Category

Daily Briefs

Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): IPO Pipeline to Cross 200 Bn (>142% YoY) Pesos For 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): IPO Pipeline to Cross 200 Bn (>142% YoY) Pesos For 2025
  • BYD (1211 HK): Flat Sales Volume in August and Lower Margin in 1H25
  • KT&G: Selling 57 Real Estate Properties to Generate 1 Trillion Won in Additional Cash Flow
  • Golden Throat (6896 HK): China’s Leading Lozenge Maker at 10x P/E and a 10% Dividend Yield
  • ICLN’s Upward Momentum to Last Longer as Investors Pivot to Clean Energy
  • Nitto Boseki (Nittobo, TSE:3110) – Expansion Unlocks AI-Linked Growth, but Execution Key
  • The Beat Ideas: Nalco’s ₹30,000 Crore Expansion
  • Pinduoduo’s Growth Slows as Competition, Tariffs Hit Temu Expansion
  • GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick
  • Business Breakdown: Akums Drugs – Market Leader with Global Ambitions

Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): IPO Pipeline to Cross 200 Bn (>142% YoY) Pesos For 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • With Maynilad Water Services Inc.’s largest IPO in the Philippines, slated for October 2025, targeting up to ₱45.8 billion in total raise, PSE’s IPO pipeline will exceed ₱ 200 billion.
  • It represents a substantial >142% YoY increase over 2024 (where IPO pipeline was ₱82.4 billion), with the majority of it back-end loaded (pipeline completed till Aug FY25 ₱70 billion) 
  • Trading at 15x FY25 PE, with 18% of the market cap in cash, a 6% dividend yield, and multiple growth levers in the future, this is a stock to explore.

BYD (1211 HK): Flat Sales Volume in August and Lower Margin in 1H25

By Ming Lu

  • In August, BYD’s total sales volume was still flat and its domestic sales volume continued to shrink.
  • The operating margin declined significantly to 2.3% in 1H25 from 4.4% in 1H24.
  • The P/E band suggests a downside of 23% and a price target of HK$89.00.

KT&G: Selling 57 Real Estate Properties to Generate 1 Trillion Won in Additional Cash Flow

By Douglas Kim

  • KT&G announced that it is selling numerous properties nationwide as well as financial assets, aiming to generate about 1 trillion won in additional cash flow.
  • KT&G has started to sell off a number of real estate properties in Seoul, Bundang, Daegu, Sejong, Busan, and North Chungcheong, and other parts of Korea through public bidding process.
  • Four key catalysts with KT&G include an increasing probability of cigarette price hike, asset sales of non-core properties/improving corporate governance, high dividend yields, and profitable growth of core tobacco business. 

Golden Throat (6896 HK): China’s Leading Lozenge Maker at 10x P/E and a 10% Dividend Yield

By Michael Fritzell

  • Golden Throat (6896 HK — US$343 million) is an iconic Chinese brand of throat lozenges, used to deal with sore or dry throats.

  • The core product is similar to Strepsils, Halls, or Ricola, but is sold over-the-counter in pharmacies.

  • The company sells 146 million boxes per year and has an estimated market share of 26% in China.

ICLN’s Upward Momentum to Last Longer as Investors Pivot to Clean Energy

By Suhas Reddy

  • ICLN has surged more than 35% since April, driven by record renewable generation, strong corporate earnings, and institutional inflows.
  • Investors and banks are rotating capital from fossil fuels into clean energy, signalling structural shifts and fuelling the rise of solar and renewables.
  • Global clean energy investment, led by solar, points to the early stages of a solar super cycle, positioning ICLN as a prime long-term play.

Nitto Boseki (Nittobo, TSE:3110) – Expansion Unlocks AI-Linked Growth, but Execution Key

By Rahul Jain

  • ¥15 Bn investment to triple glass cloth capacity at Fukushima plant, with new operations starting Q4 FY2026.
  • Demand for low-dielectric and T-glass cloth in AI servers and semiconductors has outpaced supply, creating a strategic bottleneck and premium pricing.
  • Full earnings uplift from FY2027 onward, with projected revenue and EPS rising 12–15% post-expansion.

The Beat Ideas: Nalco’s ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • National Aluminium (NACL IN) has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.
  • Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted “Maharatna” status by 2030.
  • This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.

Pinduoduo’s Growth Slows as Competition, Tariffs Hit Temu Expansion

By Caixin Global

  • Pinduoduo Holdings Inc. on Monday reported its slowest revenue growth in three years, as the Chinese e-commerce giant ran into stiffer competition at home and new tariff challenges abroad for its overseas arm Temu.
  • The Nasdaq-listed company posted second-quarter revenue of 103.99 billion yuan ($14.5billion), just above market expectations and up 7% from a year earlier. That marked the fifth straight quarter of deceleration and the slowest pace since mid-2022.
  • Pinduoduo’s meteoric rise since launching Temu in September 2022 peaked with a 131% revenue surge in the first quarter of 2024. Growth has slowed each quarter since, falling to 86% in the second quarter of 2024, 44% in the third, 24% in the fourth, and only 10% in the first quarter of 2025.

GEM Exchanges –Scorecard Confirms Brazilian Exchange B3 (B3SA3 BZ) As Our Top Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • We stick with Brazilian exchange B3 as our buy pick, as the scorecard indicates; data represents the highest share of total revenues versus peers and its post-trade revenues are understated
  • We downgrade Hong Kong Exchange to a neutral from buy, after its strong share price performance YTD; we feel much growth potential is discounted at current valuations
  • We downgrade BSE to a sell rating as it trades on rich fundamental valuations making it vulnerable to negative earnings surprises; its EBITDA margin no longer lags its peer group

Business Breakdown: Akums Drugs – Market Leader with Global Ambitions

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Akums secured a €200m European supply contract, marking its first large entry into regulated markets and validating its compliance and scale capabilities.
  • This shifts Akums from a domestic CDMO leader to a credible global player, with exports positioned to become a material earnings contributor from FY27.
  • While near-term growth remains muted, Akums’ medium-term profile looks stronger, with greater diversification and reduced dependence on India’s CDMO cycle.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Macro: Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer
  • Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly – Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars
  • Gold Moves to the Beat of a Different Drum: Vaults, Flows, and Futures
  • 182: Private Credit: Hype, Hazard, or the Next Big Thing in Long-Term Growth? With Huw Van Steeni…
  • Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?
  • Liz Truss on the ‘Doom Loop’ Engulfing the UK Economy
  • We Know More Than We Can Say Precisely
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again
  • HEM: Politicised Policy Pricing

Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer

By At Any Rate

  • Market pricing is not expecting a rate cut at the ECB September meeting, but further easing may still be on the table later in the year.
  • Swap spreads typically narrow in August, but this year they have been stable, potentially due to French political developments.
  • Seasonality and potential volatility could still drive narrowing in swap spreads in the near term, despite weakening relationships with German swap spreads.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly – Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • From July’s recent peak of US$17.3bn, onshore investors’ net Southbound buying declined to US$14.3 bn in August. Average daily turnover continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$19.8bn.
  • Buying in Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba re-commenced, after selling for 3-4 months. The semiconductor giants – SMIC and Hua Hong – are being bought as well. 
  • Investors’ long-standing preferences for e-commerce, food delivery, biotech and dividends continue. Meituan and Kuaishou continue to be bought, despite the recent losses. Akeso, XTALPI and Innovent occupy the biotech space.

Gold Moves to the Beat of a Different Drum: Vaults, Flows, and Futures

By Jay Cameron

  • Market Structure Signals Stability: Gold futures have remained range-bound near technical resistance, with intraday volatility compressing—suggesting a market more likely to drift than break.
  • ETF and Vault Flows Show Steady Demand: Sustained inflows into the SPDR Gold Trust and consistent London vault holdings point to underlying investor interest, even without aggressive price action.
  • Positioning Data Reveals Divergence: Commercial hedgers are easing short exposure while speculative players show mixed sentiment, hinting at a market caught between caution and latent bullishness.

182: Private Credit: Hype, Hazard, or the Next Big Thing in Long-Term Growth? With Huw Van Steeni…

By The Money Maze Podcast

  • Private assets, gold, and real estate are recommended for investment to recreate what our parents had financially
  • Private credit is reshaping wealth portfolios, with a shift towards insurance companies funding the majority of assets in private credit
  • The role of private credit has grown significantly post-financial crisis, with a focus on higher quality, lower risk assets and loans to hard assets such as infrastructure.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

By Rahul Jain

  • Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
  • Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
  • Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.

Liz Truss on the ‘Doom Loop’ Engulfing the UK Economy

By Odd Lots

  • Legacy systems can’t handle usage-based billing, slowing down product launches
  • Metronome allows for quick roll out of new pricing models in minutes
  • Guest interview with Liz Truss discussing economic challenges and the need for policy shifts

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

We Know More Than We Can Say Precisely

By Thomas Lam

  • The current and expected deterioration of the underlying fiscal trend is troubling
  • But the empirical and theoretical relationships between fiscal variables and longer-term interest rates are complex
  • My decomposition of longer-term rates and econometric estimates can potentially add to the available research on this

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix’s mine life.
  • Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking Fenix Resources (FEX AU) to a 10-12 million ton production profile. 
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). 

HEM: Politicised Policy Pricing

By Phil Rush

  • Persistent inflationary pressures pared dovish guidance and pricing for the BoE and ECB, but Fed pricing is stuck.
  • Blocking a rare resumption of Fed easing looks unlikely, but history suggests cuts would be shallow and reversed.
  • Peer pressure is weak during a policy mistake. The BoE faces domestic problems that prevent further easing.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief India: National Aluminium, Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: Nalco’s ₹30,000 Crore Expansion
  • Business Breakdown: Akums Drugs – Market Leader with Global Ambitions

The Beat Ideas: Nalco’s ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • National Aluminium (NACL IN) has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.
  • Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted “Maharatna” status by 2030.
  • This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.

Business Breakdown: Akums Drugs – Market Leader with Global Ambitions

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Akums secured a €200m European supply contract, marking its first large entry into regulated markets and validating its compliance and scale capabilities.
  • This shifts Akums from a domestic CDMO leader to a credible global player, with exports positioned to become a material earnings contributor from FY27.
  • While near-term growth remains muted, Akums’ medium-term profile looks stronger, with greater diversification and reduced dependence on India’s CDMO cycle.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief United States: iSharesGlobal Clean Energy ETF, Klarna Group, EURO/US DOLLAR, Gold, AppFolio Inc A, Yorkville Acquisition, Somnia, Honeywell International and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ICLN’s Upward Momentum to Last Longer as Investors Pivot to Clean Energy
  • Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm
  • Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer
  • Gold Moves to the Beat of a Different Drum: Vaults, Flows, and Futures
  • Dialogue. AppFolio 2Q25, Incorporating AI, Expert Call Competitor Analysis
  • Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: September 1 – September 5
  • Strategic Mergers, SPAC Opportunities, and Legal Battles: Current Active Portfolio Ideas
  • Somnia: Building for the Future of Onchain Applications
  • Weekly Update (HON, SOLS, BRSL)

ICLN’s Upward Momentum to Last Longer as Investors Pivot to Clean Energy

By Suhas Reddy

  • ICLN has surged more than 35% since April, driven by record renewable generation, strong corporate earnings, and institutional inflows.
  • Investors and banks are rotating capital from fossil fuels into clean energy, signalling structural shifts and fuelling the rise of solar and renewables.
  • Global clean energy investment, led by solar, points to the early stages of a solar super cycle, positioning ICLN as a prime long-term play.

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Klarna Group plc, a first mover in the BNPL space and AI-powered fintech company, is targeting an IPO valuation of between $13B and $14B, according to Reuters.
  • A Swedish founder-led decacorn is preparing for a roadshow after Labor Day this week. They intend to raise up to ~$1B and start trading in September.
  • $13B-$14B IPO valuation is cheap vs. peers and implies ~68% discount to Affirm. Klarna’s last down round was a $800M venture round in July of 2022 at a ~$6.7B valuation.

Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer

By At Any Rate

  • Market pricing is not expecting a rate cut at the ECB September meeting, but further easing may still be on the table later in the year.
  • Swap spreads typically narrow in August, but this year they have been stable, potentially due to French political developments.
  • Seasonality and potential volatility could still drive narrowing in swap spreads in the near term, despite weakening relationships with German swap spreads.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Gold Moves to the Beat of a Different Drum: Vaults, Flows, and Futures

By Jay Cameron

  • Market Structure Signals Stability: Gold futures have remained range-bound near technical resistance, with intraday volatility compressing—suggesting a market more likely to drift than break.
  • ETF and Vault Flows Show Steady Demand: Sustained inflows into the SPDR Gold Trust and consistent London vault holdings point to underlying investor interest, even without aggressive price action.
  • Positioning Data Reveals Divergence: Commercial hedgers are easing short exposure while speculative players show mixed sentiment, hinting at a market caught between caution and latent bullishness.

Dialogue. AppFolio 2Q25, Incorporating AI, Expert Call Competitor Analysis

By The Synopsis

  • AppFolio offers software for real estate managers to help run their businesses, including leasing, rent collection, accounting, and maintenance requests
  • The company reported a 19% growth in both core services and value-added services, with 8.9 million units under management
  • AppFolio’s pricing model charges based on a unit basis, incentivizing all members of an organization to use the software and increasing customer retention. Total customers increased by 6% to 21,400.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: September 1 – September 5

By Nico Rosti

Strategic Mergers, SPAC Opportunities, and Legal Battles: Current Active Portfolio Ideas

By Special Situation Investments

  • Yorkville Acquisition (YORKU) and Renatus Tactical Acquisition (RTAC) are SPACs with ties to the current administration and crypto space.
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX) faces a legal battle with Cosette Pharmaceuticals over a merger, with a hearing set for September 22.
  • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) is under pressure from activists for a sale to Danone, with a standstill agreement until September 15.

Somnia: Building for the Future of Onchain Applications

By Delphi Digital

  • The report highlights how Somnia is addressing the long-standing challenges that have hindered blockchain gaming — from network congestion and unpredictable gas fees to poor user experience and security risks.
  • While most blockchains struggle to support complex, consumer-grade apps, Somnia introduces an EVM-compatible network specifically optimized for gaming and other high-throughput use cases.
  • By rethinking infrastructure at the base layer, Somnia enables scalability, predictable costs, and seamless UX, laying the foundation for richer onchain applications.

Weekly Update (HON, SOLS, BRSL)

By Richard Howe

  • Honeywell’s spin-off of its Advanced Materials business, to be named Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), is scheduled for completion in Q4 2025.

  • Solstice recently filed its Form 10 Information Statement and confirmed Q4 timing. Here is the slide deck that was published at the time of the announcement last fall.

  • An investor day is planned for October 8, 2025, in New York City, where Honeywell will provide further details on Solstice’s business strategy and growth prospects.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Singapore: iFAST, Lendlease Global Commercial REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • iFAST Chief Lim Chung Chun Ups Shareholding
  • REIT Watch – Retail S-REITs see lower cost of debt and positive rental reversions as retail sales improve

iFAST Chief Lim Chung Chun Ups Shareholding

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks with a S$33 million inflow, reversing a prior S$53 million outflow.
  • United Overseas Bank led share buybacks with S$54.7 million total consideration, purchasing 500,000 shares at S$35.30 each.
  • iFAST Corporation’s 1HFY25 profit before tax rose 32.7% to S$50.4 million, driven by iGB’s profitability.

REIT Watch – Retail S-REITs see lower cost of debt and positive rental reversions as retail sales improve

By Geoff Howie

  • CICT’s DPU rose 3.5% to 5.62 cents, with leverage and debt costs reduced to 37.9% and 3.4%.
  • FCT’s committed occupancy reached 99.9%, with tenant sales up 4.4% and leverage increased to 40.4%.
  • Suntec REIT’s Gross Revenue and NPI grew 3.3% and 5.6%, with DPU increasing 3.7% to 3.155 cents.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief China: Shandong Gold Mining , Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, HKBN Ltd, BYD, Alibaba, Cambricon Technologies Lt, Remegen , Golden Throat Holdings, Huaxin Cement , Aux Electric and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shandong Gold Mining Placement – H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares
  • Simcere Pharma Placement – First Primary Raising, past Deals Have Been Mixed
  • HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
  • BYD (1211 HK): Flat Sales Volume in August and Lower Margin in 1H25
  • Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: What Cones Reveal in Tencent, HSBC, Meituan & More
  • Quiddity STAR 50/100 Sep25 Results: 11/12 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct; Large Outflow for Cambricon
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025):  AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather
  • Golden Throat (6896 HK): China’s Leading Lozenge Maker at 10x P/E and a 10% Dividend Yield
  • Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off
  • Aux Electric IPO Trading: Decent Insti Demand; Is Cheap

Shandong Gold Mining Placement – H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
  • The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Simcere Pharma Placement – First Primary Raising, past Deals Have Been Mixed

By Sumeet Singh

  • Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is looking to raise around US$200m via a top-up placement.
  • This is the first primary raising by the company since its listing. There have been a few secondary deals, with mixed results.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)’s offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.075 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is September 3.
  • Based on CCASS data, including acceptances, China Mobile’s shareholding was 48.93% of outstanding shares as of September 1.
  • Therefore, the offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and for a September 12 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.5%/15.7%.

BYD (1211 HK): Flat Sales Volume in August and Lower Margin in 1H25

By Ming Lu

  • In August, BYD’s total sales volume was still flat and its domestic sales volume continued to shrink.
  • The operating margin declined significantly to 2.3% in 1H25 from 4.4% in 1H24.
  • The P/E band suggests a downside of 23% and a price target of HK$89.00.

Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: What Cones Reveal in Tencent, HSBC, Meituan & More

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
  • Highlights:Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK),Meituan (3690 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), and JD.com (9618 HK) all display historically cheap implied volatility. Read on for trade suggestions.
  • Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

Quiddity STAR 50/100 Sep25 Results: 11/12 Expected ADDs/DELs Correct; Large Outflow for Cambricon

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The September 2025 index review results for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices were announced after market close on Friday 29th August 2025.
  • There will be one change for the STAR 50 index and five changes for the STAR 100 index.
  • We expect one-way flows of approximately US$2.1bn and US$239mn for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 index rebal events respectively.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025):  AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather

By Travis Lundy

  • HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… is flat. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.1% H underperformance vs As which is -4.4% on average over two weeks.
  • Last week’s short reco on Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) was up 2.3% on the week in Hs but Hs underperformed the As by 1.86%.
  • AH premia are in a widening phase. This may continue. New reco this week.

Golden Throat (6896 HK): China’s Leading Lozenge Maker at 10x P/E and a 10% Dividend Yield

By Michael Fritzell

  • Golden Throat (6896 HK — US$343 million) is an iconic Chinese brand of throat lozenges, used to deal with sore or dry throats.

  • The core product is similar to Strepsils, Halls, or Ricola, but is sold over-the-counter in pharmacies.

  • The company sells 146 million boxes per year and has an estimated market share of 26% in China.

Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Two days after announcing its 2025 interims, Holcim (HOLN SW)-backed Huaxin Cement (6655 HK) proposed spinning off its overseas cement assets.
  • The overseas ops, predominantly located in Africa, significantly outperformed the PRC ops in FY24, a trend that continued into 2025. 
  • No preferred bourse was stipulated, although the HKEx appears the logical choice. Pegged to historical trading metrics, Huaxin appears fully valued here.

Aux Electric IPO Trading: Decent Insti Demand; Is Cheap

By Nicholas Tan

  • Aux Electric (2580 HK)  raised around US$532m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is one of the global top five air conditioner providers. 
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Somnia: Building for the Future of Onchain Applications and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Somnia: Building for the Future of Onchain Applications

Somnia: Building for the Future of Onchain Applications

By Delphi Digital

  • The report highlights how Somnia is addressing the long-standing challenges that have hindered blockchain gaming — from network congestion and unpredictable gas fees to poor user experience and security risks.
  • While most blockchains struggle to support complex, consumer-grade apps, Somnia introduces an EVM-compatible network specifically optimized for gaming and other high-throughput use cases.
  • By rethinking infrastructure at the base layer, Somnia enables scalability, predictable costs, and seamless UX, laying the foundation for richer onchain applications.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Japan: Lifedrink , Orion Breweries Limited, Nitto Boseki, Copper, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Nippon Steel Corporation, HIRANO TECSEED Co (Kinzoku), Raccoon Holdings, Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown
  • Lifedrink Placement: Cleanup Sale but Placement Properties Are Not Great
  • Orion Breweries IPO – Smaller Scale Warrants Discount
  • Nitto Boseki (Nittobo, TSE:3110) – Expansion Unlocks AI-Linked Growth, but Execution Key
  • Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?
  • Orion Breweries IPO: Turning Local Strength into Growth Abroad
  • Continuing Parent-Subsidiary Listings Is Losing Value that Could Be Reliably Obtained
  • Nippon Steel (5401.T) – Financial and Strategic Analysis Post-U.S. Steel Acquisition
  • Hirano Tecseed (6245 JP): Research Update
  • Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update

[Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • Today post-close, Lifedrink (2585 JP) announced the Sunrise PE funds which own 22% of the company will sell their stake in a clean-up offering with pricing in 8 days.
  • This offering comes 8 trading days after a new post-earnings all-time-high. At 24x ADV, the offering will increase Max Real World Float by 50+%. 
  • There are some index and buyback supply/demand dynamics to note. It’s a heavy offering, so bullish/bearish may be a matter of horizon.

Lifedrink Placement: Cleanup Sale but Placement Properties Are Not Great

By Nicholas Tan

  • Lifedrink (2585 JP)  is looking to raise around US$175m from a secondary placement.
  • The deal is a large one to digest, representing 20.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 18.4% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Orion Breweries IPO – Smaller Scale Warrants Discount

By Akshat Shah

  • Orion Breweries Limited’s (409A JT) operations span across alcoholic beverages, tourism and hotel businesses, aiming to raise ~US$126m in its Japan IPO via a mix of primary and secondary offerings.
  • Orion Breweries (OBL) has a strong Okinawa market position. Share of overseas sales has been growing (~23% of FY25 revenues), while profitability has also largely been steady.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

Nitto Boseki (Nittobo, TSE:3110) – Expansion Unlocks AI-Linked Growth, but Execution Key

By Rahul Jain

  • ¥15 Bn investment to triple glass cloth capacity at Fukushima plant, with new operations starting Q4 FY2026.
  • Demand for low-dielectric and T-glass cloth in AI servers and semiconductors has outpaced supply, creating a strategic bottleneck and premium pricing.
  • Full earnings uplift from FY2027 onward, with projected revenue and EPS rising 12–15% post-expansion.

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

By Rahul Jain

  • Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
  • Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
  • Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.

Orion Breweries IPO: Turning Local Strength into Growth Abroad

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Orion Breweries Limited (409A JT) has become synonymous with Okinawa, combining heritage, loyalty, and local identity into a brand experience that larger rivals struggle to replicate.
  • The company benefits from Okinawa’s nearly 10 million annual visitors, turning tourism into both a sales driver and a powerful channel for brand amplification abroad.
  • The IPO offers attractive valuation versus peers, despite risks from MBO-related debt and potential share overhang from private equity owners.

Continuing Parent-Subsidiary Listings Is Losing Value that Could Be Reliably Obtained

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Listed subsidiaries focusing on core businesses have higher capital profitability and stock valuations than parent companies, while parent companies with diversified businesses have lower than listed subsidiaries in the both.
  • By converting a listed subsidiary with high capital profitability into a wholly owned subsidiary, or by selling a listed subsidiary with low capital profitability,  it could increase profitability of parent.
  • Even though this was expected, parent-subsidiary listings continue to this day (recently, more subsidiaries are listing on Standard Market), and the value that can be reliably obtained is being lost.

Nippon Steel (5401.T) – Financial and Strategic Analysis Post-U.S. Steel Acquisition

By Rahul Jain

  • Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel, finalized in July 2025, significantly expands its North American presence but introduces margin and cost challenges.
  • Announced Plans: A $11 billion capex plan through 2028 targets a new EAF mill, Gary Works upgrades, and efficiency enhancements to drive synergies.
  • What to Watch: Monitor synergy execution, steel price trends, and U.S. Steel’s FCF generation to assess whether Nippon can offset margin dilution and balance sheet strain.

Hirano Tecseed (6245 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Hirano Tecseed (hereinafter HT) reported FY25 Q1 OP of ¥821mil (+181.1-% YoY) on sales of ¥10,719mil (-11.4% YoY), which resulted in an OPM of 7.7%, a significant improvement from FY24 Q1’s OPM of 2.4%.
  • Sales were largely in line with expectation on the back of progress in working through order backlogs, especially in C&LM for secondary LiB.
  • Given successful passing through of cost increases to customers in the C&LM segment, FY25 1H guidance was revised from OP of ¥750mil (-26.8% YoY) on sales of ¥16,750mil (-31.3% YoY) to OP of ¥1,000mil (-2.4% YoY) on unchanged sales.

Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased 2.3% YoY, with EC business up 6.6% and Financial business down 3.2% due to deconsolidation.
  • Operating profit decreased 19.6% YoY; SG&A expenses rose 3.8pp, driven by personnel and overseas shipping costs.
  • EC business revenue rose 6.6% YoY; Financial business payments handled increased 12.2% YoY, guarantees outstanding grew 14.9% YoY.

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Sep 01
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: John Wood, Crude Oil, Silver and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions
  • Brent Crude: Flying With Clouds Ahead.  Or, When Supply Outruns the Tide
  • Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sidara’s 30p/share offer, backed by $450m funding and debt extension, is the only viable path; yet “Exceptional Conditions” make this deal unusually binary despite board support.
  • The audit (clean FY24 balance sheet opinion by 31 Oct 2025) and A&E by 31 Dec 2025 are non-waivable gates; clearing both crystallizes 30p, missing either drives automatic lapse.
  • Probability-Weighted target price stands at 24.9p; distressed entries retain compelling upside, but pre-existing holders rely heavily on successful completion. Break risk implies severe equity impairment if conditions fail.

Brent Crude: Flying With Clouds Ahead.  Or, When Supply Outruns the Tide

By Jay Cameron

  • Major agencies now align on a possible consensus: the crude market is entering a phase of structural imbalance.
  • Inventory builds and shifting producer strategies are setting the stage for a market environment not seen in years.
  • Historical parallels suggest that the coming quarters may test price resilience more than recent memory.

Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

By Rahul Jain

  • Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.
  • Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.
  • For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.

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Sep 01
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Alphabet, Airtasker, BATM Advanced Communications and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead
  • ALPHABET INC. CLASS A Common Stock – July 2, 2025
  • Airtasker Ltd – Solid guidance off a strong FY25 base
  • Friday Take Away: 22 August 2025

Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Samsung’s potential Intel stake highlights need for packaging know-how, not customers, and provides a hedge if its 2nm yields or production slip.
  • TSMC extends lead with stable N3, on-track N2, AI packaging dominance, and customer migrations, while Samsung’s foundry share declines below 8%.
  • Implications: Positive for TSMC (2330 TT), negative signal for Samsung (005930 KS), validating for Intel (INTC US) though regulatory and governance constraints remain important.

ALPHABET INC. CLASS A Common Stock – July 2, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Alphabet Inc. Class A is a leading global technology conglomerate headquartered in the United States, best known as the parent company of Google.
  • The company maintains a dominant international presence across key sectors such as online search, digital advertising, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence.
  • The Company’s shares are listed οn the Nasdaq Composite stock market Ιndex since August 19, 2004 and are included among the companies with the higher market capitalization globally.

Airtasker Ltd – Solid guidance off a strong FY25 base

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
  • ART has reported its FY25 result, which was largely flagged in the recent Q4 FY25 cash flow update.
  • Further disclosure reveals a monetisation rate of 21.6% for FY25, up from 20% in FY24 and above our forecast.

Friday Take Away: 22 August 2025

By Hybridan

  • The transitioning and rebranded provider of advanced network infrastructure, cybersecurity, and diagnostic technologies reported interims to end June on the 18 August.
  • The business is concentrating on three core businesses: BATM Networks, BATM Cyber and BATM Diagnostics.
  • Substantial operational changes have been implemented, and non-core activities are being sold with three disposals made in the first half of 2025.

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