Daily Briefs

Corpay has made headlines with its definitive agreement to acquire Alpha Group International in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.2 billion (£1.6 billion).
The transaction, offering Alpha shareholders £42.50 per share—a 55% premium over its undisturbed price as of May 1, 2025—is expected to close in Q4 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
This acquisition comes on the heels of a busy strategic year for Corpay, including a $300 million cross-border partnership with Mastercard and a minority investment in AvidXchange.

Palo Alto Eyes SentinelOne: The $7 Billion Power Move That Could Reshape Cybersecurity!

Rumors are swirling around a potential acquisition that could significantly reshape the cybersecurity landscape.
SentinelOne, a company known for its autonomous endpoint protection platform, saw its shares surge after reports emerged suggesting that industry giant Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) might be in advanced talks to acquire it.
While neither company has confirmed the speculation, multiple Israeli media outlets have cited industry sources suggesting a potential deal value of around $7 billion.

McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Another Private Equity Backed IPO Trades Below Issue, Closes Flat

McGraw Hill (MH US) priced a full-size offering of 24.4mm shares at $17.00 and saw a flat opening print.
This was the second private equity backed deal of the week and second to trade below issue.
Ultimately, the deal did not have the “strength” and was forced to give-way to the buy-side with a $2 discount below the low-end of the range.

Datadog Eyes $1 Billion Upwind Deal: Could This Be A Game-Changer For Cloud Security?

Datadog, a leader in observability and security, is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Israeli cybersecurity firm Upwind for approximately $1 billion, according to a report by Calcalist.
The move comes just months after Upwind raised $100 million in a Series A funding round, valuing the startup at roughly $900 million.
As Datadog continues expanding its product portfolio, especially in cloud-native security and AI observability, the potential acquisition of Upwind signals a strategic push deeper into cloud workload protection and runtime security.

Deere & Co Is Quietly Dominating the AI Farming Revolution—Here’s Why It Could Be The TESLA Of Agriculture!

Deere & Co is no longer just a symbol of tractors and green machines — it has quietly transformed into one of the most dominant forces in agricultural technology.
At the intersection of artificial intelligence and farming, Deere is building a future where its equipment not only performs fieldwork but also interprets real-time data, automates decision-making, and boosts crop yields through precision.
The company’s recent developments, including strong second-quarter financials for fiscal 2025 and an impressive Investor Day presentation in Brazil, reveal a clear trajectory: Deere is shifting from traditional machinery to becoming a full-scale agri-tech platform.

[Earnings Preview] Shell Falters on Fundamentals, But Options Data Signals Optimism

By Suhas Reddy

Shell’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10.6% QoQ and 16.9% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 29.9% QoQ and 34.8% YoY.
Despite stronger refining margins, unplanned maintenance is expected to drag down downstream and chemicals earnings, pressuring overall performance.
However, options positioning reflects bullish sentiment, with traders betting on a potential upside surprise despite a downbeat operational update.

Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI): Another MedTech to Test the Market, Sets Terms for July 31 IPO

Shoulder Innovations will be offering 5.0mm shares at $19-$21 and to debut on July 31st.
The underwriters have reserved up to 6% of the shares of common stock offered through a directed share program.
The sector had a surprise underperformance from CarlsMed this week and will be looking to rebound with this upcoming IPO.

Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Insurance Sector Brings Another IPO Winner to Market; Pops 36% at Open

Accelerant Holdings (ARX US) priced 34.46mm shares (upsized from 28.95mm) at $21.00($1 Above the $18-$20 range) and opened at $28.50 for a gain of 35.7% at first trade.
This was the fifth insurance related IPO to debut in 2025 and all have been winners.
We see this company having potential staying power in the short term. Several insurance related IPOs have traded higher for longer than many short term investors would have anticipated.

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

By Nicolas Baratte

2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings.
Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars.
New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, SKC Co Ltd, SK Hynix, Samsung Biologics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Everything to Know About the Year-End CGT-Driven Retail Sell-Off & KOSPI Basis Move
Potential Adds & Deletes in a Major Global Index in August 2025 As Highlighted by Locals in Korea
SK Hynix: Good 2Q, Positive Messages but No 2026 Guidance Means that Market’s Doubts Will Remain
Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Bumps up Full Year Guidance Amid Strong 2Q Show and Plant 4 Ramp-Up

Everything to Know About the Year-End CGT-Driven Retail Sell-Off & KOSPI Basis Move

By Sanghyun Park

If the CGT threshold drops from ₩5B to ₩1B, year-end retail selling could surge—net sales were ₩14T in Nov–Dec 2023 versus just ₩2.5T in the same period of 2024.
Retail may react strongly this year due to higher unrealized gains and the ₩1B CGT threshold return; about 65% of KOSPI stocks still use year-end dividend record dates.
Odds are high for a classic year-end CGT-driven retail sell-off and a sharp KOSPI cash-futures basis move, fueled by dividend uncertainty we can capitalize on.

Potential Adds & Deletes in a Major Global Index in August 2025 As Highlighted by Locals in Korea

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss the potential adds and deletes of Korean stocks in a major global index in August 2025 as highlighted by the locals in Korea.
There are about 10 potential additions to the major global index mentioned by various local media accounts. LIG Nex1, Hyosung Heavy Industries, and Doosan Corp are most likely inclusion candidates.
There have been three companies that have been consistently mentioned in numerous local media as potential deletion candidates including LG Innotek, CJ Cheiljedang, and SKC Co.

SK Hynix: Good 2Q, Positive Messages but No 2026 Guidance Means that Market’s Doubts Will Remain

By Nicolas Baratte

2Q25 beats consensus by 5% with a number of unexpected moves: NAND and Commodity DRAM shipments a lot higher than expected, hence weaker ASP (more commodity), margins decline QoQ.
HBM positive messages: HBM sales double in 2025, we now have secured visibility on next year’s demand”, leading to higher capex in 2025, HBM will continue to enjoy strong growth.
But a lack of concrete numbers (HBM, eSSD % of revenue), 2025-26 Capex, capacity increase, etc means that the market will not find grounds to have a more positive view.

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Bumps up Full Year Guidance Amid Strong 2Q Show and Plant 4 Ramp-Up

By Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) maintained positive momentum in 2Q25, with consolidated revenue and operating profit rising 11% and 9%, YoY, respectively.
Leveraging on strong 2Q result and successful ramp-up of Plant 4 providing additional momentum, the company has revised annual revenue growth guidance upward to 25–30% YoY from 20–25%.
Going ahead, the company is planning to shed its biosimilars subsidiary, Samsung Bioepis, to “focus on strengthening its core capabilities as a pure-play CDMO.”

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Daily Brief Singapore: Frasers Hospitality Trust, QAF Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Fraser Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Scheme Vote on 15 August
QAF: Regional Consumer Stock with Appealing 5.6% Dividend Yield
Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): 15th August Vote On Frasers Prop/TCC Offer

Fraser Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Scheme Vote on 15 August

By Arun George

The Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) IFA opines that Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP)’s scheme offer of S$0.71 cash and permitted distributions (estimated at S$0.0098) is fair and reasonable.
While the current offer is arguably light compared to the failed 2022 offer, the lack of vocal opposition and limited retail displeasure reduces the vote risk.
On balance, the scheme vote should pass. For a 30 September payment, the gross/annualised spread of the total offer (S$0.7198) is 2.8%/15.6%.

QAF: Regional Consumer Stock with Appealing 5.6% Dividend Yield

By Punit Khanna

Singapore small-mid cap stocks are having a good run in anticipation of Market Equity Development Programme. QAF may appeal to yield investors
QAF is a well run number 1 bread company in Singapore, Malaysia and Philippines
Business is stable and mature making it difficult for a new player to enter the market

Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): 15th August Vote On Frasers Prop/TCC Offer

Back on the 14th May 2025, S-REIT Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) entered into a Scheme with its current sponsor, Frasers Property Limited, @ S$0.71/share.
The Scheme Consideration is 1.11x the latest adjusted NAV estimate of S$0.63904/unit; and S$0.01/unit above Frasers/TCC’s S$0.70/unit failed Offer back in September 2022.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 13th August. The IFA says fair and reasonable.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Daily Brief India: Tilaknagar Industries, Indian Energy Exchange Ltd, Natco Pharma, Brigade Hotel Ventures Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Event Driven: Tilaknagar Ind ₹4,150 Cr Imperial Blue Acq.~Transformational Play or Leverage Trap?
India’s Energy Exchanges: Market Coupling, the Next Big Disruption
Event Driven: Natco Pharma’s Strategic Acquisition of Adcock Ingram
Brigade Hotel IPO: Not Suited for a Long Term Stay for Now, Can Try For a Quick Day Trip Gain
Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

Event Driven: Tilaknagar Ind ₹4,150 Cr Imperial Blue Acq.~Transformational Play or Leverage Trap?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Tilaknagar Industries (TLNGR IN) acquires Pernod Ricard India’s Imperial Blue for INR 4,150 crore, diversifying its portfolio into whisky from dominance in brandy.
This acquisition will establish TI as a pan-India spirits player, significantly enhancing distribution and is expected to be accretive.
However, substantial deal size raises concerns about equity dilution, high leverage risks, and significant integration challenges for TI

India’s Energy Exchanges: Market Coupling, the Next Big Disruption

By Sudarshan Bhandari

India’s CERC has approved the implementation of Market Coupling in the DAM(Day Ahead Market) by Jan-26, with Real Time Market (RTM) coupling to follow after operational experience is gained.
IEX currently commands 99.8% market share in both DAM and RTM. With MC, price discovery will be centralized, eroding IEX’s platform advantage and likely resulting in loss of market share.
If MC had been implemented in FY25, IEX’s earnings would have been 20% lower. This regulatory shift poses a clear structural risk to IEX’s volume dominance and earnings growth.

Event Driven: Natco Pharma’s Strategic Acquisition of Adcock Ingram

By Nimish Maheshwari

Natco Pharma acquires a 35.75% stake in South Africa’s Adcock Ingram, marking its largest overseas expansion to date.
This move instantly gives Natco a strong foothold in Africa’s pharma market and diversifies its global revenue streams from current headwind of US market.
Natco transitions from a primarily India/US-focused player to a serious contender in strategic emerging markets, enhancing its growth outlook.

Brigade Hotel IPO: Not Suited for a Long Term Stay for Now, Can Try For a Quick Day Trip Gain

By Tina Banerjee

Brigade Hotel Ventures has filed for IPO to raise up to INR 7,596M. The company plans to sell 84.4M shares at between INR 85 and INR 90 per share.
The company owns and develops hotels in key cities in India, with a portfolio of nine operating hotels. The hotels are operated by global marquee hospitality companies.
The debt-to-equity ratio for Brigade Hotel being at 5.8x is the highest among its peers. The company’s plans to use the proceeds to service the outstanding debts makes sense.

Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

By Rahul Jain

CERC has mandated market coupling for the Day-Ahead Market starting Jan 2026, shifting price discovery to a central engine.
This dilutes IEX’s pricing power but core execution role, user trust, and market share offer downside protection.
Valuations at 38–40× FY25 EPS imply a fair value range of Rs175–195, with upside if growth in green and RTM segments accelerates.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Most Read: IFBH, Shengyi Electronics, Doosan Corp, Cloud Village, Vishal Mega Mart, CK Hutchison Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), REA Group Ltd, Meitu Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
UK Structurally Unemployed
Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade
Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion
Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution
A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Exp ADDs Down Vs Exp DELs Since Methodology Change; Time to Reverse?
Meitu (1357 HK): AI-Driven Global Index Inclusion

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations

Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in September.
We estimate turnover of 1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 3.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 5bn (US$700m).
Near term performance for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) changes has been great, while the performance of the outright STAR100 Index changes has been far from satisfactory.

UK Structurally Unemployed

By Phil Rush

Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.
That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.
The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

Netease Cloud Music (9899 HK): Stock Up; Short Interest Up; Global Index Inclusion

Cloud Village (9899 HK)‘s stock price has doubled over the last quarter and the increased market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Short interest in Cloud Village (9899 HK) is at an all-time high and has increased in lockstep with the stock price.
Cloud Village (9899 HK) has outperformed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) and now trades at much higher valuations. A pair trade looks attractive here.

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN)‘s inclusion in a global index in August.
Estimated passive buying is 191m shares (US$312m; 5.8x ADV; 15.4x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
The index inclusion could take the stock higher in the short-term but buyers in the June placement could be looking for an exit.

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.
In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH – and CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium

By Sumeet Singh

With a spate of A/H listings already done in the first half and a lot more in the pipeline, we look at some of the trends from the recent listings.
In this note, we will also talk about how the A/H premiums have moved since our last note in March 2025.
Overall, recent A/H listings have somewhat reversed the trend of past A/H listings not doing much in the near term, with a few exceptions.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Exp ADDs Down Vs Exp DELs Since Methodology Change; Time to Reverse?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, a market consultation is being conducted and there could be several significant changes made to the index selection process.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th September 2025.

Meitu (1357 HK): AI-Driven Global Index Inclusion

Meitu Inc (1357 HK)‘s stock price has more than tripled over the last few months and the significantly higher market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Shorts covered a lot in 2024 and that has continued this year as the stock price has moved higher.
Meitu Inc (1357 HK) has outperformed its peers significantly and there could be a pullback in the stock following index inclusion.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Daily Brief China: CK Hutchison Holdings, Everest Medicines, Meitu Inc, BC Technology Group, Nanjing Leads Biolabs, Aux Electric Co Ltd, Dongfang Electric, West China Cement and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution
Everest Medicine Placement – Third Deal in the Year, Previous Ones Didn’t Do Well
Meitu (1357 HK): AI-Driven Global Index Inclusion
OSL Group Placement: Momentum Is Strong but Is Opportunistic
Leads Biolabs (维立志生物) Trading Update
Aux Electric Co Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Is There Any Room Left After the Rally?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.
In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH – and CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Everest Medicine Placement – Third Deal in the Year, Previous Ones Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

Everest Medicines (1952 HK) aims to raise around US$200m via a top-up placement.
This will be the third placement this year for the stock, the previous two deals didn’t do well. Although the stock has bounced back a lot since.
In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Meitu (1357 HK): AI-Driven Global Index Inclusion

Meitu Inc (1357 HK)‘s stock price has more than tripled over the last few months and the significantly higher market cap should lead to global index inclusion in August.
Shorts covered a lot in 2024 and that has continued this year as the stock price has moved higher.
Meitu Inc (1357 HK) has outperformed its peers significantly and there could be a pullback in the stock following index inclusion.

OSL Group Placement: Momentum Is Strong but Is Opportunistic

By Nicholas Tan

BC Technology Group (863 HK) is looking to raise around US$157m from a primary placement.
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 20.2 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 11.3% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Leads Biolabs (维立志生物) Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Leads Biolabs raised HKD 1290m (USD 166m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, July 24th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Aux Electric Co Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) (AECL) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are CICC and Oriental Securities.
AECL is engaged in the design, R&D, manufacturing, sales, and after-sales services of both household and central air conditioners, with operations spanning over 150 countries and regions.
According to F&S Report, AECL was among the top five global air conditioner providers by sales volume in 2024, with a market share of 7.1%.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Is There Any Room Left After the Rally?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)‘s recent rally following the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project announcement appears overdone, as it now trades more than 3SD above average.
We estimate that, even with generous assumptions, the project will add 11.5% of revenue of its annual revenue. This seems unmatched with the 52.7% share price jump.
1Q25 has performed well and deserves a re-rating, but the current extent is excessive. Fair value for the next three years is HK$18-22.8, at best.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, SK Hynix
US treasuries fell yesterday, with yields rising after three straight days of declines. That said, the sell-off in longer-dated treasuries moderated during the day, following strong demand for an auction of 20Y notes.
The UST curve bear-flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 5 bps to 3.88%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 4 bps at 4.38%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Motor, Pacific Industrial, Canon Marketing Japan, Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT, Pca Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy
[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports Pacific Industrial (7250) To Go Private Via MBO at ¥110bn
Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
Kasumigaseki REIT Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison – Small Is Size but Matching Its Peers on Other Metrics
Pca Corp (9629 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
The Data Also Shows that Companies with Low Stock Valuations Are Increasingly Using Share Buybacks

Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: On 23 July 2025, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.
Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.
Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports Pacific Industrial (7250) To Go Private Via MBO at ¥110bn

By Travis Lundy

Overnight, the Nikkei carried an article saying Toyota valve supplier Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) would go private at a 40% premium in an MBO.
The implied price would match its ATH, but would remain far below book value, which is disappointing for a company with a very strong customer base and market share.
This is potentially blockable, but it would need to be activism from scratch I think. An activist or collection of them would need about 18-20% to block this deal.

Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Sales rose 4.7% YoY, driven by IT solutions business growth; net income declined 6.4% YoY due to absent extraordinary gain.
CMJ revised FY12/25 forecasts: operating profit to JPY57.0bn (+7.3% YoY), recurring profit to JPY58.0bn (+6.6% YoY).
IT solutions sales projected to grow YoY, with a 7% increase in SI services and 10% in outsourcing.

Kasumigaseki REIT Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison – Small Is Size but Matching Its Peers on Other Metrics

By Nicholas Tan

Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT (401A JP) is looking to raise up to US$195m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
It is a REIT with hotel assets sponsored by affiliated developer, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP).
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and undertake a peer comparison.

Pca Corp (9629 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

In Q1 FY03/26, the company reported revenue of JPY4.0bn (+2.4% YoY) and net income of JPY348mn (-23.5% YoY).
Revenue from cloud services increased 15.6% YoY to JPY2.5bn, while maintenance services revenue decreased 16.0% YoY.
The company forecasts FY03/26 revenue of JPY17.7bn (+8.9% YoY) and net income of JPY1.9bn (+9.0% YoY).

The Data Also Shows that Companies with Low Stock Valuations Are Increasingly Using Share Buybacks

By Aki Matsumoto

Data suggests that share buybacks/share cancellations are expected to have positive effect on ROE/ROA, while companies with low valuations increasingly utilize share buybacks as a measure to raise stock prices.
Overseas investors share the value that companies should have business plans for growth and return surplus cash after investment to shareholders. There’s gap between investors and companies inn this value.
More effective approach would be to require management to fulfill accountability by explaining fundamentals of returning unused cash to shareholders and disclosing business plans if they wish to retain cash.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 24

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Hyosung Corporation, Venture Global LNG, Kinder Morgan, Chevron Corp, Copper, BHP Group Ltd, New Zealand Energy, ADF Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)
Venture Global (VG) Six Month Summary: Failed IPO Shows How Fast Wall Street Love Can Fade
Kinder Morgan: Haynesville Gas Gathering Expansion for Robust Growth Potential In Pipeline Utilization!
Chevron Just Won Big: What Its $53 Billion Hess Acquisition & Legal Victory Over Exxon Really Mean!
Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy
BHP Battling Rising Costs, Production Challenges
New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Equity raise to progress Tariki gas storage
DRX: Signs Five-Year Contract for $35-40M Annually

Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)

By Sanghyun Park

Korea’s first full-scale tax reform in 3 years sets the stage for rate tweaks and deduction shifts—follow-up amendment bills usually get fast-tracked with high legislative priority.
Dividend tax tweak could be the biggest near-term mover—eligibility widens, but tax cut shrinks. Focus shifts to names hiking payout, not just high-yielders—key for positioning.
I screened target names with FY1/FY2 payout data and narrowed to KRW 1T+ stocks showing ≥10% YoY payout growth—likely short-term momentum plays ahead of the tax overhaul.

Venture Global (VG) Six Month Summary: Failed IPO Shows How Fast Wall Street Love Can Fade

Venture Global, Inc.’s IPO was one of the largest capital raises of the year, pulling in $1.75 billion through the sale of 70 million shares at $25.00 per share.
In the months following the IPO, the performance worsened. By April, Venture Global shares had plunged to a low of $6.75, marking a staggering 73% decline from its IPO price.
Regaining credibility will require not only strong quarterly results but also a sustained effort to rebuild institutional confidence.

Kinder Morgan: Haynesville Gas Gathering Expansion for Robust Growth Potential In Pipeline Utilization!

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) delivered quarterly results that highlighted notable financial performance and forwardlooking business prospects, especially in the context of the growing international demand for natural gas.
Positively, Kinder Morgan reported strong financial growth, with adjusted EBITDA and EPS increasing by 6% and 12% respectively compared to the second quarter of 2024.
The company expects to exceed its budget for 2025, buoyed by the promising acquisition of Outrigger Energy.

Chevron Just Won Big: What Its $53 Billion Hess Acquisition & Legal Victory Over Exxon Really Mean!

Chevron has officially closed its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation following a decisive arbitration victory over ExxonMobil, marking one of the most consequential moves in the global oil and gas sector this decade.
The long-disputed deal had been mired in uncertainty due to Exxon’s contractual claims over Hess’s stake in the Guyana oil fields—a globally significant resource discovery with multi-decade production potential.
However, a panel of international arbitrators sided with Chevron and Hess, clearing the way for the transaction to proceed.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy

By Massif Capital Research

Our commentary this week is more limited and slightly disjointed, as we are not seeing any clear narratives or themes to focus on.
Here are a few charts that caught our attention in flipping this week’s chartbook.
Our tactical breadth charts, specifically for metals and mining stocks, suggest that a reversal of the recent rise may be in the cards.

BHP Battling Rising Costs, Production Challenges

By FNArena

BHP Group’s fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25.
Weaker commodity pricing and delays at Jansen potash provided negative offsets

New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Equity raise to progress Tariki gas storage

By Auctus Advisors

• New Zealand Energy (NZE) has raised C$3 mm of new equity priced at C$0.18 per share.
The proceeds of the raise will fund the desktop studies required to prepare the field development plan, derisking the gas storage project ahead of expected monetization within the next 12 months.
It will also fund the repayment of the convertible note.

DRX: Signs Five-Year Contract for $35-40M Annually

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • ADF secured a five-year Québec energy contract for $35M-$40M annually, with a five-year extension option, totalling nearly $400M.
• The deal diversifies revenue outside the U.S. and adds long-term, recurring income, reducing exposure to market cyclicality.
• Q2 financials will be released in September, we are expecting revenue of $58.2M, 22% gross margin, and EBITDA of $10.0M.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 24

Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Post Holdings, Doosan Corp, CK Hutchison Holdings, Korea Fuel Tech, General Electric , 3M Co, Fastenal Co, Virgin Australia Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Vestas Wind Systems A/S and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade
CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches
Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp
GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!
3M’s Power Moves Against Tariffs & FX Shocks: What Is Its Survival Strategy!
Fastenal Company: Will Its Expansion Of E-commerce Capabilities Help Them Up The Ante?
Can Virgin Succeed This Time?
A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium
Vestas Wind Systems: Initiation Of Coverage- An Insight Into Offshore Wind Market Dynamics & Key Growth Levers!

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

As short-term rates rise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).
Preceding my comments on Japan Post – and Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.
Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.

CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches

By Arun George

The 145-day exclusivity period between CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) and the BlackRock-TiL consortium for the politically charged ports deal ends on July 27.
The transaction is in limbo as China’s preferred pathway for approval (COSCO is included in the consortium as an equal partner) has several issues.
It is equally probable that the deal will be finalised in some shape or form or fall apart. With shares up 31% and nearing a five-year high, take profits.

Korea Small Cap Gem #41: Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp

By Douglas Kim

Korea Fuel Tech (123410 KS) is the 41st company in our Korea Small Cap Gem Series.
Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp is a Korean automotive components manufacturer specializing in emissions control systems, fuel system parts, and other auto plastic parts.
Three key investment highlights include key beneficiary of growing demand for carbon canisters used in hybrid vehicles, compelling valuations, and sharp increase in operating margins/ROE.

GE Aerospace’s New Focus: How LEAP Engine Retrofits & $4B in Services Could Up Their Game!

General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s second quarter of 2025 earnings report reflects a robust performance and a constructive outlook characterized by growth in revenue, profits, and operational efficiencies.
The company continues to leverage its strong position within the aerospace industry, both in commercial and defense sectors, to sustain and enhance its performance metrics.
In the reported quarter, GE Aerospace exhibited solid growth across several financial parameters.

3M’s Power Moves Against Tariffs & FX Shocks: What Is Its Survival Strategy!

3M Company’s recent earnings presentation highlighted a mixed performance across different metrics, reflecting both strides in operational efficiency and challenges from macroeconomic factors.
With an adjusted earnings per share of $2.16, up 12% year-over-year and surpassing expectations, 3M reported a solid quarter.
Organic sales growth of 1.5% showed a third consecutive quarter of growth across all business groups, demonstrating some resilience despite external challenges.

Fastenal Company: Will Its Expansion Of E-commerce Capabilities Help Them Up The Ante?

Fastenal Company’s Q2 2025 results demonstrated a notable blend of achievements and challenges.
The quarter marked a milestone with sales exceeding $2 billion for the first time, reflecting an 8.6% year-over-year increase.
This growth, the strongest since early 2023, primarily stemmed from strategic market share gains, effective execution of the company’s strategic plan, and incremental pricing actions aimed at countering supply chain cost pressures.

Can Virgin Succeed This Time?

By FNArena

Virgin Australia ((VGN)) is back for another go (which brings the name into question), having entered administration as a result of covid before being revived under private equity ownership.
Australia’s second airline has returned to listed life with a simplified portfolio and strategy that, Ord Minnett believes, should resonate well with investors attracted to the relatively high quality/low risk Australian domestic aviation market.
The broker sees a compelling earnings outlook into FY26, with relatively stable fares, falling fuel expenses, and transformation benefits.

A/H Premiums & Recent Listings Performance-Changing Trends but Quality Matters More than the Premium

By Sumeet Singh

With a spate of A/H listings already done in the first half and a lot more in the pipeline, we look at some of the trends from the recent listings.
In this note, we will also talk about how the A/H premiums have moved since our last note in March 2025.
Overall, recent A/H listings have somewhat reversed the trend of past A/H listings not doing much in the near term, with a few exceptions.

Vestas Wind Systems: Initiation Of Coverage- An Insight Into Offshore Wind Market Dynamics & Key Growth Levers!