This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead
- Samsung’s potential Intel stake highlights need for packaging know-how, not customers, and provides a hedge if its 2nm yields or production slip.
- TSMC extends lead with stable N3, on-track N2, AI packaging dominance, and customer migrations, while Samsung’s foundry share declines below 8%.
- Implications: Positive for TSMC (2330 TT), negative signal for Samsung (005930 KS), validating for Intel (INTC US) though regulatory and governance constraints remain important.
2. Nidec (6594 JP): Wait for Hard Numbers
- Nidec dropped 22% on Thursday following management’s decision to establish an independent committee to investigate accounting irregularities. It bounced back nearly 5% on Friday, but finished the week down 20%.
- In June, the Company received approval to postpone submitting its FY Mar-25 securities report until September 26. In July, it released incomplete 1Q results while postponing full disclosure.
- Without correct numbers, we can only guess at the full impact of the accounting irregularities and their effect on management.
3. Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.
- We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Historically Extreme Level; ASE Bounces Off Parity
- TSMC: 26.2% Premium; Historically Extreme Level to Open Fresh Short of the Spread
- UMC: +1.0% Premium: Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short
- ASE: +2.7% Premium; Open Fresh Longs of ADR Spread Closer to Parity
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)
- In December 2021, Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) announced a complex but lower-impact move to increase float share count in order to stay listed on TSE Prime.
- Scheme: buyback from two holders plus CB issuance. Unfortunately, shares did not rise enough to convert the CBs so as of March 2025, the tradable share criteria was not met.
- So now the two main holders are selling more shares and the company is diluting holders with new issuance to get float/tradable shares up with a US$280mm offering.
2. [Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown
- Today post-close, Lifedrink (2585 JP) announced the Sunrise PE funds which own 22% of the company will sell their stake in a clean-up offering with pricing in 8 days.
- This offering comes 8 trading days after a new post-earnings all-time-high. At 24x ADV, the offering will increase Max Real World Float by 50+%.
- There are some index and buyback supply/demand dynamics to note. It’s a heavy offering, so bullish/bearish may be a matter of horizon.
3. Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance
- Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
- The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
- In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.
4. Shandong Gold Mining Placement – H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares
- Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
- The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
5. Hesai Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Recovering, a Look at Possible Trading Setup
- Hesai Group (HSAI US) plans to raise around US$200-300m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 31st August 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
- In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.
6. ECM Weekly (1 September 2025)- Nissan, Metaplanet, Indigo, Laopu, Akeso, Mixue, Aux, Orion, Chery
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, a number of company’s appear to be lining up to launch their IPOs in the coming month.
- On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region.
7. Koei Tecmo Placement: Some Non-Fundamental Selling; but Weak Fundamentals
- Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) is looking to raise around US$270m from a primary and secondary placement.
- The deal is a large one to digest, representing 37.6 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 6.1% of the shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
8. Simcere Pharma Placement – First Primary Raising, past Deals Have Been Mixed
- Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is looking to raise around US$200m via a top-up placement.
- This is the first primary raising by the company since its listing. There have been a few secondary deals, with mixed results.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
9. Hesai Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Hesai Group (HSAI US), a global leader in LiDAR solutions, is seeking to raise US$300 million through an H Share listing.
- On 9 February 2023, Hesai listed on the Nasdaq, raising US$190 million at US$19.00 per ADS.
- The investment case is based on a solid competitive positioning, high growth, emerging profitability, declining cash burn, and a reasonable valuation.
10. Orion Breweries IPO – Smaller Scale Warrants Discount
- Orion Breweries Limited’s (409A JT) operations span across alcoholic beverages, tourism and hotel businesses, aiming to raise ~US$126m in its Japan IPO via a mix of primary and secondary offerings.
- Orion Breweries (OBL) has a strong Okinawa market position. Share of overseas sales has been growing (~23% of FY25 revenues), while profitability has also largely been steady.
- In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the peer comparison and IPO valuations.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen
- Honda Motor (7267 JP) and Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) have arranged to buy Honda’s 69.7%-owned subsidiary Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) in a Tender Offer.
- The transaction structure means Motherson buys Yutaka for less than net cash but even assuming Motherson pay minority TOB price for everything, TOB ex-net cash = 0.05x PBR, <1x EBITDA.
- But they are paying less. They are paying ¥12.4bn less than net cash, and getting the other ¥58bn of net assets (¥23bn inventory, the rest in hard assets) for free.
2. Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers
- Korean equities are stalled; macro catalysts are absent. Street focus shifts from treasury share cancellations to next year’s mandatory tender offers, now seen as the top policy driver.
- Pre-MTO trades focus on holding companies with wide NAV discounts or low controlling stakes, front-running policy-driven re-ratings before minority shareholders capture control premiums.
- Focus on 32 Korean holding companies >KRW 500B; those with wide NAV discounts and lighter controlling stakes—SK’s holding companies, Samsung C&T, Hanwha, LG, LS—are prime re-rating plays.
3. ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote
- On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
- ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently.
- The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain.
4. Merger Arb Mondays (01 Sep) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Kangji, Mayne, Santos, Shibaura, CareNet
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
5. HKBN (1310 HK): Mobile’s Offer Is Done. Now For The Back End
- China Mobile (941 HK)‘s Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) will be declared unconditional tomorrow (3rd September), the first closing date.
- As I type, 19.03% of shares out have tendered, lifting Mobile’s stake to 48.9%. Additional shares will tip in today and tomorrow, as per your typical last minute flurry.
- It is not Mobile’s intention to delist HKBN. There will be investors playing the backend on the expectation of a higher Offer down the track.
6. HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
- HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)’s offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.075 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is September 3.
- Based on CCASS data, including acceptances, China Mobile’s shareholding was 48.93% of outstanding shares as of September 1.
- Therefore, the offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and for a September 12 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.5%/15.7%.
7. Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head
- Effissimo reported a 5.87% ownership ratio in Pacific Industrial (7250 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,235.91 per share is 9.1% above the JPY2,050 MBO offer.
- Effissimo buying significantly above terms is justifiable as the offer implied a P/B of 0.71x. Effissimo is agitating for either a bump or an opportunity to participate in the back-end.
- With the offer closing on 8 September and shares trading 16.9% above terms, the Ogawas have little choice but to revise terms.
8. Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]
- Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
- The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price). Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million).
- This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.
9. Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case
- Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, has increased his Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) to an 18.36% ownership ratio at an average buy-in price of JPY4,154.28 vs. the JPY4,140 tender offer.
- Crucially, in today’s disclosure, Takateru Murakami outlines the rationale for his stake building, which centres on the book value being materially understated if certain land were revalued at market rates.
- Maintaining current terms is increasingly not a viable option. Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is likely to pursue a strategy of either increasing its offer or lowering the minimum acceptance condition.
10. Curator’s Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China’s Property Pulse
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China’s bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Maybe Soon Is Time to BUY…
- In our previous insight we correctly forecasted a short-lived, 2-3 weeks relief rally for BYD (1211 HK) , followed by a new downtrend (started this week).
- The stock went into OVERSOLD territory according to our model, this week. It’s however a bit early to BUY, the stock could fall more.
- If BYD reaches 102 next week, or the following week, that would be a very good place to BUY. A catalyst could bring the stock back to 140-150.
2. Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025
- September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.
- Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.
3. Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: What Cones Reveal in Tencent, HSBC, Meituan & More
- Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights:Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK),Meituan (3690 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), and JD.com (9618 HK) all display historically cheap implied volatility. Read on for trade suggestions.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
4. GOLD Outlook: Still a Good Time to BUY? Or Too Late?
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been flat since April but started to take off after mid-August.
- Question: from a purely tactical perspective, is it still a good time to buy Gold? The precious metal is massively overbought at the moment, according to our model.
- Our tactical forecast: Gold (GOLD COMDTY)could go a bit higher, but it is so overbought that the short-term upside is probably limited.
5. Alibaba (9988 HK): Stock Surges Post-Earnings, Options Market Reprices
- Context:Alibaba (9988 HK) reported Q1 results on 29 Aug. Despite a revenue miss, strong cloud growth and its AI chip announcement drove the stock up double digits.
- Highlight: Implied volatility deflated sharply post-earnings, with the September contract down 8.5% and back months also lower, while skew shifted down in parallel.
- Why it matters: Put the current volatility surface into context. This insight can serve as a case study of how earnings-driven repricing can inform positioning ahead of future events.
6. Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets
- Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.
- Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.
- Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.
7. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus
- Market breadth remained weak as option activity slowed and speculation concerns lingered around speculative trading.
- Option demand cooled, led by waning interest in Calls, while heavyweights in Consumer Discretionary kept overall volumes supported.
- Trading momentum slowed, but sector heavyweights maintained dominance, with implied vols drifting lower across much of the market.
8. S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
- In our latest ASX200 insight, posted on Aug 22nd, we wrote: “The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally“.
- The rally ended last week, as predicted: the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is falling this week, it has already reached OVERSOLD support levels according to our model.
- Attached you can find an Excel file with all the data (key supp/res level with probabilities, check row # 12), our new forecast in detailed in the insight.
9. Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: September 1 – September 5
- A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.
- OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , BYD (1211 HK) , S&P/ASX 200 , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY)
- OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Nasdaq-100 , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. EA: Defying Disinflationary Narratives
- Dovish hopes for EA disinflation continue to be disappointed by resilient outcomes. The rise to 2.1% in August amid sticky core pressures is opposite to the dovish narrative.
- Euro appreciation’s disinflationary shock is being offset by domestic resilience, which was most surprising in Northern Europe. Our errors were relatively small and balanced.
- Ongoing upside surprises have defied recent consensus expectations of a drift down to 1.8%. The ECB faces broad upside news that should reassure it against cutting again.
2. Cutting After Pauses
- The BoE and Fed rarely resume cutting cycles after a pause, yet the Fed seems set to break its hold with a cut just as the BoE and ECB enter their own pauses.
- 2002-03 is the best historical parallel for the Fed, which signals potential cuts should be shallow and are likely to be reversed. Politics is no match for the fundamental need.
- Persistently excessive UK pressures should prevent the BoE from cutting in November or beyond, with a quarterly pause historically unlikely to resolve in another rate cut.
3. HEW: Pauses On And Off
- Another disappointing payroll release provides the fundamental cover needed for the Fed to end its pause with a rate cut on 17 September without being too political.
- The BoE is starting its own pause, and if it goes a quarter without cutting, historically, it’s not resumed the cycle. Its DMP survey confirmed inflation’s persistent problem.
- Another upside inflation surprise seems set to keep the ECB on hold amid record low unemployment. We also expect it to preserve its view that policy is in a good place.
4. Liz Truss on the ‘Doom Loop’ Engulfing the UK Economy
- Legacy systems can’t handle usage-based billing, slowing down product launches
- Metronome allows for quick roll out of new pricing models in minutes
- Guest interview with Liz Truss discussing economic challenges and the need for policy shifts
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
5. BoE Survey Says Inflation Persists
- CFOs are telling the BoE that they plan to keep raising prices by more than 3% in 2026. The BoE should take notice, as this survey’s previous warnings have proven accurate.
- Expected increases reflect the passthrough of further wage increases beyond a pace consistent with the target. They exceed even our already hawkish forecasts.
- The BoE is unlikely to realise the sharp drop in wage growth it expects by year’s end, without a shock to break the current regime, bolstering our call for no more rate cuts.
6. HEM: Politicised Policy Pricing
- Persistent inflationary pressures pared dovish guidance and pricing for the BoE and ECB, but Fed pricing is stuck.
- Blocking a rare resumption of Fed easing looks unlikely, but history suggests cuts would be shallow and reversed.
- Peer pressure is weak during a policy mistake. The BoE faces domestic problems that prevent further easing.
7. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (August 2025)
- Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 11.34% in October outperforming its benchmark and HK indexes. The portfolio’s Sharpe ratio increased to 2.91 and the beta and correlation to its benchmark decreased.
- The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio is generating significant alpha (idiosyncratic) returns since launch, with 40% of returns represented by superior stock selection, with the remaining due to sector weighting.
- At the end of August, we bought Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK) for the portfolio as retail demand for gold products in mainland China increases.
8. 182: Private Credit: Hype, Hazard, or the Next Big Thing in Long-Term Growth? With Huw Van Steeni…
- Private assets, gold, and real estate are recommended for investment to recreate what our parents had financially
- Private credit is reshaping wealth portfolios, with a shift towards insurance companies funding the majority of assets in private credit
- The role of private credit has grown significantly post-financial crisis, with a focus on higher quality, lower risk assets and loans to hard assets such as infrastructure.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
9. Everything is a bit Brown
- We often talk of people wanting things to be Black and White and being disconcerted when they realise that they are in fact always Grey, but we would extend that metaphor to the full colour spectrum.
- We want things to be clear and bright and in vivid colour, but in fact everything is, well, basically a bit brown, the colour you get when all the other paints are mixed together and thus, to us at least, it represents the current and pervading sense of muddle and confusion.
- Politically, we see Red socialists embracing Green issues as their central policy, while Greens are pursuing Red Marxism (the author James Delingpole wrote a great book about this called ‘Watermelons’ as in Green on the outside, Red on the inside. But we would just merge the two colours and get brown.)
10. We Know More Than We Can Say Precisely
- The current and expected deterioration of the underlying fiscal trend is troubling
- But the empirical and theoretical relationships between fiscal variables and longer-term interest rates are complex
- My decomposition of longer-term rates and econometric estimates can potentially add to the available research on this
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount
- TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread
- UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
- ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity
2. Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective
- Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.
- Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged.
- TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV).
3. Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC’s Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute
- Apple Secures Over Half of TSMC’s Cutting-Edge 2nm Capacity; How TSMC Anchors Apple’s Product Leadership Strategy
- NVIDIA Results Key Take-Away: Long-Reasoning AI Models Driving Massive Compute Demand
- Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity
- TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Fresh Short of the Spread
- UMC: -0.6% Discount; Wait for More Extreme ADR Spread Level
- ASE: +0.4% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
5. Silergy (6415.TT): 3Q25 Revenue Flat to Slightly Up QoQ; Annual Growth May Fall Short of 20%+.
- 3Q25: Revenue flat to slightly up QoQ; GM stable at 52–54%. FY25: Prior 20%+ growth target unlikely to be achieved; weaker demand due to trade war & customer conservatism.
- No evidence of significant market share loss; instead, delayed demand.
- Automotive Ssegment continues to trend upward with new EV-related products. Competition in China is intense, especially EVs, but pricing remains rational.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great
- Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP).
- The discount seems enticing, however, the company’s recent share performance and longer term track record aren’t great.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
2. Akeso Inc Placement – Another Opportunistic Raise, Mixed past Deal but Is Relatively Small
- Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise around US$460m from a mix of primary placement and selldown by its founders.
- Past deals in the name have been mixed, but the shares have been doing well and the deal size remains small.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
3. Laopu Gold Placement – Relatively Small Deal, past One Did Well
- What seems to be the controlling shareholder of Laopu Gold (6181 HK), aims to raise around US$250m via selling 1.6% of the company.
- The shares have done very well since its listing and the previous deal in the name did well too.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
4. Metaplanet Placement: US$1bn Punt; Dependent on Bitcoin Performance
- Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
- The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 23.7% of total shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
5. MIXUE IPO Lockup – US$480m Cornerstone Lockup Release
- Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
6. Aux Electric IPO: Smallest Player but Superior Growth and Margins
- Aux Electric (2580 HK) is looking to raise up to US$460m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is one of the global top five air conditioner providers, with capabilities covering the design, R&D, production, sales and related services of household and central air conditioners.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
7. Aux Electric IPO (2580 HK): Valuation Insights
- Aux Electric (2580 HK) is the fifth-largest air conditioner provider globally as measured by volume. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$462 million.
- I discussed the investment case in Aux Electric IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive.
8. Ganfeng Lithium Group Co Placement – Past Deals Record Isn’t Great but Deal Is Small
- Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) is looking to raise upto US$152m via a primary placement of 40m shares. There is also a concurrent CB offering for ~HKD1.3bn along with the placement.
- The company intends to use the proceeds towards repayment of loans, capacity expansion and construction, replenishment of working capital and other general corporate purposes.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
9. Robotis – Rights Offering of 100 Billion Won
- On 28 August, Robotis (108490 KS) announced a rights offering capital increase of 100 billion won.
- Rights offering plan is to allocate 1,349,528 new shares (10% of outstanding shares) to existing shareholders, and then conduct a public offering for general investors once forfeited shares are issued.
- The expected rights offering price is 74,100 won per share (12.8% lower than current price). We are Negative on this rights offering.
10. Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Second US$800m+ Deal by Co-Founder This Year
- InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) co-founder, Rakesh Gangwal, aims to raise around US$802m via selling around a 3% stake in Indigo.
- He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with his co-founder Rahul Bhatia. He has sold many times before.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing
- Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) has announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm.
- The same day as the dual proposals, Dongfeng announced an interim loss (1H25). Evidently, the way forward – from an investor standpoint – is electric, not internal combustion engines.
- The cash terms + scrip (into the EV listing) under the proposals are attractive. Even after this morning’s move (+53.6%) in Dongfeng’s share price.
2. Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).
3. [Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
- Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
- Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
- Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”
4. PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
- Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price.
- True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
- Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.
5. A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
- It was announced today that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will merge with HD Hyundai Mipo. The merger ratio between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo is 1:0.4059146.
- HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) will own a 66.29% stake in the merged entity.
- HD KSOE is proceeding with this merger of its two major subsidiaries ahead of the full-scale launch of the MASGA (“Make America Shipbuilding Great Again”) project.
6. Near-Term Flows to Watch on Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation in Korea
- Dems likely to push 3rd package in Q4; near-term flows chasing treasury stock cancellation theme, with locals screening >₩1tn mkt cap, >10% treasury shares of float.
- Little pushback on mandatory treasury cancellations; debate focused on timeline — grace period vs. immediate rollout — highlighting how much leeway government may grant differing governance structures.
- Too early for governance plays; near-term momentum flows likely in names with highest treasury stock relative to float, where cancellation is expected to hit flows hardest.
7. [Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder
- When EQT launched its deal for Carenet Inc (2150 JP) two weeks ago, I thought it opaque, and light, and strangely lacking in information which should be there.
- It has not gotten clearer, though three days ago, the largest foreign shareholder as of the announcement reported they had lowered their position by 3.77% (4.22% of votes).
- Then yesterday, someone else reported they had gone above 5%. The data implied in that filing suggests this may have legs. I’d buy through terms.
8. ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition
- ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained.
- The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64).
- The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.
9. HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities
- HHI–Mipo merger spread looks minimal, but today’s MASGA-driven pop signals momentum flows—likely to mean-revert toward appraisal rights once the theme dissipates.
- Froth lifted prices past fundamentals—once it unwinds, HHI–Mipo could diverge from swap ratio, creating the spread window where traders can get paid.
- This isn’t classic merger arb—it’s about fading a policy-fueled pop, riding the snapback toward appraisal baseline, with flow-driven swings creating short-term tactical arb setups.
10. Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days
- On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
- The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
- Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
- In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
- The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
- Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.
2. Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades Ahead of Earnings
- Alibaba (9988 HK) will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.
- Highlights: Recent option trades show a bias towards bullish sentiment. Two strategies using weekly options expiring soon after the earnings announcement are explored.
- Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning ahead of Tencent’s earnings.
3. Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts
- Context: After three consecutive up weeks, Toyota (7203 JP) / Toyota ADR (TM US) now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.
- Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.
- Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.
4. Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Recap & Volatility Dynamics
- Xiaomi (1810 HK) reported 2Q25 results on 19 Aug, beating expectations. This Insight analyzes price reactions in Hong Kong and two overseas markets.
- Highlights: Implied volatility dropped sharply post-earnings, both across the term structure and skew.
- Why it matters: With Xiaomi’s implied volatility now at historically cheap levels, investors may find opportunities in long-volatility strategies ahead of the next earnings in November.
5. Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29
- A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 25 – August 29. .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
- OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet, S&P 500 INDEX , Tesla , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , ASX 200 INDEX , CSI 300 Index , HSI INDEX.
- OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Softbank Group (9984 JP).
6. NIFTY 50 Tactical View: Risk-Off Scenario Before Sep-30 Rebalance + Tariffs Impact
- As forecasted in our previous insight, the NIFTY Index rallied past 25k, but we said this was a BEARISH pattern – rally was short-lived (2 weeks), then this week down.
- Effective September 30 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) and Max Healthcare Institute will be added to the NIFTY, replacing Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank, in the meanwhile 50% US tariffs kicked in.
- We see a potential continuation of the recent bearishness with a RISK-OFF scenario where the index could drop to much lower prices in September, support target 23819 or below.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Russia/Ukraine: What Now?
- A week after the event, it is clear that the Trump/Putin summit presented the latter with a big win at little, if any, cost.
- Donald Trump is unlikely to come up with anything that will bring Mr Putin to the negotiating table in good faith once his latest two-week ‘deadline’ expires.
- Furthermore, Mr Trump remains philosophically inclined to favour Russia, a leaning that probably poses a greater risk to Kyiv than Mr Putin himself does.
2. HEW: Policy Under Pressure
- President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Cook, potentially gaining a supportive majority on the Fed, raises the risk that US policy overstimulates the economy.
- Policy peers should not be pressured to mirror mistakes. The ECB faces data that keep accumulating hawkish pressures, but others are more susceptible, like the BOK.
- Non-farm payroll data provide the last hope of blocking a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, a rise in EA inflation to 2.1% should help rule out another ECB rate cut.
3. DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0
- Founder of the DeFi Report and Web3 Strategist, NATO, shares his journey, advice for innovators, and trends shaping asset tokenization, venture capital, and AI convergence.
- Inflation report and Fed’s monetary policy decision discussed, with core inflation increasing 3.1% year over year and market pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut in September.
- Summary of market performance, with crude falling, value rally in US equities, and Ray Dalio’s recommendation to invest in non US equities in local currency.
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4. A Monetary View on US Inflation
- The current neglect on the role played by money supply and the monetary base is, in our view a serious analytical gap
- In a nutshell, we think private money growth – defined as M2 minus monetary base- is right now in a Goldilocks phase. This augurs well for US inflation
- With the Fed inclined to ease rather than tighten, and with inflation shocks likely to prove one-off, risk assets remain supported
5. ECB Easing Transmits Need To Hold Rates
- ECB rate cuts are stimulating a trend rise in lending growth to levels consistent with no change in policy, as the monetary transmission mechanism delivers the easing.
- Activity surveys are less bullish, but reflect stagnant supply-side potential that can’t be fixed by stimulating demand, which would merely stoke the inflation problem.
- Potentially inappropriate Fed easing does not raise peer pressure like fundamental US weakness would. Domestic news dominates and supports our ECB call for no change.
6. Late 1990s Bubble Comparison to Current Cycle Requires Nuanced Analysis
- Despite the growing chorus of comparisons, the backdrop to the late 1990s equity bubble was fundamentally different from the current environment, notably in the manner of Fed policy conduct.
- During the late 1990s, Fed policy conduct was characterised by pivots, particularly after the Asian financial crisis and bailout of Long Term Capital Management, helping to prolong the equity bubble.
- Forward P/E multiples on US equities were more elevated in the late 1990s compared with current levels. Valuations have been more volatile in the current cycle, courtesy of Fed policy.
7. Proposed GST Reforms: Double Diwali Bonanza or Double Whammy?
- GST reforms are set to change with centre proposing a two-rate structure of 5 and 18 per cent
- The announcement is aimed at boosting consumption in the mid-long run, curtailing effects of current higher tariffs.
- However, timing is of utmost importance. Any delay or adverse stance on the rollout could have significant ramifications for the overall economy and the festive season.
8. To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question
- How should investors judge Trumponomics? The question isn’t whether tariffs or anti-immigration policies should be imposed, but to judge their long run effects on growth, inflation and productivity.
- While it’s too early to render a full judgment of Trumponomics and his policies, it may be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain.
- The preliminary report card is mostly a case of pain and not gain.
9. Asian Equities: Eleven Robust Earnings Gainers Post Reporting Season
- Near the end of the earnings reporting season, our earnings estimate tracker identified 11 robust earnings estimate gainers – with consensus EPS estimates up across 3-month and 6-month time horizons.
- Onshore China communications and financials, HK technology, Korean and Singapore financials are the prominent “winner” sectors. Five other ASEAN sectors also figure on the list.
- Earlier, in June, we detected 16 “consistent winner” market-sectors. The earnings environment has deteriorated slightly. Of the prominent stocks, Tencent, Hana Financials and DBS Group figure in our Model Portfolio.
10. China Economics: Policy Confusion Risks Worsening Demand Slump
- Transitory factors that drove China’s stronger-than-expected growth in the first half of 2025 are starting to fade, with hits to investment and consumption demand imminent in 2H25.
- But Beijing is in a bind on its policy response: it is rolling out demand-supporting measures but it is also keen to cut excess capacity and enforce public sector frugality.
- The net impact is that economic growth to decelerate significantly in 2H25. More stimulus measures will be dribbled out but its impact will be stymied by conflicting aims and adverse