Daily Briefs

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.

Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.

By Devi Subhakesan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) ‘s IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.
US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.
Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like Mixue Group (2097 HK) given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

A “Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)” pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade.
OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.
While OOIL’s 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC’s 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC’s 34.6%. SITC’s dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL’s down.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Apr-2025): HK Admiralty office floor sells at 17-year low.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Hong Kong office floor in Admiralty sells at a 17-year low, reflecting challenging market conditions in the region.
Brookfield strengthens APAC logistics presence with $588M NZ joint venture, highlighting growth opportunities in the sector.
Manulife IM acquires Sydney Logistics Park from KKR and Centennial for $35M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Country Garden
In the US, the 1-year New York Fed inflation expectations edged up to 3.58% (3.26% e / 3.13% p).
Treasuries rallied yesterday, unwinding part of last week’s decline, after the Trump administration granted a temporary tariff reprieve on smartphones and consumer electronics.

Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The expansion space of BenQ is severely limited as the market has been saturated in Jiangsu Province. Due to DRG, future revenue/net profit growth would continue to be under pressure.
Low profit margin of general hospitals is a common problem in this industry due to pain points of business model.It’s difficult to achieve improvement.Investors need to be aware of this.
BenQ’s valuation should be lower than Hygeia due to weaker profitability, smaller revenue scale, lower growth outlook.Post-money valuation before IPO of US$375 million (or about RMB2.7 billion) is already expensive

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Apr 16

Daily Brief United States: Altera, Base Oil, S&P 500 INDEX, BioStem Technologies , Ensysce Biosciences , Featherless.ai and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
BSEM: Revenue and Earnings Blow Away Estimates
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April
ENSC: Positive Overdose Protection Data
Featherless.ai secures US$5M to make AI inference faster and cheaper | e27

Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount

By William Keating

Intel yesterday announced that it was selling a 51% stake of its Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion
The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to acquire the company over a decade ago
Altera’s CEO, Intel veteran Sandra Rivera, will be replaced with a new CEO, Raghib Hussain, formerly president of Products and Technologies at Marvell

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.
Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.
Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

By Joe Jasper

Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ.
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April

Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.
Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils demand could face more pressure from concern about growing disconnect between base oils prices and crude oil and feedstock prices.
Widening base oil premium to feedstock and diesel prices points to sudden improvement in demand and tightening supply.
Timing of surge in base oils premium suggests it is linked more to slump in crude oil prices than to marked change in supply-demand fundamentals.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more muted as unusually extreme market volatility boosts incentive for buyers to keep inventories at lower levels.
Uncertainty about outlook and sharp fall in crude oil prices so far this month add to incentive to hold back.
Blenders could face lower-than-usual inventories at start of Q2 2025 because of tight supply and firm demand in Q1 2025.

BSEM: Revenue and Earnings Blow Away Estimates

BioStem Technologies is a leading innovator focused on harnessing the natural properties of perinatal tissue in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of allografts for regenerative therapies.
The company announced its 4Q and full year 2024 results.
The company continues to execute at a high level by posting record revenue and earnings that beat expectations.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year.
Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India.
US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.

ENSC: Positive Overdose Protection Data

Ensysce Biosciences is committed to finding a solution to the opioid crisis plaguing the US and other developed countries around the world.
Through its proprietary TAAP technology Ensysce is in the process of receiving approval for an abuse-resistant yet still pain-relieving opioid.
The company announced that data from its study of its overdose protection drug showed the compound to be effective and safe-furthering the case for FDA approval of this much-needed treatment.

Featherless.ai secures US$5M to make AI inference faster and cheaper | e27

By e27

Featherless.ai, a US-based serverless AI inference platform, has raised US$5 million in seed funding.
The investment comes from a notable list of global investors, including Airbus Ventures, 500 Global, Kickstart Ventures, HF0, Panache Ventures, and Oakseed Ventures.
With the new funding, Featherless.ai intends to advance research and development into next-generation AI architectures to lower inference costs, potentially enabling AI deployment on lower-cost hardware.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Industrials: Lotte Global Logistics, SITC International, De La Rue PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Lotte Global Logistics IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)
A Note-Worthy Exit: Atlas Takes Over De La Rue

Lotte Global Logistics IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

Lotte Global Logistics (LGG KS) aims to raise around US$140m in its Korea IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
Lotte Global Logistics is a logistics and shipping company engaged in a comprehensive logistics service business including courier service, land transportation, 3PL, port loading and unloading, and international logistics.
In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the IPO valuations.

China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

A “Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)” pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade.
OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.
While OOIL’s 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC’s 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC’s 34.6%. SITC’s dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL’s down.

A Note-Worthy Exit: Atlas Takes Over De La Rue

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Atlas’s offer for perennial takeover target De La Rue PLC (DLAR LN) is underpinned by a historic brand, strong order book, and post-sale cash buffer, with pension resolution and execution certainty.
The £263m all-cash bid implies a 12.47x EV/EBITDA multiple, offering shareholders a 130p exit, cum-dividend, strong execution certainty, and over 40% committed shareholder support.
With 91.7% market-implied completion probability and an annualized return of 4.5% at 128.5p, the deal presents an attractive, de-risked arbitrage opportunity with limited downside and credible upside closure.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, Lynas Corp Ltd, Anglo American, Moil Ltd, Base Oil, S&P 500 INDEX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side
Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports
Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!
MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April

The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side

This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of >2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with >US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.

Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports

By David Blennerhassett

China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.
China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.
Apart from China, the world’s largest refining – not just the largest miner – who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?

Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!

By Baptista Research

The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes.
Safety remains a priority, yet the company faced three fatalities, underscoring ongoing safety challenges.
Leadership changes have impacted the structure, with board addition Anne Wade contributing her expertise to strategic committees.

MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported

By Rahul Jain

MOIL is India’s largest manganese ore producer, contributing over 50% of the country’s production. Its dominant position provides a competitive advantage in meeting domestic demand.
Planned a capex of Rs24 billion until FY30. This investment will support brownfield expansions, greenfield projects, and modernization efforts, including shaft-sinking projects at Balaghat and Gumgaon mines.
Valuations: Trades at a marginal premium to historic valuations. Debt-free balance sheet, 25yr+ mine life gives confidence over LT execution of expansion plans.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.
Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.
Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

By Joe Jasper

Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ.
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April

Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.
Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more muted as unusually extreme market volatility boosts incentive for buyers to keep inventories at lower levels.
Uncertainty about outlook and sharp fall in crude oil prices so far this month add to incentive to hold back.
Blenders could face lower-than-usual inventories at start of Q2 2025 because of tight supply and firm demand in Q1 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils demand could face more pressure from concern about growing disconnect between base oils prices and crude oil and feedstock prices.
Widening base oil premium to feedstock and diesel prices points to sudden improvement in demand and tightening supply.
Timing of surge in base oils premium suggests it is linked more to slump in crude oil prices than to marked change in supply-demand fundamentals.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year.
Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India.
US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Apr 16

Daily Brief Industrials: Lotte Global Logistics, SITC International, De La Rue PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Lotte Global Logistics IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)
A Note-Worthy Exit: Atlas Takes Over De La Rue

Lotte Global Logistics IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

Lotte Global Logistics (LGG KS) aims to raise around US$140m in its Korea IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
Lotte Global Logistics is a logistics and shipping company engaged in a comprehensive logistics service business including courier service, land transportation, 3PL, port loading and unloading, and international logistics.
In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the IPO valuations.

China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

A “Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)” pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade.
OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.
While OOIL’s 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC’s 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC’s 34.6%. SITC’s dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL’s down.

A Note-Worthy Exit: Atlas Takes Over De La Rue

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Atlas’s offer for perennial takeover target De La Rue PLC (DLAR LN) is underpinned by a historic brand, strong order book, and post-sale cash buffer, with pension resolution and execution certainty.
The £263m all-cash bid implies a 12.47x EV/EBITDA multiple, offering shareholders a 130p exit, cum-dividend, strong execution certainty, and over 40% committed shareholder support.
With 91.7% market-implied completion probability and an annualized return of 4.5% at 128.5p, the deal presents an attractive, de-risked arbitrage opportunity with limited downside and credible upside closure.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 16

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung Electronics, Nexchip Semiconductor , Horizon Robotics, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Altera, Freelancer Ltd, Serverworks, Featherless.ai, BT Group PLC, Soluna Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

China’s Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals – Key Impact on Korean Companies
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference
Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount
Freelancer — Positive start to the year
Serverworks (4434 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
Featherless.ai secures US$5M to make AI inference faster and cheaper | e27
BT Group: Initiation of Coverage- Expansion of Fiber Network Infrastructure To Up Their Game!
Soluna Holdings, Inc – Warded Patent Points to More Growth After 80% Y/Y Revenue Growth in 2024

China’s Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals – Key Impact on Korean Companies

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss some of the key beneficiaries in Korea that could actually stand to gain from such export restrictions.
We also discuss other Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by this move by the Chinese government.
Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire semiconductor and EVs value-chain in Korea.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

By Patrick Liao

Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) work on Intel Corp (INTC US)‘s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what’s the reasoning behind this?
Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?

Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount

By William Keating

Intel yesterday announced that it was selling a 51% stake of its Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion
The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to acquire the company over a decade ago
Altera’s CEO, Intel veteran Sandra Rivera, will be replaced with a new CEO, Raghib Hussain, formerly president of Products and Technologies at Marvell

Freelancer — Positive start to the year

By Edison Investment Research

After reporting positive momentum in Q424, Freelancer saw year-on-year growth in gross marketplace volume (GMV) and revenue in Q125 across both divisions. The company also generated positive operating profit and cash flow in the quarter. We view the adoption of AI (by Freelancer, by freelancers and by customers) and new integrations and partnerships within Escrow as key drivers of growth and profitability during our forecast period.

Serverworks (4434 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

Serverworks’ FY02/25 revenue was JPY35.7bn (+29.8% YoY), exceeding forecasts with a 100.4% achievement rate.
Cloud Integration revenue reached JPY2.3bn (+23.7% YoY), driven by demand for cloud transitions and hybrid strategies.
Resale services revenue was JPY23.3bn (+34.0% YoY), supported by increased AWS usage and new customer acquisitions.

Featherless.ai secures US$5M to make AI inference faster and cheaper | e27

By e27

Featherless.ai, a US-based serverless AI inference platform, has raised US$5 million in seed funding.
The investment comes from a notable list of global investors, including Airbus Ventures, 500 Global, Kickstart Ventures, HF0, Panache Ventures, and Oakseed Ventures.
With the new funding, Featherless.ai intends to advance research and development into next-generation AI architectures to lower inference costs, potentially enabling AI deployment on lower-cost hardware.

BT Group: Initiation of Coverage- Expansion of Fiber Network Infrastructure To Up Their Game!

By Baptista Research

BT Group’s half-year performance reflects a mixed set of results, with progress in strategic priorities met with challenges in certain segments.
The company continued to focus on its five strategic priorities, which include enhancing its UK presence, accelerating fiber build-out, reducing costs, and improving customer satisfaction.
Notably, the Openreach division achieved significant milestones in its fiber build-out and connections, surpassing expectations, and maintaining its market-leading position with a strong take-up rate of 35%.

Soluna Holdings, Inc – Warded Patent Points to More Growth After 80% Y/Y Revenue Growth in 2024

By Water Tower Research

Soluna recently released its March business update, in which the company highlighted a major milestone.
Soluna was awarded its second US patent, which expands the scope of its modular data center design and is key to transforming wasted energy into sustainable computing.
Other highlights of the update included Soluna announcing that 2024 revenue was up 80.5% Y/Y to $38 million.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Health Care: BioStem Technologies , BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp., Ensysce Biosciences , Oryzon Genomics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

BSEM: Revenue and Earnings Blow Away Estimates
Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
ENSC: Positive Overdose Protection Data
Oryzon Genomics — First patient dosed in iadademstat + ICI SCLC trial

BSEM: Revenue and Earnings Blow Away Estimates

BioStem Technologies is a leading innovator focused on harnessing the natural properties of perinatal tissue in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of allografts for regenerative therapies.
The company announced its 4Q and full year 2024 results.
The company continues to execute at a high level by posting record revenue and earnings that beat expectations.

Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The expansion space of BenQ is severely limited as the market has been saturated in Jiangsu Province. Due to DRG, future revenue/net profit growth would continue to be under pressure.
Low profit margin of general hospitals is a common problem in this industry due to pain points of business model.It’s difficult to achieve improvement.Investors need to be aware of this.
BenQ’s valuation should be lower than Hygeia due to weaker profitability, smaller revenue scale, lower growth outlook.Post-money valuation before IPO of US$375 million (or about RMB2.7 billion) is already expensive

ENSC: Positive Overdose Protection Data

Ensysce Biosciences is committed to finding a solution to the opioid crisis plaguing the US and other developed countries around the world.
Through its proprietary TAAP technology Ensysce is in the process of receiving approval for an abuse-resistant yet still pain-relieving opioid.
The company announced that data from its study of its overdose protection drug showed the compound to be effective and safe-furthering the case for FDA approval of this much-needed treatment.

Oryzon Genomics — First patient dosed in iadademstat + ICI SCLC trial

By Edison Investment Research

Oryzon Genomics has announced that the first patient has been dosed in iadademstat’s Phase I/II trial, sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, (NCI) in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (SCLC). The trial is evaluating lead oncology candidate iadademstat in combination with an immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI), either atezolizumab or durvalumab, with primary objectives focussed on safety, tolerability, dose-finding and efficacy. Should the results of this trial be positive, they may support Oryzon’s plans for its STELLAR programme, a randomised, multi-centre Phase II study of iadademstat in combination with a checkpoint inhibitor for first-line extensive-stage SCLC. Management has indicated that additional data from STELLAR could aid an accelerated approval pathway.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Financials: HDFC Bank, Urban Logistics REIT, Emperor Intl Hldg, Country Garden Holdings Co, FP Partner, Health In Tech, Kobo Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought
Consolidating Yield: LondonMetric’s Possible Offer for Urban Logistics
Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Apr-2025): HK Admiralty office floor sells at 17-year low.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
FP Partner (7388 JP): Q1 FY11/25 flash update
Health In Tech Inc – To broaden its TAM
KRI: Strategic Foothold in Côte d’Ivoire

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

By Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).
Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.

Consolidating Yield: LondonMetric’s Possible Offer for Urban Logistics

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Strategic merger between LondonMetric and Urban Logistics offers scale, diversification, and internal management benefits, with a modest premium to pre-announcement price and meaningful potential for operational synergies and cost savings.
Scheme of arrangement could complete by July 2025 if approved; long-term investors may benefit from enhanced dividend yield, greater liquidity, and sustained growth in logistics-focused real estate under unified management.
Long SHED at 138.6p to capture 8.1% gross spread; attractive upside with manageable downside risk and strong board support; reassess on firm offer announcement by 9 May 2025.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Apr-2025): HK Admiralty office floor sells at 17-year low.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Hong Kong office floor in Admiralty sells at a 17-year low, reflecting challenging market conditions in the region.
Brookfield strengthens APAC logistics presence with $588M NZ joint venture, highlighting growth opportunities in the sector.
Manulife IM acquires Sydney Logistics Park from KKR and Centennial for $35M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Country Garden
In the US, the 1-year New York Fed inflation expectations edged up to 3.58% (3.26% e / 3.13% p).
Treasuries rallied yesterday, unwinding part of last week’s decline, after the Trump administration granted a temporary tariff reprieve on smartphones and consumer electronics.

FP Partner (7388 JP): Q1 FY11/25 flash update

Revenue for Q1 FY11/25 was JPY8.3bn, flat YoY, with operating profit at JPY798mn, down 41.5% YoY.
The number of sales representatives increased to 2,546, while policy transfer agreements decreased to 4,981, down 27,362 YoY.
New policies totaled 56,931, down 1.1% YoY, with new customers at 35,339, up 0.7% YoY.

Health In Tech Inc – To broaden its TAM

To broaden its TAM, HIT began beta testing a large-group 3rd-party AI-powered underwriting platform in 4Q24 & is optimistic about its prospects, based on interest generated to-date.
In 1Q25, the company delivered solutions to large employers, including one with 1k+ employees.
HIT believes the infrastructure it has established position it for strong growth, as it broadens its TAM and expands its offerings, often via collaborations such as one formed recently with DialCare to integrate DialCare’s virtual primary care, therapy, and psychiatry services into Health In Tech’s self-funded health plan offerings.

KRI: Strategic Foothold in Côte d’Ivoire

By Atrium Research

Kobo is a gold exploration company with a focus in Côte d’Ivoire, a country getting increasing attention from the mid-tier and major firms.
KRI’s flagship asset is ~7km from Perseus’ Yaouré gold mine (~250Koz Au produced in 2024) which will need new ore supply by 2030.
Kobo has a massive land package totalling 1,441km2 (590km2 permitted and the remaining pending) making it an attractive takeout target.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, Fast Retailing, LG Electronics India, Chagee Holdings, Takashimaya, The Keepers Holdings, Associated British Foods, Vector Inc, Demae-Can Co., Ltd., San Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case
Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.
Takashimaya (8233 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25
Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!
Vector Inc (6058 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
San Holdings (9628 JP) – Century-Strong Enterprise Focused on Growth

The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced their deal whereby Tsuruha merges with Welcia in December, and Aeon gains control of MERGECO.
Orbis Investments – owner of 9.7% of shares out – complained. I think with good reason. Tsuruha is trading a little expensive to the ratio, but there’s 7.5mos to go.
Interestingly, there’s real skew on this trade. It’s not overly complicated, and it is worthwhile thinking about it.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.

LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

LG Electronics India (123D IN)/LGEIL, a subsidiary of LG Electronics (066570 KS), aims to raise up to US$1.5 billion through a secondary offering (15% of outstanding shares).
In LG Electronics India IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on bottom-quartile revenue growth, revenue decline in the largest product category, dividends to the parent far exceeding FCF and significant share overhang.

Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.

By Devi Subhakesan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) ‘s IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.
US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.
Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like Mixue Group (2097 HK) given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.

Takashimaya (8233 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

Total operating revenue for FY02/25 was JPY1.03tn, up 8.5% YoY, with operating profit at JPY57.5bn, up 25.2%.
Domestic and Overseas Department Stores, along with Finance and Contract and Design segments, drove YoY revenue and profit growth.
FY02/26 forecast anticipates revenue and profit growth, led by Domestic and Overseas Department Store segments, despite some segment challenges.

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25

By Sameer Taneja

The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) reported Q4 2024 revenues/profits of 11.8%/23.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they provided a outlook for FY25.
For FY24, the company reported 13.6%/21.3% YoY revenue/profit growth, led by a 14% YoY expansion in volumes. The company declared a 0.12 peso/share dividend (~4.7% dividend yield).
Trading at 10.6x FY24 PE, net cash, >20% ROE, and a 4.7% dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption.

Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial profit and cash flow improvements across its diversified portfolio.
Operating profit witnessed a 38% increase, with adjusted earnings per share climbing by 39%.
Cash generation rose to GBP 1.4 billion, marking an increase of GBP 1.1 billion from the previous year, which signifies positive operational and financial strides.

Vector Inc (6058 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY59.3bn (+0.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY8.0bn (+15.7% YoY), and net income at JPY4.2bn (-10.4% YoY).
PR and Advertising segment saw significant profit increase due to reversal of doubtful accounts provisions, despite flat revenue.
Direct Marketing business impacted by food safety concerns, resulting in lower revenue and profit, despite record high sales recovery.

Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update

Revenue was JPY20.9bn, a decrease of 18.3% YoY, with operating and recurring losses both at JPY1.3bn.
Gross merchandise value was JPY84.8bn, down 13.1% YoY, with 30.4mn orders and 4.92mn active users.
GPM improved to 20.3% for 1H, with operating expenses totaling JPY12.3bn, reflecting cost optimization efforts.

San Holdings (9628 JP) – Century-Strong Enterprise Focused on Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

SAN HOLDINGS is the largest domestic pure-play End-of-Life service provider, with a network of 262 funeral halls spanning 15 prefectures in Japan.
Despite the unmistakable demographic tailwind, intensifying competition has resulted in the company accelerating its strategic growth priorities with the landmark acquisition of peer Kizuna Holdings in September 2024.
Approaching its centenary in FY3/32, the company plans to build a nationwide operation fuelled by M&A and to expand its service offering.

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Apr 16

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Midea Group, Makino Milling Machine Co, Tsuruha Holdings, Suzhou Kematek, JX Advanced Metals, Fast Retailing, Lynas Corp Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities
Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Proposes Countermeasures
The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination
UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt
CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities

On Friday, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced the Tsuruha/Welcia merger and Partial Tender to get Aeon to 50+% of NEWCO.
The scrip ratio short-changes Tsuruha shareholders. The subsequent partial offer to raise Aeon’s stake above 50% is low too. 9.7% shareholder Orbis is already out with a complaint.
But… all is not lost. There are some interesting angles here to complain.

Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group listed in September 2024 by selling 650.85m shares (including the overallotment option) and raising HK$35.7bn (US$4.6bn). A large part of the offering was allocated to cornerstone investors.
Given the large company market cap and a free float that met the inclusion threshold, Midea Group (300 HK) was added to global indices via Fast Entry.
The lock-up expiry on cornerstone investors will increase the float for the stock in the global indices and Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) over the next two months.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Proposes Countermeasures

By Arun George

The Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) Board has proposed introducing countermeasures to nudge Nidec Corp (6594 JP) to delay the start of the tender to 9 May.
The countermeasure was likely needed to facilitate a competing offer rather than force Nidec to provide the required information and delay the start (Nidec is still evaluating the request).
Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. The Board claims that there is a sufficient probability of a competing proposal.

The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced their deal whereby Tsuruha merges with Welcia in December, and Aeon gains control of MERGECO.
Orbis Investments – owner of 9.7% of shares out – complained. I think with good reason. Tsuruha is trading a little expensive to the ratio, but there’s 7.5mos to go.
Interestingly, there’s real skew on this trade. It’s not overly complicated, and it is worthwhile thinking about it.

UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt

By Phil Rush

Signs that statistical effects might lower the unemployment rate in the Spring have weakened, with stability at 4.4% now more likely amid stagnant underlying trends.
Levels remain healthy and redundancies are low despite falling vacancies, suggesting resilience survives rather than thrives. Rapid wage growth is more problematic.
Dovish hopes that excesses will break soon, aided by destructive US trade policy, keep the BoE on track to cut in May. Sterling strength also adds disinflationary space.

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side

This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of >2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with >US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)