shareholders

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

By Etherbridge

  • 2025 is off to a tough start. Our call on boring or scary price action seems to be holding up.
  • Bitcoin remains boring and is range-bound between $106k and $91k.
  • Altcoins have been scary, with the average sector down 25%+. Sector Performance for Jan 2025.

Skyworks Solutions: Automotive Sector Expansion For Increased Connectivity & Automation!

By Baptista Research

  • Skyworks Solutions recently reported its first fiscal quarter of 2025, delivering results that met or surpassed expectations in key financial metrics.
  • The company posted a revenue of $1.068 billion, with earnings per share of $1.60 and generated a free cash flow of $338 million.
  • These results were slightly above the midpoint of guidance, reflecting successful revenue growth strategies, particularly across its mobile and broad markets segments.

Reviving two old ideas

By Turtles all the way down

  • I have again taken a position in Atea Pharma (AVIR) .
  • I wrote this up a little over a year ago and flipped it for about a 20% profit within a few months.
  • I kind of forgot about it as I lost interest in these pharma special situations, but given recent events AVIR is too enticing to ignore.

Coherent Corp.: Datacom Revenue Diversification To Secure A Competitive Edge In The Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Coherent’s latest earnings report for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 illustrates a mixed set of outcomes, reflecting significant advancements in certain segments while highlighting ongoing challenges that the company faces in other areas.
  • Revenue reached a record $1.43 billion, marking a 6% sequential and 27% year-over-year growth, driven by substantial progress in AI-related datacom transceivers and increasing demand in the telecom sector.
  • This growth is a positive indicator of Coherent’s robust position in high-speed optical data communication markets, especially as they continue to expand their customer base for significant transceiver products like the 800-gig and invest in advancing their 1.6T transceiver applications.

Crown Holdings: Here Are the 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance for 2025 & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Crown Holdings, Inc. reported its fourth-quarter performance for the year 2024, demonstrating notable growth and operational improvements, albeit with some challenges.
  • The earnings per share for the quarter reached $3.02, largely augmented by a significant gain from the sale of Eviosys.
  • When adjusted, the earnings per share stood at $1.59, which surpassed the $1.24 figure from the comparable quarter in the previous year.

Enersys – EnerSys: Electrification & Digitization Trends Can Shape The Future Of Energy Management!

By Baptista Research

  • EnerSys reported a mixed but promising outlook for their fiscal third quarter of 2025.
  • Revenue increased by 5% year-over-year, reaching approximately $906 million, though this growth was mildly under expectations due to foreign exchange pressures, slower U.S. communication market recovery, and a disruption at a motive power customer’s facility in EMEA.
  • A key positive for the quarter was the notable margin expansion driven by a strong price/mix across all business lines, operational improvements in Energy Systems, and contributions from the recent Bren-Tronics acquisition.

Hologic: The Future of 3D Mammography and Molecular Diagnostics—What’s Next?

By Baptista Research

  • Hologic, Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, reflecting both positive operational efficiencies and some challenges impacting revenue streams.
  • The overall revenue for the quarter came in at $1.022 billion, marking a modest 1% increase on a constant currency basis.
  • Noteworthy is the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar, which reduced reported revenue by about $9 million.

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Daily Brief China: Cambricon Technologies Lt, Guotai Junan Securities , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Guming Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Toyota Motor, Swire Properties, Sunshine Lake Pharma and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: GTJA, ZTE In; CTG, China Coal Out
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Innovation and Overseas Expansion Driving Earnings Rebound
  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK): Potential Valuation Upside with Upcoming Mixue IPO
  • CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates
  • EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Feb-2025): LaSalle appoints APAC Co-Heads; Claire Tang moves to Rava.
  • Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma – “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

By Brian Freitas


FXI Rebalance Preview: GTJA, ZTE In; CTG, China Coal Out

By Brian Freitas


Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Innovation and Overseas Expansion Driving Earnings Rebound

By Sumeet Singh

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
  • JHP  has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Guming Holdings (1364 HK): Potential Valuation Upside with Upcoming Mixue IPO

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) ‘s shares closed 7% below issue price by end of yesterday’s trading. 
  • Institutional investors may be cautious, with many likely waiting for the upcoming IPO of Mixue Group (MIX HK), widely viewed as a more attractive and bigger opportunity in tea space.
  • The upcoming Mixue IPO—aiming to raise about USD500 million—could spark broader investor interest in the sector and may boost valuations for Guming given its relative operational strengths.

CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about updates from its most recent filings.

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
  • Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
  • Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Feb-2025): LaSalle appoints APAC Co-Heads; Claire Tang moves to Rava.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • LaSalle appoints Japan, Korea-based APAC Co-Heads as Tang heads to Rava, highlighting leadership changes within the company.
  • Dash Living’s expansion in Japan to 19 locations through partnerships with BlackRock and Greystar reflects their growth strategy in the region.
  • Swire Properties expecting a $103M loss as Pacific Place rents drop 16% due to markdowns, showcasing the impact of market changes on the company.

Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma – “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Most revenue was contributed by Kewei, but kewei has been included in VBP.Together with increasing competition, the outlook is gloomy if Sunshine Lake Pharma continues to mainly rely on Kewei.
  • There’s a significant gap in Sunshine Lake Pharma’s R&D progress/clinical data compared to the products of peers.The pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years
  • Sunshine Lake Pharma is inferior to other pharmaceutical companies in China.Even if CJ Pharma will be merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, its market value should be lower than leading Biotech.

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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Eyewear Holdings , Shimano Inc, Recruit Holdings, Impress Holdings, Mitsuba Corp, Nhk Spring, Nippon Denko, Nisshinbo Holdings, Oat Agrio, Seino Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion
  • Shimano (7309) | A Slow but Steady Ascent
  • Recruit 3Q: Strong Set of Results Despite Slowdown in Labour Markets
  • Impress Holdings (9479 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Mitsuba Corp (7280 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Nippon Denko (5563 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
  • Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
  • Oat Agrio (4979 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
  • (9076 JP) New Efficiencies and Modernisation in Consumer Goods Shipping


Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
  • He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
  • The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.

Shimano (7309) | A Slow but Steady Ascent

By Mark Chadwick

  • Cautious but Credible – FY25 guidance underwhelms, but Shimano’s realism is justified. The bike market is recovering, even if 2025 will be a grind.
  • Sitting on a Cash Pile – ¥530 billion in net financial assets, yet capital returns remain restrained. Investors will be watching for bolder moves.
  • Quality Wins – mid-cycle ROIC north of 20% and end-market inventories normalising – a long-term winner at a fair price.

Recruit 3Q: Strong Set of Results Despite Slowdown in Labour Markets

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 3QFY03/2025 results today which were in line with estimates. Despite labour markets cooling off, Recruit managed to report a strong set of results.
  • The company also has provided revised guidance for full-year FY03/2025 with an upward revision to revenues while Adj. EBITDA is forecast to be above the midpoint of the previous range.
  • Despite the slowdown in labour markets, Recruit’s monetisation efforts have paid off, however, we would not rush to make an entry.

Impress Holdings (9479 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased YoY in several segments, with notable declines in Content and Platform Businesses due to market trends.
  • Operating losses were reduced across multiple segments, attributed to improved profitability and lower SG&A expenses despite revenue declines.
  • Certain segments experienced revenue growth, driven by strong sales in Internet Media services and new platform developments.

Mitsuba Corp (7280 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Cumulative Q3 revenue rose 0.2% YoY to JPY257.4bn, with notable growth in the Other business segment.
  • Operating profit increased 8.0% YoY to JPY15.6bn, driven by price improvements and growth in core business segments.
  • Transportation Equipment-related Operations faced a 23.1% YoY revenue decline in China, despite growth in other regions.

Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased YoY across most segments, with Automotive Seating declining; operating profit rose, and GPM improved to 13.7%.
  • Revenue increased YoY, narrowing losses; yen depreciation boosted yen-denominated earnings at overseas subsidiaries.
  • Semiconductor market recovery increased sales of process components, while high-capacity HDD demand boosted HDD suspensions revenue.

Nippon Denko (5563 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY12/24, revenue was JPY78.2bn (-0.2% YoY), operating profit JPY6.9bn (+46.0% YoY), recurring profit JPY4.9bn (+100.8% YoY).
  • The company raised its annual dividend forecast to JPY11.0, targeting a payout ratio of about 40%.
  • Full-year forecast for FY12/25 remains undecided due to uncertainties in alloy prices and electronic component demand.

Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY12/24 sales reached 102.0% of forecast; operating profit 110.5%, recurring profit 128.4%, and net income 102.8%.
  • FY12/25 forecast: sales JPY506.0bn (+2.3% YoY), operating profit JPY19.7bn (+18.8% YoY), net income JPY18.3bn (+78.1% YoY).
  • Wireless and Communications segment expects increased sales and profit due to demand for disaster prevention systems and defense-related business.

Oat Agrio (4979 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY12/24 revenue was JPY29.8bn, with operating profit at JPY3.1bn, and net income at JPY2.1bn.
  • Agrichemicals revenue declined 6.8% YoY, while fertilizers and biostimulants revenue increased 9.3% YoY to JPY18.7bn.
  • FY12/25 forecasts project revenue at JPY30.8bn, operating profit at JPY3.3bn, and net income at JPY2.1bn.

(9076 JP) New Efficiencies and Modernisation in Consumer Goods Shipping

By Michael Causton

  • Despite a year passing since the new rules on driver overtime came into force, transport companies are still coming up with ways to keep to the new regulations.
  • Seino, one of the largest trucking companies, has consolidated its regional subsidiaries and plans to open new regional hubs to reduce route distances.
  • Others will do the same and more collaborations are likely, lowering costs and improving efficiency for consumer distribution.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Cambricon Technologies Lt, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, NVIDIA Corp, Nissan Motor, Novatek Microelectronics Corp, Coherent Inc, Skyworks Solutions, Tenable Holdings Inc, Paycor HCM, PTC Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Extremes; ChipMOS Still High
  • Correlation Plumbing
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Feb-2025): Foxconn chair denies Nissan takeover, focuses on collaboration.
  • Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.
  • Coherent Corp.: Datacom Revenue Diversification To Secure A Competitive Edge In The Market!
  • Skyworks Solutions: Automotive Sector Expansion For Increased Connectivity & Automation!
  • Tenable Holdings: What Is Its Cloud Security and Hybrid Environment Strategy?
  • Paycor HCM: Innovative Product Integration Modernization As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!
  • PTC Inc.: Will Its New And Enhanced Go-to-Market Strategy Catalyze Growth?


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

By Brian Freitas


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Extremes; ChipMOS Still High

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +24.7% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread At Current Level
  • ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for Closer to Parity Before Going Long Again
  • ChipMOS: +1.8% Premium; Can Continue to Consider Shorting at Current Level

Correlation Plumbing

By Alpha Exchange

  • Nvidia set a new record for the largest single one day loss of market cap, losing 700 billion on a 17% down move
  • Market risk is about being wrongly sized and underestimating volatility, diversifying assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and broad market put spreads is recommended
  • Financial market insurance is not like hurricane insurance, as exposures within markets are interconnected and risk can be amplified when positions are crowded

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Feb-2025): Foxconn chair denies Nissan takeover, focuses on collaboration.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Foxconn chairman emphasizes collaboration with Nissan, denies interest in takeover, focusing on their partnership.
  • SMIC targets automotive growth, facing competition in China’s chip market, seeking to expand market share.
  • Microip sees 489% revenue growth post-CES success, expanding ‘designless’ strategy, fueling January success.

Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.

By Patrick Liao

  • US-China trade war has led to tariff uncertainties. China’s subsidy program has stimulated pre-purchasing by customers in 1Q25, resulting in increased demand for televisions, tablets, phones, and IT products. 
  • All three major product lines have shown seasonal growth. which LDDI has shown the largest growth, SoC follows closely, and SMDDI has lower growth.
  • DeepSeek will accelerate the implementation and popularization of AI applications, benefiting the company.

Coherent Corp.: Datacom Revenue Diversification To Secure A Competitive Edge In The Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Coherent’s latest earnings report for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 illustrates a mixed set of outcomes, reflecting significant advancements in certain segments while highlighting ongoing challenges that the company faces in other areas.
  • Revenue reached a record $1.43 billion, marking a 6% sequential and 27% year-over-year growth, driven by substantial progress in AI-related datacom transceivers and increasing demand in the telecom sector.
  • This growth is a positive indicator of Coherent’s robust position in high-speed optical data communication markets, especially as they continue to expand their customer base for significant transceiver products like the 800-gig and invest in advancing their 1.6T transceiver applications.

Skyworks Solutions: Automotive Sector Expansion For Increased Connectivity & Automation!

By Baptista Research

  • Skyworks Solutions recently reported its first fiscal quarter of 2025, delivering results that met or surpassed expectations in key financial metrics.
  • The company posted a revenue of $1.068 billion, with earnings per share of $1.60 and generated a free cash flow of $338 million.
  • These results were slightly above the midpoint of guidance, reflecting successful revenue growth strategies, particularly across its mobile and broad markets segments.

Tenable Holdings: What Is Its Cloud Security and Hybrid Environment Strategy?

By Baptista Research

  • Tenable Network Security’s latest quarterly performance reflects a series of strategic moves aimed at solidifying its position in the cybersecurity industry, aligning business growth with shareholder returns.
  • The company reported robust financial results, exceeding expectations across several key metrics such as calculated current billings (CCB) growth, operating margin, and unlevered free cash flow.
  • On the positive side, Tenable’s revenue for the quarter was $235.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 11%, which surpassed the anticipated midpoint of their guidance.

Paycor HCM: Innovative Product Integration Modernization As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Paycor, a human capital management (HCM) solutions provider, shared promising financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending September 30, 2024.
  • The company reported a 17% increase in revenue year-over-year, reaching $167 million, largely fueled by strong recurring revenue growth of 16%, driven by a 5% increase in the average number of employees on its platform and an 11% rise in revenue per employee per month (PEPM).
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

PTC Inc.: Will Its New And Enhanced Go-to-Market Strategy Catalyze Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • PTC’s first quarter of fiscal 2025 results came in slightly above initial guidance amidst ongoing challenges in the macroeconomic environment and strategic changes in its go-to-market framework.
  • The results underscore the company’s resilient annual recurring revenue (ARR) and robust free cash flow, indicative of a diversified business model and strong execution strategies.
  • Positively, PTC reported a constant currency ARR of $2.277 billion, representing an 11% year-over-year increase.

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