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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: BFI Finance Indonesia, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Back on an Even Keel
  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Back on an Even Keel

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance‘s 3Q2023 results reflected the lingering impact of May’s Malware incident which interrupted collections but this situation has now been remedied and the company can resume rebuilding its book.
  • 4Q2023 will likely see further write-offs but an improvement in credit costs but the company will remain cautious on building its book with a full recovery expected in 2H2024. 
  • BFI Finance remains the best-quality multi-finance company in Indonesia, with a low cost of funds and a differentiated target market of used 4W and 2W non-dealer loans. Valuations are attractive. 

Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Adani Green Energy
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief India: Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Adani Green Energy
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Tingyi Holding, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Vinda International and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play
  • Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Tingyi Holding
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar
  • Vinda International (3331 HK):  Business Recovering As Expected

Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

By Eric Chen

  • The increasing dominance of retailers (off/online) in the US consumer sector measured by market cap over last three decades tellingly illustrates the long term potential of Alibaba in China.
  • While we believe consensus underestimates bottom line for 2QFY24, investors will likely focus on the outlook for 2024, with growth of Taobao/Tmall group remaining key share price driver.
  • Investors pulling out of Alibaba due to geopolitical risks remind me of how ESG drove investments away from oil & gas years ago and eventually led to the latter’s outperformance.  

Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stellantis, a merger between France’s PSA with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAM BQ), is buying a 17% stake (14.53% fully diluted) in Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK). 
  • Leapmotor will issue 194mn H shares at HK$43.8/share, a 19% premium to last close, in a HK$8.51bn transaction. Stellantis will also hold a 51% stake in newly formed JV. 
  • Stellantis is paying a chunky 3.64x market cap-trailing-revenue; but ~2.25x forward revs, which compares to the average for key peers of 1.9x.

Asian Dividend Gems: Tingyi Holding

By Douglas Kim

  • Shares of Tingyi Holding are oversold. It has high dividend yield and attractive valuations. Its core instant noodles and beverage businesses are turning around this year. 
  • The consensus expects DPS of HKD 0.62 for Tingyi in 2023 which would suggest a dividend yield of 6.1%. Tingyi Holding’s dividend yield averaged 5% annually from 2018 to 2022.
  • Tingyi’s “Master Kong” instant noodle is one of the best known brands in China. The company is also one of the largest producers and distributors of beverages in China. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Golden Solar New Energy Technology Holdings (1121 HK).

Vinda International (3331 HK):  Business Recovering As Expected

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Vinda International (3331 HK) announced 3Q23 results, with net profit up 37% yoy as margins started to recover. 
  • Reported sales growth picked up speed, growing at 8% yoy (vs. 4% growth in 1H23), and 12% at constant exchange rates (vs. 10% growth in 1H23). 
  • More importantly, gross margin recovered quarter-on-quarter from a 0.2ppt decline in 2Q23 to a 2.3ppt increase in 3Q23.

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Japan: Japan Post Bank, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Misumi Group, Resona Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us
  • Takeda: Guidance Lowered Due to Setbacks in Clinical Trials but Pipeline Development Continues
  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted
  • Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course
  • Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) gets a dramatic upweight in TOPIX on Monday 30 October. There is a LOT of stock to buy. Call it US$2.2bn. 
  • Shares have to come from someplace. Basically it will all come from retail or from those who pre-positioned themselves in the stock (buying from retail). Some could come from short-sellers.
  • The stock WAS not cheap vs regional banks (what I see as their best set of comps) and the Q2 Unrealised Loss on Securities has ballooned. But care is needed.

Takeda: Guidance Lowered Due to Setbacks in Clinical Trials but Pipeline Development Continues

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda’s 2QFY03/2024 revenues increased 4.1% YoY beating consensus estimates by 6%. However, Takeda reported an operating loss of ¥49.3bn for the quarter due to impairment losses.
  • As we expected, recent setback in some of Takeda’s clinical trials have led to write-downs and triggered a downward revision to full-year profit guidance.
  • There has been excessive price reaction to these setbacks, however, Takeda continues to progress with its pipeline development with some newly launched drugs showing great potential.

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.
  • Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.
  • Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.

Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course

By Victor Galliano

  • So far in 4Q23, Japanese banks’ share prices have registered a mixed performance, in part due to the unsettled global market conditions; yet the Japanese bond yield curve keeps steepening
  • We assess the top twelve Japanese commercial banks by market capitalisation, and we believe that Japanese banks remain good value with, a rare thing, improving fundamentals
  • Ahead of the September results, we stick with our buys on Resona, Mizuho and SMFG; Resona has lagged deserving to re-rate further, and we add Hachijuni to our buy list

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
  • MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
  • Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 20th): Westpac and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 20th): Westpac, ANZ, Macquarie, Insurance Austra, Liontown
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 27th): AIA, Kuaishou Technology, Dongfeng Motor

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 20th): Westpac, ANZ, Macquarie, Insurance Austra, Liontown

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 20th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.2bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, ANZ, Macquarie, Insurance Austra, Liontown, Bluescope Steel.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 27th): AIA, Kuaishou Technology, Dongfeng Motor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 27th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), HSBC (5 HK).

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
  • MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
  • Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Korean Air – Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Air – Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval

Korean Air – Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval

By Neil Glynn

  • Difficult for merger to receive approval in Europe, US and potentially Japan. But Korean Air financial recovery positions it well for the future.
  • Asiana vulnerable given it continues to struggle to make money, while its net debt is higher than 2019 revenues. South Korean precedent of focusing on one national champion in shipping.
  • Most M&A destroys value. Strong argument for Korean continuing alone given stronger opportunities should Asiana be forced to retrench/cease ops, while Delta JV developmental potential attractive.

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Medco Energi, Cobalt Blue Holdings, Akora Resources, Resources & Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023
  • Cobalt Blue Holdings – Mining-To-Refining Cobalt for Global Battery Supply Chain
  • Akora Resources Ltd – Developing High-Grade Iron Ore for the Green Steel Future
  • Resources & Energy Group – Nickel, Cobalt and Gold Focus in Western Australia

Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Adani Green Energy
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…

Cobalt Blue Holdings – Mining-To-Refining Cobalt for Global Battery Supply Chain

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cobalt Blue Holdings Ltd (ASX:COB) is a mining and mineral processing company focused onadvancing cobalt mining and refining operations in Australia.
  • The company is developing the Broken Hill Cobalt Project (BHCP) in far west NSW and concurrently in planning on a Kwinanacobalt refinery in WA with a definitive feasibility study underway.
  • Cobalt Blue Holdings wasfounded in 2016 and listed on the ASX in early 2017. 

Akora Resources Ltd – Developing High-Grade Iron Ore for the Green Steel Future

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Akora Resources Ltd (ASX:AKO) is an exploration company engaged in the development of three iron ore projects, Bekisopa, Tratramarina and Ambodilafa, in Madagascar.
  • The company has initially focused on Bekisopa, which has a maiden resource of 194.7Mt with the potential for significant high-grade lump direct ship ore (DSO).
  • The Indicated DSO is 4.4Mt at 61% Fe, “Green Steel” 34Mt at 58% DTR to 69% Fe concentrate. 

Resources & Energy Group – Nickel, Cobalt and Gold Focus in Western Australia

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Resources & Energy Group Ltd (ASX:REZ) is an exploration company engaged in the development of its flagship East Menzies gold project, 130km north of Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.
  • The company has been operating as a gold, nickel and cobalt exploration and development company since 2015 and currently has gold and silver resources of 183koz gold and 862koz silver.
  • REZ recently announced (17-Oct) that optimisation studies at the Goodenough and Maranoa gold prospects within the East Menzies district had confirmed an opportunity for a low cost, near- term open cut mining operation at Goodenough, which had previously been worked as an underground resource with historic production of ~21,532t at 14.91g/t. 

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Misumi Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.
  • Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.
  • Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Misumi Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.
  • Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.
  • Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.

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