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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Intel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Intel
  • All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.
  • Nikon (7731) | Eyeing the Future? Nikon and Essilor’s Partnership in AR
  • HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Oct 2024
  • The Beat Ideas: GPIL- Low Cost Mining with Upcoming Steel Plant
  • Bright Smart Securities (1428.HK) – Monday, Jul 8, 2024
  • Cash Converters International – Growth and value
  • Medley (4480 JP): Strong Base Business; No Fear from Fx; Digital Healthcare Push to Benefit
  • Portfolio Update: September 2024
  • Pioneer Credit Ltd – Refinancing completed


Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Intel

By Odd Lots

  • Intel is struggling, with a dismal stock performance and job cuts
  • The company’s risky and capital-intensive strategy may not be sustainable
  • The core business is no longer sufficient to support their strategic goals, leading to financial challenges and market share loss.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
  • With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
  • AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.

Nikon (7731) | Eyeing the Future? Nikon and Essilor’s Partnership in AR

By Mark Chadwick

  • Essilor’s investment underscores Nikon’s undervalued potential, spotlighting its advanced optical technologies as strategic growth drivers in emerging high-tech sectors like AR.
  • Nikon’s established expertise in precision optics is highly adaptable for AR applications, positioning the company to capitalize on rising demand for wearable and immersive technology.
  • Increased collaboration with EssilorLuxottica may enhance Nikon’s R&D capabilities, promising new innovations and potential revenue streams, which could strengthen Nikon’s profitability and share value long-term.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Oct 2024

By Sameer Taneja

  • The HK market is moving, and the share prices of high-yield companies are increasing. Despite the average YTD returns of 36%, stocks are trading at 5-18% dividend yields. 
  • We await the November results of Pacific Textiles (1382 HK), which we will soon initiate coverage on.
  • We note that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK) continues with its buybacks, having repurchased 3.2 million shares (0.2% of outstanding shares) since August 28th, 2024. 

The Beat Ideas: GPIL- Low Cost Mining with Upcoming Steel Plant

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Godawari Power and Ispat (GODPI IN) is fully integrated steel manufacturer with a diverse portfolio encompassing iron ore mining, pellet production, sponge iron, steel billets, ferroalloys, and power generation.
  • Net Cash Balance Sheet, Mining Expansion, and upcoming Integrated Steel Plant provide huge potential for the captive consumption.
  • Execution of the capex plan within the stipulated timeframe is the key risk.

Bright Smart Securities (1428.HK) – Monday, Jul 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Bright Smart Securities is a successful brokerage firm in Hong Kong founded by Mow Lum Yip in 1995 and publicly listed in 2010
  • The company has shown steady growth since its IPO, with impressive increases in revenue and net income
  • Despite a challenging market environment in Hong Kong, Bright Smart has maintained stable results, grown its client base and assets under management, and pays out all earnings in dividends, with dividends exceeding net earnings over the last 5 years.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Cash Converters International – Growth and value

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update report on consumer finance group Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) following the release of its FY24 results which saw 26% growth in revenue on the pcp and EBITDA growth of 21% in line with our forecasts.
  • The gross loan book grew 6% to $288m, which we find impressive as the business transitions away from SACC products due to regulatory change.
  • This was more than offset by growth in other products, domestically and internationally.

Medley (4480 JP): Strong Base Business; No Fear from Fx; Digital Healthcare Push to Benefit

By Tina Banerjee

  • Medley (4480 JP) is a safe bet for hiding from the negative impact of strengthening yen. The company should benefit from digital healthcare push from the newly elected Prime Minister.
  • Although Medley has reported mixed 2Q24 result, with robust topline and declining profitability, the long-term growth potential remains intact. The company guided for 43% YoY revenue growth in 2024.
  • Continued shortage of human resource, including doctors and nurses at medical care facilities in Japan and underpenetrated market remain the main growth engines of the company.

Portfolio Update: September 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • This month, I had the privilege of attending an investment conference, where I engaged with many successful value investors and independent thinkers.
  • During one conversation, an investor jokingly remarked that everyone seems to have shifted toward “quality growth investing,” while he and Mr. Robotti appear to be among the few who still favor cyclical stocks, such as Tidewater Inc.
  • Although I don’t generally shy away from cyclical stocks, I recognize the immense challenge of navigating the capital cycle by investing in companies that seem on the brink of failure.

Pioneer Credit Ltd – Refinancing completed

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update on ethically-motivated, diversified financials group Pioneer Credit (ASX:PNC) following the company’s announced new $272.5m four-year syndicated senior finance facility.
  • Our base case valuation has increased to $250m (previously $217m) or $1.94/share due to lower finance costs in FY26 (down $8m to c.
  • $20m) and ongoing.

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Daily Brief Macro: HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)
  • MacroVoices #448 Luke Gromen: Why the Gold Recycling Trade is Accelerating
  • Steno Signals #120 – Liquidity and rate cuts are incoming in an already OK economy
  • China: Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis
  • Global Commodities: This time, it feels different
  • Global FX: It was hard enough in the first place
  • The Middle East: At An Inflection Point?
  • Option Prices are Singing
  • HEM: Sugar Rush
  • Prices Dip Fast In India; Tire Makers Suffer In First Half Of FY 2024 25


HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

By David Mudd

  • Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.
  • The performance of the “Magnificent 5” China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta .
  • The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.

MacroVoices #448 Luke Gromen: Why the Gold Recycling Trade is Accelerating

By Macro Voices

  • S&P 500 futures down 33 basis points, showing signs of exhaustion
  • US dollar index up 67 basis points, driven by euro reversal
  • China’s unexpected outperformance in equities may be linked to US stimulus actions and coordination

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Steno Signals #120 – Liquidity and rate cuts are incoming in an already OK economy

By Andreas Steno

  • Just a few hours after the release of a much stronger-than-expected jobs report, Goolsbee of the FOMC highlighted the risk of undershooting inflation in the US.
  • While Goolsbee is a dovish, soft-leaning member of the committee, it goes to show that you don’t turn around a supertanker like the Fed just because the NFP printed a bit better than expected.
  • The Fed has set a direction, and it will take a lot to convince them not to continue cutting interest rates back toward neutral, around 3%.

China: Lessons from the 1997-98 Asian Crisis

By Alex Ng

  • Overall, the warning from slow real credit growth on reduced credit supply and demand is the main lesson from the Asia crisis 1997-98.  
  • China High FX reserves; low borrowing overseas and dominance of domestic investors in Yuan markets argues against a currency crisis. 
  • Asia widespread banking crisis are also unlikely to repeat in China, though we see growing stress among rural banks that in the worst case could be a rural banking crisis.  

Global Commodities: This time, it feels different

By At Any Rate

  • Brent oil futures trading in line with fair value, with bullish bias in options, as volume of bullish calls hit record high
  • Ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran raising concerns about further escalation, with recent attacks and strikes indicating potential for heightened tensions
  • Global oil inventories are significantly lower than in previous years, potentially impacting market dynamics and prices as demand and inventory levels play a key role

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Global FX: It was hard enough in the first place

By At Any Rate

  • US economic growth has shown exceptional resilience, with a strong payrolls report and other positive macroeconomic factors
  • Higher US yields may put pressure on dollar shorts and lead to a potential capitulation in those positions
  • Canadian dollar baskets may outperform in this environment, with higher US yields benefiting the CAD

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The Middle East: At An Inflection Point?

By Alastair Newton

  • Israel is likely to retaliate against Iran’s recent missile attack, potentially escalating the situation.
  • Israel’s aim may be to fundamentally shift the regional balance of power.
  • The threat to oil due to this conflict may be overstated.

Option Prices are Singing

By Alpha Exchange

  • Option prices are a valuable tool for studying market trends and risk premium
  • Gold’s unique properties make it a valuable asset for portfolio diversification and defense against government chaos
  • The oil VIX index, OVX, provides insights into market risk and volatility in the oil market, with potential implications for broader market trends

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


HEM: Sugar Rush

By Phil Rush

  • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing is not in line with the resilient data.
  • There is still a high level of underlying wage inflation.
  • There are expectations of 25bp cuts at the upcoming ECB, BoE, and Fed meetings, but these cuts are likely to cease early in 2025, mirroring the events of 1998. Excessive easing at the start can lead to economic bubbles.

Prices Dip Fast In India; Tire Makers Suffer In First Half Of FY 2024 25

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • NR prices surge over 33% YoY during April-August 2024
  • In FY 2024-25 Q1, operating margin of top five tire firms falls ~200 basis points to 14%
  • NR prices in downward trend in Oct amid a surge in supply

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Daily Brief Australia: Arcadium Lithium , Cash Converters Intl, Pioneer Credit, Alkane Resources, Iron Ore, Ricegrowers Ltd, WRKR, Fluence Corp and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag
  • Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light
  • Cash Converters International – Growth and value
  • Pioneer Credit Ltd – Refinancing completed
  • ALK AU – Australian Gold Conference 2024 – Who and What did we find interesting at the event?
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​40] Expanded China Stimulus Supports Bullish Iron Ore
  • SunRice (Ricegrowers) Interview Transcript
  • Wrkr (ASX:WRK) Webinar Transcript 2 August 2024
  • Fluence Corp Ltd – The pipeline is being converted
  • Carly Holdings – Fleet size up, sales up, costs up less


Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag

By David Blennerhassett

  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has confirmed it has approached Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/(ALTM US) regarding a potential acquisition. 
  • No Offer Price has been announced; however a proposed bid with a 30%+ premium, on top of last week’s 11% bounce, has been rumoured. That implies a price of ~$6/share.
  • Given shares were trading ~A$10/share in January this year, one Aussie-based fund reckons such an Offer would be highly opportunistic; and that a bid 2.5-3x higher is reasonable. 

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

By Arun George

  • In response to media reports, Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). No terms were disclosed.
  • According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. 
  • The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  

Cash Converters International – Growth and value

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update report on consumer finance group Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) following the release of its FY24 results which saw 26% growth in revenue on the pcp and EBITDA growth of 21% in line with our forecasts.
  • The gross loan book grew 6% to $288m, which we find impressive as the business transitions away from SACC products due to regulatory change.
  • This was more than offset by growth in other products, domestically and internationally.

Pioneer Credit Ltd – Refinancing completed

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update on ethically-motivated, diversified financials group Pioneer Credit (ASX:PNC) following the company’s announced new $272.5m four-year syndicated senior finance facility.
  • Our base case valuation has increased to $250m (previously $217m) or $1.94/share due to lower finance costs in FY26 (down $8m to c.
  • $20m) and ongoing.

ALK AU – Australian Gold Conference 2024 – Who and What did we find interesting at the event?

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • From time to time, RaaS Research produces non-commissioned research reports on industries and companies which we believe deserve attention.
  • Josh Baker attended the Australian Gold Conference last week and found eight stocks he believes have clear catalysts for a re-rate.None of these companies are currently covered by RaaS.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​40] Expanded China Stimulus Supports Bullish Iron Ore

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX Iron Ore futures surged by $5.64/ton last week, with prices peaking at $113.55/ton on 30 Sept amid China’s expanded stimulus measures.
  • Short-Term moving averages signal a bullish trend, with the 9-day MA crossing the 100-day MA on 4 Oct, indicating further upward momentum.
  • Overbought conditions, with RSI nearing 70, suggest caution, and a tight stop loss remains advisable as support at $105/ton remains weak.

SunRice (Ricegrowers) Interview Transcript

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group interviewed Ricegrowers Ltd (trading as SunRice) Group Chief Financial Officer Dimitri Courtelis post the company’s FY24 results.

Wrkr (ASX:WRK) Webinar Transcript 2 August 2024

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr presented at a RaaS-focused Coffee Microcaps Webinar on 2 August 2024

Fluence Corp Ltd – The pipeline is being converted

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published a flash comment on environmental services company Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) following its announcement yesterday that it had secured a US$7.1m contract to provide a Sea Water Reverse Osmosis project for Stereau on Mayotte, a French archipelago in the Indian Ocean.
  • This material project for the Municipal division (MWW) is complemented by a US$1.5m contract win in the Industrial Wastewater & Biogas division (IWB) for a food processor in the US.
  • When combined with other recent successful tenders the new orders secured in the first 6 weeks of the current quarter total ~US$12m.

Carly Holdings – Fleet size up, sales up, costs up less

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update on vehicle subscription business Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) following the release of its FY24 results which saw a 71% year-on-year increase in revenue to $3.6m, a 40% increase in gross profit to $1.15m and 22% increase in EBITDA loss to $3.57m.
  • Carly’s FY24 accounts underline the company’s success in growing fleet and subscriptions but highlights the drag which deploying vehicles as they are acquired necessarily has on the cost base.
  • Revenue was again up strongly but so were fleet-related costs, albeit at only slightly over half as much.

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Daily Brief South Korea: KB Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Value-Up Index: Detailed Methodology, Weights, Float Rates, & Passive Impacts Obtained


Korea Value-Up Index: Detailed Methodology, Weights, Float Rates, & Passive Impacts Obtained

By Sanghyun Park

  • This post dives into the official details of the Korea Value-Up Index methodology that I obtained from KRX. Plus, it has the official weights and free-float rates for each constituent.
  • The 3rd and 4th Phases led to surprising stocks entering the index, causing drops for KB and Hana, while SK Hynix benefited from the Exception Application rule.
  • The index’s straightforward methodology suggests low rebalancing uncertainty, but flexible Special Entry rules and upcoming December changes may add unpredictability, targeting bank stocks like KB, Hana, and JB.

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Far East Orchard and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Prices Dip Fast In India; Tire Makers Suffer In First Half Of FY 2024 25
  • REIT Watch – S-Reits log best quarterly performance since 2020 with double-digit returns in Q3
  • Buybacks continue at moderate pace; Far East Orchard chair acquires shares


Prices Dip Fast In India; Tire Makers Suffer In First Half Of FY 2024 25

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • NR prices surge over 33% YoY during April-August 2024
  • In FY 2024-25 Q1, operating margin of top five tire firms falls ~200 basis points to 14%
  • NR prices in downward trend in Oct amid a surge in supply

REIT Watch – S-Reits log best quarterly performance since 2020 with double-digit returns in Q3

By Geoff Howie

  • S-Reits log best quarterly performance since 2020 with double-digit returns in Q3 Meanwhile, the iEdge S-Reit Index rallied 14.7 per cent in its best quarterly performance since its inception in 2010.
  • Prior to this, the index’s best quarterly performance was in Q2 2020, when it rose 14.1 per cent.

Buybacks continue at moderate pace; Far East Orchard chair acquires shares

By Geoff Howie

  • Share buybacks by primary-listed companies The five sessions also saw 16 primary-listed companies conduct buybacks with a total consideration of S$20.2 million, similar to the consideration in the preceding week.
  • Sats maintains that repurchased shares held in treasury can be transferred for share schemes without diluting existing shares.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Medco Energi, Tata Motors ADR


Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Medco Energi, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Gold, Nvr Inc, USD, Crude Oil, Verde Clean Fuels , Cocoa Futures, POET Technologies , Arq and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Intel
  • MacroVoices #448 Luke Gromen: Why the Gold Recycling Trade is Accelerating
  • Portfolio Update: September 2024
  • Option Prices are Singing
  • US Rates: The Fall Classic
  • US Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS)
  • Disaster Averted – But Not Solved
  • POET Technologies Inc – With Cash at 40 Million
  • Arq, Inc. – Significant EBITDA Growth from Execution and Expansion into Faster-Growth Markets


Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Intel

By Odd Lots

  • Intel is struggling, with a dismal stock performance and job cuts
  • The company’s risky and capital-intensive strategy may not be sustainable
  • The core business is no longer sufficient to support their strategic goals, leading to financial challenges and market share loss.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


MacroVoices #448 Luke Gromen: Why the Gold Recycling Trade is Accelerating

By Macro Voices

  • S&P 500 futures down 33 basis points, showing signs of exhaustion
  • US dollar index up 67 basis points, driven by euro reversal
  • China’s unexpected outperformance in equities may be linked to US stimulus actions and coordination

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Portfolio Update: September 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • This month, I had the privilege of attending an investment conference, where I engaged with many successful value investors and independent thinkers.
  • During one conversation, an investor jokingly remarked that everyone seems to have shifted toward “quality growth investing,” while he and Mr. Robotti appear to be among the few who still favor cyclical stocks, such as Tidewater Inc.
  • Although I don’t generally shy away from cyclical stocks, I recognize the immense challenge of navigating the capital cycle by investing in companies that seem on the brink of failure.

Option Prices are Singing

By Alpha Exchange

  • Option prices are a valuable tool for studying market trends and risk premium
  • Gold’s unique properties make it a valuable asset for portfolio diversification and defense against government chaos
  • The oil VIX index, OVX, provides insights into market risk and volatility in the oil market, with potential implications for broader market trends

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


US Rates: The Fall Classic

By At Any Rate

  • Labor market data challenges notion of slowing labor demand and jolts
  • Fed policy expectations shift to 25 basis point cut in November
  • Uncertainty in policy outcomes causing high policy uncertainty and potential for large market moves

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


US Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count declined by two to 585 for the week ending 04/Oct, marking the seventh drop in eight weeks.
  • The US oil rig count fell by five to 479, its lowest since 19/Jul. Gas rigs rose by three to 102, marking its third straight weekly gain.
  • For the week ending 04/Oct, US energy producers added two rigs in Texas but cut three in New Mexico and one each in Louisiana and Oklahoma.  

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.5%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.1%).
  • Energy Technology (13.2% of the index) was down 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.3% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of index) was up 2.0%.
  • Top 10 Performers: PEV, EVGO, NXH, EAF, CRE, AZRE, SPI, BNET, GIGA, PLL


Disaster Averted – But Not Solved

By The Commodity Report

  • Disaster Averted – But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.
  • The law has been in place since May 2023, and was due to enter into effect on 30 December 2024.
  • EU DR requires that targeted commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood) and relevant products sold in the EU must not be produced on land that was deforested after 2020.

POET Technologies Inc – With Cash at 40 Million

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • POET Technologies is a startup disrupting the photonics industry with a new technology that eliminates parts of an optical transceiver and replaces them with a single integrated device which is smaller, cheaper, faster, more scalable and with much lower power consumption than the current solutions.
  • It has a $50M joint venture with Sanan IC to make and sell optical engines to data centers and telecom.
  • Its solution can be produced at wafer scale, eliminating costly manual steps, and allowing it to be easily produced in large quantities and at low cost.

Arq, Inc. – Significant EBITDA Growth from Execution and Expansion into Faster-Growth Markets

By Water Tower Research

  • A diversified environmental technology company focused on developing and providing solutions for air, water, and soil purification.
  • Arq is a leading producer of powdered activated carbon (PAC) and is expanding into the faster-growing and higher-margin granular activated carbon (GAC) market, which should drive significant EBITDA growth in the coming years.
  • Focus on execution and cash flow. Since new CEO Bob Rasmus took the helm in 2H23, Arq has delivered improving performance with its foundational and cash-generating PAC business through operational efficiencies, better contracting terms, and penetration of new markets.

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Daily Brief China: Zhejiang Expressway Co H, MDL Wholesale, Pacific Textiles, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Bright Smart Securities And, China Boqi Environmental Hol, Orient Overseas International and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): “Cheap” Access To Zheshang Securities
  • MDL Wholesale Pre-IPO – IPO Redux
  • HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Oct 2024
  • Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update – Some New Information Worth the Attention
  • Bright Smart Securities (1428.HK) – Monday, Jul 8, 2024
  • Boqi Environmental (2377 HK): Privatisation by Management?
  • Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): “Cheap” Access To Zheshang Securities

By David Blennerhassett


MDL Wholesale Pre-IPO – IPO Redux

By Nicholas Tan

  • MDL Wholesale Limited is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MDL is a leading food and FMCG distribution solution provider in China.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Oct 2024

By Sameer Taneja

  • The HK market is moving, and the share prices of high-yield companies are increasing. Despite the average YTD returns of 36%, stocks are trading at 5-18% dividend yields. 
  • We await the November results of Pacific Textiles (1382 HK), which we will soon initiate coverage on.
  • We note that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK) continues with its buybacks, having repurchased 3.2 million shares (0.2% of outstanding shares) since August 28th, 2024. 

Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update – Some New Information Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The loss of control over Greatview’s international business will lead to significant loss of Newjf’s interests,which is the most direct trigger of Newjf’s decision to initiate an acquisition of Greatview.
  • Newjf is actively fulfilling the Pre-Conditions and is now progressing smoothly. Newjf’s acquisition of Greatview is complied with the Anti-monopoly Law. Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition. 
  • Greatview urges shareholders to reject Newjf’s Offer is not for the benefit of the entire company. The “true motives” behind are questionable. We advise investors to take Newjf’s Offer seriously.

Bright Smart Securities (1428.HK) – Monday, Jul 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Bright Smart Securities is a successful brokerage firm in Hong Kong founded by Mow Lum Yip in 1995 and publicly listed in 2010
  • The company has shown steady growth since its IPO, with impressive increases in revenue and net income
  • Despite a challenging market environment in Hong Kong, Bright Smart has maintained stable results, grown its client base and assets under management, and pays out all earnings in dividends, with dividends exceeding net earnings over the last 5 years.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Boqi Environmental (2377 HK): Privatisation by Management?

By Arun George

  • China Boqi Environmental Hol (2377 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. The shares have been up 39% since 30 September. 
  • It is likely that management, representing 59.59% of outstanding shares, is seeking to privatise Boqi through a Cayman scheme. 
  • Sinopec, a pre-IPO investor potentially holding a blocking stake, is likely seeking to exit. At the last close, Boqi trades in line with the median peers’ P/B multiple. 

Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure

By Daniel Hellberg

  • We believe price momentum for global container carriers is unlikely to improve from here
  • As price momentum falters, carriers’ shares could continue to give back big gains
  • We would look for near-term opportunities to reduce or eliminate exposure to sector

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Daily Brief India: Godawari Power and Ispat, Ola Electric, Hyundai Motor India , SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: GPIL- Low Cost Mining with Upcoming Steel Plant
  • Ola Electric: Price-Cut Gamble, Social Media Blunders, Slipping Sales – Is the Spark Fading?
  • Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Index Inclusion Won’t Have Near-Term Impact
  • Prices Dip Fast In India; Tire Makers Suffer In First Half Of FY 2024 25
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Medco Energi, Tata Motors ADR


The Beat Ideas: GPIL- Low Cost Mining with Upcoming Steel Plant

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Godawari Power and Ispat (GODPI IN) is fully integrated steel manufacturer with a diverse portfolio encompassing iron ore mining, pellet production, sponge iron, steel billets, ferroalloys, and power generation.
  • Net Cash Balance Sheet, Mining Expansion, and upcoming Integrated Steel Plant provide huge potential for the captive consumption.
  • Execution of the capex plan within the stipulated timeframe is the key risk.

Ola Electric: Price-Cut Gamble, Social Media Blunders, Slipping Sales – Is the Spark Fading?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)‘s  aggressive price cuts on its S1 scooter aim to fend off competition and boost sales but risk alienating existing customers and damaging brand perception.
  • Ola Electric’s mishandling of online criticism—capped by its CEO’s heated spat with a well-known comedian—has tarnished the brand’s image.
  • With market share and stock prices dropping, concerns loom over how the company will fare after lock-up expiry in November/February and whether it will qualify for global index inclusion.

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Index Inclusion Won’t Have Near-Term Impact

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) is looking to raise around US$3.3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
  • HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about index inclusion.

Prices Dip Fast In India; Tire Makers Suffer In First Half Of FY 2024 25

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • NR prices surge over 33% YoY during April-August 2024
  • In FY 2024-25 Q1, operating margin of top five tire firms falls ~200 basis points to 14%
  • NR prices in downward trend in Oct amid a surge in supply

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Medco Energi, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: USS Co Ltd, Tokyo Metro, Rigaku Holdings, CELSYS, Nikon Corp, Nikkei 225, Medley and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • USS (4732 JP) – Small Offering on ‘Growth Darling’ – Buyback Offsets 50%
  • Tokyo Metro IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Tokyo Metro IPO – Will Price at the Top, but Isn’t Particularly Cheap
  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: TOPIX Inclusion in November; Global Indices in 2025
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2024)
  • Nikon (7731) | Eyeing the Future? Nikon and Essilor’s Partnership in AR
  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • EQD | The Nikkei Is At The Top But Could Rally A Bit More…
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 – Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored
  • Medley (4480 JP): Strong Base Business; No Fear from Fx; Digital Healthcare Push to Benefit


USS (4732 JP) – Small Offering on ‘Growth Darling’ – Buyback Offsets 50%

By Travis Lundy

  • Ubiquitous used car auction house USS Co Ltd (4732 JP) today announced MUFJ Bank’s Retirement Benefit Trust account would sell its 3.5% stake in an offering. 
  • Given how much cash the company has and how little cross-holding there is, this seems a bit odd, but they are doing a buyback for half the offer.
  • Small offer. Low ADV count. Well-liked by numerous foreign active holders. This should get taken easily.

Tokyo Metro IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Tokyo Metro set the IPO price range at 1,100 to 1,200 Yen per share. At the top end of the range, Tokyo Metro would raise 349 billion yen ($2.35 billion).
  • Our base case valuation of Tokyo Metro is implied target price of 1,178 yen per share. This is within the top end of the IPO price range (1,200 yen).
  • Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO. 

Tokyo Metro IPO – Will Price at the Top, but Isn’t Particularly Cheap

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)‘s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.4bn in its Japan IPO.
  • Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: TOPIX Inclusion in November; Global Indices in 2025

By Brian Freitas

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
  • At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1230/share, Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) will be valued at JPY 277.1bn (US$1.87bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX on 28 November while inclusion in global indices will take place in February and June next year.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Our long-term pre-event candidate CELSYS (3663 JP) has moved to TSE Prime. There will be a TOPIX Inclusion event on 30-Oct-24. The stock has outperformed TOPIX by 43% since July.
  • PKSHA Technology (3993 JP) and GENOVA (9341 JP) also moved to the TSE Prime market in September and will be having TOPIX Inclusion events at the end of October 2024.

Nikon (7731) | Eyeing the Future? Nikon and Essilor’s Partnership in AR

By Mark Chadwick

  • Essilor’s investment underscores Nikon’s undervalued potential, spotlighting its advanced optical technologies as strategic growth drivers in emerging high-tech sectors like AR.
  • Nikon’s established expertise in precision optics is highly adaptable for AR applications, positioning the company to capitalize on rising demand for wearable and immersive technology.
  • Increased collaboration with EssilorLuxottica may enhance Nikon’s R&D capabilities, promising new innovations and potential revenue streams, which could strengthen Nikon’s profitability and share value long-term.

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


EQD | The Nikkei Is At The Top But Could Rally A Bit More…

By Nico Rosti

  • In our last Nikkei 225 insight we predicted that the Nikkei 225 INDEX was overbought and about to pullback and that is exactly what happened the following week.
  • We also reiterated our view about the index’s overall trend, not looking good, and the fact that our seasonal quantitative model point to a coin flip scenario (up/down) for October.
  • This week the index gapped up and the current SHORT pattern model is showing a good chance to rally from here. Let’s check how high it can go.

EQD | Nikkei 225 – Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.
  • National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.
  • The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.

Medley (4480 JP): Strong Base Business; No Fear from Fx; Digital Healthcare Push to Benefit

By Tina Banerjee

  • Medley (4480 JP) is a safe bet for hiding from the negative impact of strengthening yen. The company should benefit from digital healthcare push from the newly elected Prime Minister.
  • Although Medley has reported mixed 2Q24 result, with robust topline and declining profitability, the long-term growth potential remains intact. The company guided for 43% YoY revenue growth in 2024.
  • Continued shortage of human resource, including doctors and nurses at medical care facilities in Japan and underpenetrated market remain the main growth engines of the company.

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