Smartkarma Daily Briefs

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs

By Angus Mackintosh

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an impromptu analyst call to address concerns over a potential sugar tax and the free milk program, both of which have yet to materialise.
The company is making a marked push into general trade, armed with a broader range of affordable products including Yoghurt Sticks, UHT milk, and ready-to-eat sausages.
Management remains confident about the outlook for 2025 with an ongoing recovery in dairy and an expansion into general trade, with a 10% increase in outlets covered. Top staples pick.

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Jan 23

Daily Brief India: HDB Financial Services Ltd, Vikran Engineering Limited, Greenko Energy Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth
Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks
HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Reputed Parent and Strong AUM Growth

By Sumeet Singh

HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks

By Rosita Fernandes

Vikran Engineering Limited (1635154D IN) (VEL) is planning to raise about US$119m through its upcoming India IPO.
Vikran Engineering Limited (VEL) based in Mumbai, operates as an Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) firm, focusing on power, water, and railway infrastructure projects.
According to CRISIL Report, VEL has experienced fastest growth in profitability, with a 236.94% CAGR growth in PAT and a 130.02% CAGR growth in EBITDA between FY22 to FY24.

HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping

By Sumeet Singh

HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy, New World Development, Softbank Group
In the US, treasuries climbed slightly yesterday, amid a lack of macro news and as President Donald Trump held back from implementing tariffs on his first day in office. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 1Y UST declining 1 bp to 4.28%, while the 10Y fell 5 bps to 4.58%. Similarly, equities rose on the back of optimism that Mr Trump’s policies will boost US corporations.
This came after he unveiled a new investment push for artificial intelligence led by Softbank Group, Open AI and Oracle Corp (see comment below). The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 6,049, while the Nasdaq was up 0.6% at 19,757.

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Jan 23

Daily Brief United States: Williams Sonoma, Venture Global LNG, Intel Corp, Crude Oil, Fifth Third Ban, PNC Financial Services Group, Occidental Petroleum, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings, First Citizens Bcshs Cl A, Bank Of New York Mellon and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?
The Drill: Strap in for Trump
Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers
PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers
[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)
First Citizens BancShares Inc.: Expanding Global Fund Banking Segment To Foster Viable Growth In Niche Sector! – Major Drivers
Could BNY Mellon’s Pershing Platform Be the Key to Outsized Returns In 2025? – Major Drivers

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.

Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal

The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.

Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?

Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.
Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.
The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.
While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.
Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

Fifth Third Bancorp’s Surprising Southeast Expansion Plan Could Shake Up Banking Rivals! – Major Drivers

Fifth Third Bancorp’s third-quarter 2024 earnings highlight a performance characterized by stability, strategic investments, and a focus on balanced growth in a dynamic economic environment.
The bank reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78 or $0.85 after excluding certain non-recurring items, outperforming previous guidance.
With a return on equity of 12.8%, Fifth Third has positioned itself as a leader among its peers.

PNC Financial Services Group: An Insight Into Its Asset Management & Fee Models & Other Major Drivers

PNC Financial Services Group, a major financial institution in the U.S., reported solid financial performance for Q4 2024 and for the entire fiscal year.
The company generated a net income of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, bringing the annual total to $6 billion, or $13.74 per share.
During the year, PNC benefited from fixed asset repricing, which substantially boosted its net interest income despite the lower demand for loans.

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

By Suhas Reddy

Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).
JPMorgan raised Occidental’s price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.
Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)

SailPoint, a company that delivers solutions to enable comprehensive identity security for the enterprise, filed for an IPO.
SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo who took the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
As of January 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, their ARR was $374.6 million, $520.1 million, and $681.8 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 44%, 39%, and 31%, respectively.

First Citizens BancShares Inc.: Expanding Global Fund Banking Segment To Foster Viable Growth In Niche Sector! – Major Drivers

First Citizens BancShares recently released its third-quarter 2024 earnings, highlighting both positive developments and challenges.
The adjusted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $45.87, supported by a resilient net interest margin despite declining accretion income.
Positively, the company reported stability and modest growth in its deposit base, especially within the commercial segment linked to the innovation economy.

Could BNY Mellon’s Pershing Platform Be the Key to Outsized Returns In 2025? – Major Drivers

Bank of New York Mellon’s (BNY) recent financial performance demonstrates notable achievements while also revealing areas that require attention.
In 2024, the company reported record-breaking revenue and net income, with revenue reaching $18.6 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, and net income climbing to $4.3 billion.
These figures correspond to a strong return on tangible common equity of 23%.

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Jan 23

Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Tencent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity
Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

By Arun George

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)‘s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday’s first close in light of CCASS movements.
My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong’s options?

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent’s approved game.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.

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Jan 23

Daily Brief Japan: Shinko Electric Industries, Softbank Group, Sun Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Mixi Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026
MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC.

Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026

By Aki Matsumoto

TSE is likely to raise the current Growth Market listing criteria of at least 500 million yen in tradable equity market capitalization, probably starting in April 2026.
Since listing examinations are already being conducted with the new criteria in mind, IPO reserves are being prepared with a larger market capitalization than before.
It is unclear how much will be raised, but companies will prepare for listing by increasing its market capitalization through the use of the secondary market and M&A.

MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives

By Astris Advisory Japan

Q1-2 FY3/25 results were ahead of guidance in our view, with underlying earnings growth stemming from improved profitability in the Digital Entertainment segment and robust sales growth in both the Sports and Lifestyle segments.
The governance issue disclosed in December 2024 involving improper transactions at subsidiary Chariloto appears to have been fully resolved with no contingent issues to resolve.
The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance, and we view the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 to be positive due to a combination of stabilizing performance with sustained successful collaborative activity with Monster Strike and seasonal uplift in the Sports segment.

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Jan 23

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Shinko Electric Industries, Lotes Co, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Softbank Group, Sun Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening
CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today
Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening

The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC.

Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

By Arun George

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)‘s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday’s first close in light of CCASS movements.
My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong’s options?

Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

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Jan 23

Daily Brief Industrials: HMM Co., Ltd., Vikran Engineering Limited, Grab Holdings , Deutsche Post and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus
Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks
HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan
Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – New Fleets and Finance
What’s News in Amsterdam – 22 January (Ahold Delhaize | InPost | PostNL | DHL)

Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus

By Sanghyun Park

HMM’s aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB’s BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.
HMM’s best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB’s PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.
The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.

Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO – Capitalizing On Core Competencies But With Concentration Risks

By Rosita Fernandes

Vikran Engineering Limited (1635154D IN) (VEL) is planning to raise about US$119m through its upcoming India IPO.
Vikran Engineering Limited (VEL) based in Mumbai, operates as an Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) firm, focusing on power, water, and railway infrastructure projects.
According to CRISIL Report, VEL has experienced fastest growth in profitability, with a 236.94% CAGR growth in PAT and a 130.02% CAGR growth in EBITDA between FY22 to FY24.

HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

By Douglas Kim

On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.
They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.
The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap.

Grab Holdings (GRAB IJ) – New Fleets and Finance

By Angus Mackintosh

Grab Holdings has announced that it will tie up with BYD (1211 HK) to source 50,000 EVs for its ride-hailing fleet, which will help to address car and driver shortages.
Drivers will be able to buy the vehicles at favourable prices, with competitive financing packages. Grab’s technology will be built-in to improve driver performance and provide data to improve services.
Grab is also stepping up its efforts in insurance, winning general insurance licences in Singapore and Malaysia, allowing it to offer tailored insurance products to drivers initially but customers later.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 22 January (Ahold Delhaize | InPost | PostNL | DHL)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Albert Heijn’s market share rose for the 6th consecutive year • DHL / InPost | DHL intends to double its APM footprint in Germany by 2030 • InPost / PostNL | residents of small municipalities champion in returns

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Jan 23

Daily Brief Utilities: Greenko Energy Holdings, Montauk Renewables and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK)

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy, New World Development, Softbank Group
In the US, treasuries climbed slightly yesterday, amid a lack of macro news and as President Donald Trump held back from implementing tariffs on his first day in office. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 1Y UST declining 1 bp to 4.28%, while the 10Y fell 5 bps to 4.58%. Similarly, equities rose on the back of optimism that Mr Trump’s policies will boost US corporations.
This came after he unveiled a new investment push for artificial intelligence led by Softbank Group, Open AI and Oracle Corp (see comment below). The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 6,049, while the Nasdaq was up 0.6% at 19,757.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK)

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.0%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.8%).
Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up 0.9%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.2% of the index) was up 4.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.2%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.3% of index) was up 2.7%.
Top 10 Performers: AZRE, DCFC, FGPHF, IDEX, TMC, IONR, GWTI, LITM, CLIR, EOSE

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Jan 23

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Korea Zinc, Venture Global LNG, Crude Oil, Occidental Petroleum, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Lithium Americas Argentina Cor, Tocvan Ventures, VAALCO Energy, Geopark Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole
Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
The Drill: Strap in for Trump
[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil
Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production
Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors
TOC: Surface Work Expands Zones & Drilling Continues
Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good 4Q24 WI production and sales
GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Low 2025 production on strategy shift but 50% increase in Argentina’s 2P reserves

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)‘s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday’s first close in light of CCASS movements.
My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong’s options?

Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

By Douglas Kim

The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal

The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.
While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.
Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

By Suhas Reddy

Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).
JPMorgan raised Occidental’s price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.
Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.

Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production

By Vinod Nedumudy

Malaysia’s rubber imports clock 103,650 tons in Nov
SMR 20 secures lion’s share in rubber exports at 60.4%
Signs MoU with Thailand for sustainable rubber production

Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

By Massif Capital Research

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.
In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.
Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.

TOC: Surface Work Expands Zones & Drilling Continues

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • Tocvan announced surface exploration results for 188 rock chip samples and nine infill soil samples at the Gran Pilar Project.
• Today’s results confirm four new target zones spanning 1.8km by 1.0km and early sampling in another area indicate a large-scale system.
• Four drill holes totalling 408m have been completed with assays pending.

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good 4Q24 WI production and sales

By Auctus Advisors

• 4Q24 WI production and sales were respectively 24.7-25.2 mboe/d and 23.6-24.1 mboe/d; which is in the middle of the guidance range of 23.8-26.7 mboe/d for production and 22.9-25.3 mboe/d for sales.
• 2025 should be an important year for value creation with potential reserves additions in Gabon and the FPSO upgrade in Cote d’Ivoire.
• The detailed 2025 programme will be disclosed by March.

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Low 2025 production on strategy shift but 50% increase in Argentina’s 2P reserves

By Auctus Advisors

• 4Q24 production was 31,489 boe/d.
Excluding Argentina (as the acquisition has not completed yet), this is ~1.4 mboe/d below our forecasts.
The shortfall is primarily due to CPO-5, which experienced more blockades than anticipated, resulting in actual production of 6.4 mbbl/d compared to our expectation of 7.5 mbbl/d.

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Jan 23

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shinko Electric Industries, United Microelectron Sp Adr, LG CNS, Tencent, Intel Corp, Lg Innotek, Mixi Inc, Silicon Motion Technology, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
UMC. Now I’m Interested…
Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea
Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity
Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Taiwan cable cut raises concerns.
MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives
Silicon Motion: Memory Controllers Emerging as Strategic Pillar for Global HPC and AI Leadership
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC.

UMC. Now I’m Interested…

By William Keating

UMC reported Q424 revenues of NT$60,386 million, flat sequentially and in line with guidance.
For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to NT$232,303 million, representing an increase of 4.4% YoY.
Share price at a 4 year low and the outlook is still tepid, but almost $6 billion CapEx invested during the downturn years will pay dividends in the coming years..

Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea

By Douglas Kim

The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.
New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date.
Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs.

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent’s approved game.

Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?

Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.
Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.
The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Taiwan cable cut raises concerns.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan cable cut near China raises concerns about geopolitical tensions and gray zone tactics in the region.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics and SoulBrain’s collaboration on advanced glass substrates aims for mass production by 2027.
India drives semiconductor aspirations with GaN and SiC technology, showcasing its commitment to technological advancements in the industry.

MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives

By Astris Advisory Japan

Q1-2 FY3/25 results were ahead of guidance in our view, with underlying earnings growth stemming from improved profitability in the Digital Entertainment segment and robust sales growth in both the Sports and Lifestyle segments.
The governance issue disclosed in December 2024 involving improper transactions at subsidiary Chariloto appears to have been fully resolved with no contingent issues to resolve.
The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance, and we view the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 to be positive due to a combination of stabilizing performance with sustained successful collaborative activity with Monster Strike and seasonal uplift in the Sports segment.

Silicon Motion: Memory Controllers Emerging as Strategic Pillar for Global HPC and AI Leadership

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

What is PCIe 5.0 and Why SIMO is Poised to Expand Market Share with PCIe 5.0
PCIe 5.0 and Beyond — Importance for Enterprise HPC and AI Data Centers
Looking Ahead: MaxLinear Arbitration in 2H25E — We Believe SIMO Likely to Win Its Termination Fee Plus Additional Award for Additional Damages

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — Thoma Bravo Backed Cybersecurity Company Ready for IPO (Again)